I have updated my analysis of the latest polls. This go round I compared 2020 results to 2024 most recent state polls to 2024 adj 2020 results based on region adjustment from latest NY Times region %s (
Link to NY Poll)
2020 Results Electoral Votes (Actual)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____56______59
Northeast___94______0
South______42______151
West______109______19
Total_______306____232 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)
2024 Polls implied Electoral Votes (looking at individual states)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____30______85
Northeast___54______40 (New Jersey latest Poll has Trump up)
South______26______167
West______92______36
Total_______202____328 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)
2024 Region Adj Polls of 2020 results Electoral Votes (looking at adjustment to individual states)
Region____Biden___Trump
Midwest____20______95 (Flips Minnesota to Trump)
Northeast___68______26 (NJ is still for Biden based on this method)
South______13______180 (has Virginia going R)
West______92______36
Total_______193____337 *(regions are missing Nebraska & Maine partial EVs)
What the above says, ignoring that most of the state polls are pre debate; is a convergence of region polling and state results. What is even bigger is that the NYT poll had women +5% over men. So it is not generous in selection.