will25u said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

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Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

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So Trump gets an all time low against Michelle?

Mike Obama would be a horrible president (well we all know who would be president).

Likely. It's also possibly one that is set up with questions like: In light of President Biden's disastrous debate performance increase concerns about his cognitive abilities, who are you voting for between Joe Biden and his opponent?

it will be slightly more difficult to play that race card against VP Byron Donalds... which is probably why Trump is going to pick Burgrum or something lol.

stink eye can't take the smoke, but it would be fun to watch her deal with what's in store. her

will25u said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

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Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

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Gas lighting, no way it would be that lopsided. Earlier poll had Trump up 3 on her, no telling how people will see it

2023NCAggies said:

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will25u said:

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GenericAggie said:

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Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

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Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

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Gas lighting, no way it would be that lopsided. Earlier poll had Trump up 3 on her, no telling how people will see it

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Exactly. She wouldn't make it.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752020-vice-president-harris-trump-biden-poll/

And yes, it is a CNN poll. Simply adding it to the thread, nothing more, nothing less.

Rapier108 said:

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752020-vice-president-harris-trump-biden-poll/

And yes, it is a CNN poll. Simply adding it to the thread, nothing more, nothing less.

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So Kamala has lower approval ratings but runs better than Biden against Trump.

We gave too many people in this country the right to vote.

This a thread about polls. Any new polling today

Dems have an enthusiasm problem.

NEW @CBSNews poll:

—Trump has a 3-point edge across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally. 

—Republicans say the debate made them more likely to vote.

—If you factor in 3rd party candidates, Trump leads Biden nationally by 4 points. pic.twitter.com/CuzPKjTSwX

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) July 3, 2024

will25u said:

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Dems have an enthusiasm problem.

NEW @CBSNews poll:

—Trump has a 3-point edge across the battleground states collectively, and a 2-point edge nationally. 

—Republicans say the debate made them more likely to vote.

—If you factor in 3rd party candidates, Trump leads Biden nationally by 4 points. pic.twitter.com/CuzPKjTSwX

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) July 3, 2024

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If Trump is tied or leads nationally come election day, he will crush the Dems.

(NY Times/Siena poll)
Trump's lead:
Whites w/o college: +39
Men: +27
Didn't Vote in 2020: +22
Gen X: +20
Whites: +19
Independents: +10
Hispanics: +9
Suburbanites: +4

Biden's lead:
Blacks: +58
City Dwellers: +15
Whites w/ college: +11
Women: +7
Seniors: +4

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) July 3, 2024

will25u said:

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(NY Times/Siena poll)
Trump's lead:
Whites w/o college: +39
Men: +27
Didn't Vote in 2020: +22
Gen X: +20
Whites: +19
Independents: +10
Hispanics: +9
Suburbanites: +4

Biden's lead:
Blacks: +58
City Dwellers: +15
Whites w/ college: +11
Women: +7
Seniors: +4

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) July 3, 2024

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Sure wish they would clarify if that's all registered voters, likely to vote, etc.

Don't have the cross tabs, but I think the top line was Trump +6 LV, Trump +8 RV.

📊 NEW JERSEY GE: (R) internal

🟥 Trump: 43%
🟦 Biden: 41%
⬜ Undecided: 16%
—
🟦 Biden: 38%
🟥 Trump: 38%
🟨 Kennedy: 8%
🟩 Stein: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 13%
—
🟦 Kim: 35%
🟥 Bashaw: 33%
🟨 Menendez: 6%
⬜ Undecided: 26%
---
H2H
🟦 Kim: 41%
🟥 Bashaw: 39%
⬜ Undecided: 20%
—… pic.twitter.com/QB8XkPPrv3

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 3, 2024

I have updated my analysis of the latest polls. This go round I compared 2020 results to 2024 most recent state polls to 2024 adj 2020 results based on region adjustment from latest NY Times region %s (Link to NY Poll)

2020 Results Electoral Votes (Actual)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____56______59
Northeast___94______0
South______42______151
West______109______19

Total_______306____232 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)

2024 Polls implied Electoral Votes (looking at individual states)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____30______85
Northeast___54______40 (New Jersey latest Poll has Trump up)
South______26______167
West______92______36

Total_______202____328 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)

2024 Region Adj Polls of 2020 results Electoral Votes (looking at adjustment to individual states)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____20______95 (Flips Minnesota to Trump)
Northeast___68______26 (NJ is still for Biden based on this method)
South______13______180 (has Virginia going R)
West______92______36

Total_______193____337 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)

What the above says, ignoring that most of the state polls are pre debate; is a convergence of region polling and state results. What is even bigger is that the NYT poll had women +5% over men. So it is not generous in selection.

Where did this come from?

Man we need to be providing sources to stuff like that.

nortex97 said:

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Does Garvey have a shot?

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LOL no.

Losing by 10 would be a great result. Twenty is more likely.

[Staff note to the board and not directed at this specific poster: We cleaned up the derails related to Biden's debate performance, him potentially dropping out of the race, and who his replacement would be if he did. Let's keep the comments going forward related to polls which is the OP focus of this thread. If you want to engage on those other topics, please join another thread that already exists on the topic or start a new one -- Staff]

Rockdoc said:

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Where did this come from?

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I found it; daily mail. Apparently Trump+11 vs. Harris in a LV sample size of 1,000. I wouldn't put an enormous amount of stock in that one poll though. Reuters/CNN have it much closer, but again we'd need real/larger polls after the announcement to really know anything.

Quote:

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All other names floated as possible Biden replacements Whitmer, Newsom, Transportation Secretary Peter Buttigieg lose to Trump by double digits.

But, while undoubtedly unlikeable, those Democrats are not as well-known to the public as Harris and, therefore, would likely find it easier to reform their images.

'Kamala Harris has a high name ID, which means her brand is harder to change,' said pollster James Johnson, who conducted the Mail survey. 'Unlike other candidates who are a blank slate to voters and can more easily define themselves, Harris brings a lot of baggage.'

When the Mail's poll respondents were asked to sum up the vice president in a word the most common response was 'incompetent.'

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Tramp96 said:

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will25u said:

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(NY Times/Siena poll)
Trump's lead:
Whites w/o college: +39
Men: +27
Didn't Vote in 2020: +22
Gen X: +20
Whites: +19
Independents: +10
Hispanics: +9
Suburbanites: +4

Biden's lead:
Blacks: +58
City Dwellers: +15
Whites w/ college: +11
Women: +7
Seniors: +4

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) July 3, 2024

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Sure wish they would clarify if that's all registered voters, likely to vote, etc.

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Trump is +9 with Hispanics?!?!?!

If that's for real than this is over, folks. Also means we may get some bipartisan support for border enforcement/deportations.

Harris takes the lead (for the nomination) at polymarket:

Who will be the DEM Nominee - odds by @Polymarket

Harris 42%
Biden 38%
Other 11%
M Obama 7%
Newsom 4%https://t.co/X95VbfTk9R pic.twitter.com/bMfyvPgPOG

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 5, 2024

@#$#$ why didn't Trump wait until Biden was the nominee before agreeing to debate?!?!

The RCP 2-Way National Average is fully baked with 11 polls, all post-debate: Trump leads by 3.3%. https://t.co/wJJ2okM5wh pic.twitter.com/aDT4gZxn6p

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) July 5, 2024

start practicing saying: "President Kamala Harris is unburdened by the things that burden"

Joe Biden's job approval rating has remained below 40% for the longest period since Decision Desk HQ and The Hill began tracking surveys last February.

His net approval rating of -18.7% is also the worst since then. pic.twitter.com/g3J6qrLAcX

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 5, 2024

LMCane said:

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@#$#$ why didn't Trump wait until Biden was the nominee before agreeing to debate?!?!

The RCP 2-Way National Average is fully baked with 11 polls, all post-debate: Trump leads by 3.3%. https://t.co/wJJ2okM5wh pic.twitter.com/aDT4gZxn6p

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) July 5, 2024

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Nobody predicted this, certainly not the D*ms. You really can't Monday morning QB the decision. Had Trump held back he would've been eviscerated in the press and you would have been on here saying, "Why didn't Trump agree to debate before the nomination?"

The value in polls are in the details. This is from Cyngal's July1-2nd poll. Link to Poll

• Female voters <55 moved 9pp toward Republicans; females 55+ moved 6pp to the GOP (probably could bump the Trump isn't pro-life enough thread, since this is probably in part due to that neutral stance)
• The congressional generic ballot moved from R+0 to R+4, the largest single month-over-month movement in the history of our national polling.
• Married Men +23 points Trump over Biden
• Unmarried women +17 points Biden over Trump but Married Women +9 points Trump over Biden

A certain set of people told us for months how Trump had no shot at getting the female vote. Well now we can see that those individuals should not be quitting their day jobs.

Honestly it is hard not to get excited. The democrats are in such a terrible position with no clear path to recovery or righting the ship that the outcome of Trump + Senate (with 1-2 cushion seat majority) + House looks like the most likely outcome.

Listen to Nate Silver. The time to get excited, or nervous, about the cross-tabs in any individual poll, is never.

Concentrate on the big picture: Biden is not a viable candidate. If he stays in this election to the end, Trump will win, barring some near unbelievable act of poor judgment on his part .

I would be more cautious if the most recent polls weren't all saying Trump +3. There is a lot of collaborating evidence.

Also I personally like polls that are "repeated" such as the Cyngal which can track changes.

texagbeliever said:

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The value in polls are in the details. This is from Cyngal's July1-2nd poll. Link to Poll

• Female voters <55 moved 9pp toward Republicans; females 55+ moved 6pp to the GOP (probably could bump the Trump isn't pro-life enough thread, since this is probably in part due to that neutral stance)
• The congressional generic ballot moved from R+0 to R+4, the largest single month-over-month movement in the history of our national polling.
• Married Men +23 points Trump over Biden
• Unmarried women +17 points Biden over Trump but Married Women +9 points Trump over Biden

A certain set of people told us for months how Trump had no shot at getting the female vote. Well now we can see that those individuals should not be quitting their day jobs.

Honestly it is hard not to get excited. The democrats are in such a terrible position with no clear path to recovery or righting the ship that the outcome of Trump + Senate (with 1-2 cushion seat majority) + House looks like the most likely outcome.

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I was one of those people. Honestly, no one could have predicted how badly Biden would've performed at the debate. We all knew he had dementia, but I didn't think he had declined so much since '20. Now that the media has turned on him a bunch of female voters are turning away from Biden.

texagbeliever said:

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The value in polls are in the details. This is from Cyngal's July1-2nd poll. Link to Poll

• Female voters <55 moved 9pp toward Republicans; females 55+ moved 6pp to the GOP (probably could bump the Trump isn't pro-life enough thread, since this is probably in part due to that neutral stance)
• The congressional generic ballot moved from R+0 to R+4, the largest single month-over-month movement in the history of our national polling.
• Married Men +23 points Trump over Biden
• Unmarried women +17 points Biden over Trump but Married Women +9 points Trump over Biden

A certain set of people told us for months how Trump had no shot at getting the female vote. Well now we can see that those individuals should not be quitting their day jobs.

Honestly it is hard not to get excited. The democrats are in such a terrible position with no clear path to recovery or righting the ship that the outcome of Trump + Senate (with 1-2 cushion seat majority) + House looks like the most likely outcome.

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Excellent post!

As I've stated, there has to be a lower bound which Biden is near at this point for net votes nationally, based on polls.

At some point, there has to be a lower bound on how poorly any Democrat can perform against Donald Trump, who twice lost the popular vote—but it's possible that Biden's numbers are worsening as the debate fallout continues, which is atypical of event-related polling shifts.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 3, 2024

And, if you exclude California (which is utterly irrelevant, for purposes at least of this cycle/polling), the current margin is quite shocking really. Ultimately, the Democrats should, imho, focus on saving the senate first, with a change at the top of the ticket. I think Silver agrees with this. The Senate via nominations will be key to any Trump presidency more than ever before.

Although I think any D would *probably* be an underdog to Trump, I feel better about their chances after looking at the Senate polling. Senate Dems are doing EXTREMELY will, in contrast to Biden who is doing EXTREMELY BADLY in the exact same polls. pic.twitter.com/3AhcYstPpA

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 3, 2024

YokelRidesAgain said:

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Listen to Nate Silver. The time to get excited, or nervous, about the cross-tabs in any individual poll, is never.

Concentrate on the big picture: Biden is not a viable candidate. If he stays in this election to the end, Trump will win, barring some near unbelievable act of poor judgment on his part .

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and if we're being honest, even that may not be enough to push biden over the hump. trump is just about electorally immune to consequences for his poor judgment these days. the entirety of the political spectrum is inured to it after 9 years.

93MarineHorn said:

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texagbeliever said:

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The value in polls are in the details. This is from Cyngal's July1-2nd poll. Link to Poll

• Female voters <55 moved 9pp toward Republicans; females 55+ moved 6pp to the GOP (probably could bump the Trump isn't pro-life enough thread, since this is probably in part due to that neutral stance)
• The congressional generic ballot moved from R+0 to R+4, the largest single month-over-month movement in the history of our national polling.
• Married Men +23 points Trump over Biden
• Unmarried women +17 points Biden over Trump but Married Women +9 points Trump over Biden

A certain set of people told us for months how Trump had no shot at getting the female vote. Well now we can see that those individuals should not be quitting their day jobs.

Honestly it is hard not to get excited. The democrats are in such a terrible position with no clear path to recovery or righting the ship that the outcome of Trump + Senate (with 1-2 cushion seat majority) + House looks like the most likely outcome.

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I was one of those people. Honestly, no one could have predicted how badly Biden would've performed at the debate. We all knew he had dementia, but I didn't think he had declined so much since '20. Now that the media has turned on him a bunch of female voters are turning away from Biden.

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and they will turn right back if the nominee is HARRIS!