YokelRidesAgain said:

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nortex97 said:

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Is Ilhan going to somehow lose her primary, or is literally campaigning against America/Minnesota popular enough to carry her?

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She is running against the same person (Don Samuels, a Jamaican immigrant) who came within less than 2500 votes of beating her last time and appears to have more of a campaign infrastructure this go round.

It also bears repeating: Somalis make up a whopping 3% of Omar's district, which is 60% white.

Ilhan Omar is in Congress because a lot of white liberals in Minneapolis want to be represented by someone like Ilhan Omar.

Samuels has said a lot of tasteless things, but at least he isn't openly rooting for Hamas. I hope he wins.

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I suppose you are trying to make this a racialist debate but I'll decline, other than to re-state that white 'liberals' are the worst. People get the government they deserve.

Never, ever vote for a democrat. There are always at least two better choices. And polling shows…America is tiring quickly of 'Democrats' as is Europe.

LMCane said:

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we pretty much want every poll to be like this with Trump having a +5 lead

enough to stop leftist cheating,

but not too much where Biden drops out because it is impossible to win.

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Lol we're thinking alike. We need him to go all out and stay in. We all know Hunter has strong uppers, he'll give his dad a heart attack if needed

nortex97 said:

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I suppose you are trying to make this a racialist debate but I'll decline, other than to re-state that white 'liberals' are the worst. People get the government they deserve.

Never, ever vote for a democrat. There are always at least two better choices. And polling shows…America is tiring quickly of 'Democrats' as is Europe.

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I'm not "debating" anything, just pointing out that a wave of Muslim immigrants did not take over the Twin Cities, and they certainly don't have enough demographic influence to win anything other than 1 or 2 House seats in the state legislature.

As to the second point, in Minneapolis the Democratic primary is the election. If one wants to cast a protest vote in the general, go ahead, but it isn't going to make any difference as to the outcome.

In a clear-cut choice between bad and way worse, it is logical to choose bad, not vote for magical unicorn fairy dust.

will25u said:

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New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp

— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024

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Very bad news for Biden. That state seems to not like Trump much.

Also look out for Maine, looks like the rural population is coming together to make it a 3-1 score for Trump.

It's still unconscionable to vote for a Democrat, including in a Democrat party primary. Usually, that would require one to be registered as a democrat (perish the thought), but even if an open primary, writing in a non-democrat's name makes for the only patriotic alternative to supporting one who represents an enemy to the republic and people. The Democrat party represents the invasion, bankruptcy, and subjugation to outside/WEF/international forces of the people of the United States, and there are no occasions to vote for someone who willingly is a member of/identifies with the Party, which is why one of my favorite truth's is to exclaim 'never, ever vote for a Democrat.'

Anyway, more good news;

Quote:

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President Joe Biden plunged even further in Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast on Monday in the wake of his disastrous debate performance last week.

"[We've] got a string of polls in late this afternoon, they're mostly poor for Joe Biden, and they're beginning to have a bigger impact on the model," wrote Silver in Monday's forecast. "Trump now leads by 2.7 points in our national average. And Biden's win probability has dropped to 28 percent from 35 percent on debate night."

He continued, "Our guess is that more likely than not, there's some further decline ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it's almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It's not great news for the president."

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Penn:

#New General Election Poll - Pennsylvania

🔴 Trump 48% (+4)
🔵 Biden 44%

Cygnal #B - 800 LV - 6/28

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

I know incumbency is powerful but I am amazed the CCP Senate candidate in Penn is ahead relatively comfortably (though under 50) when the same poll shows Trump similarly ahead (+4). Again, individual polls don't really matter but it makes me question both results;

#New Senate Poll - Pennsylvania

🔵 Casey 46% (+4)
🔴 McCormick 42%

Cygnal #B - 800 LV - 6/28 pic.twitter.com/Cr0GrWjMAo

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024

The shift between Decision Desk HQ’s pre/post debate battleground poll averages & forecasts: pic.twitter.com/UO4GItY9Y4

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 2, 2024

will25u said:

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The shift between Decision Desk HQ’s pre/post debate battleground poll averages & forecasts: pic.twitter.com/UO4GItY9Y4

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) July 2, 2024

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What this shows is 1) the incredible bias that the media has created 2) the lack of curiosity by most Americans - I'll just listen to whatever I'm told and go with it (scary), and 3) changing people's minds is really hard.

Column on the right just means that this table is stupid. Hardly any state polls were taken post debate.

Voters are generally pretty naive or self delusional. They assume it is the personality or politician that is the problem when it is really the platform and policies. Who is implementing them is fairly irrelevant.

Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

When the Biden position is that every other Dem mentioned as a replacement, polls worse against Trump so they might as well stick with him, you know with even that weak hand, the Dem Party is in disarray.

SA68AG said:

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Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

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This.

It would be very hard to get much more than a 2 point swing either way in this cycle. If Trump holds it he will win easily.

Operation candidate swap aka new puppet installation can't come soon enough for them

.@Polymarket - Swing States Odds

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 58% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 42%
.
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 56%
🟦 Biden: 44%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 54% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 46%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 74% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 26%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 80%
🟦 Biden: 20%
.
NEVADA… https://t.co/dr7teArp4w pic.twitter.com/EahxMmARCH

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 2, 2024

This is all outstanding news...but it only applies with regard to Trump v. Biden...

I remain convinced Biden will NOT be the D on the ticket...

All bets are off when the D's replace Biden...

FireAg said:

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This is all outstanding news...but it only applies with regard to Trump v. Biden...

I remain convinced Biden will NOT be the D on the ticket...

All bets are off when the D's replace Biden...

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Trump wins handily over Harris or Newsome.

Things become more problematic if the dems nominate a moderate governor like Andy Beshear of Kentucky or
Shapiro of Pennsylvania. The Haley voters that Trump told to F - off and has never reached out to could comfortably move to Beshear or Shapiro.

Yep. Candidate swap for someone that voters didn't choose (for "democracy" of course) will narrow the MOE on these polls enough that the usual fraud, shenanigans, and chicanery in the cities can achieve desired results and muh polls become pretty irrelevant as a predictor of expected results again.

Change the puppet figurehead and 81 million will allegedly vote for open borders, attacks on the industry of our most valuable resources, and massive govt spending again.

2023NCAggies said:

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will25u said:

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New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp

— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024

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Very bad news for Biden. That state seems to not like Trump much.

Also look out for Maine, looks like the rural population is coming together to make it a 3-1 score for Trump.

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I just got back from a trip to Maine. Drove through a LOT of rural areas and I must say that there is a large Trump presence there. Trump flags everywhere.

I was just in PA. Trump yard signs and bumper stickers galore. Not one Biden sign witnessed anywhere- city, burbs, or country. That's all anecdotal though. Polls say Trump is ahead, while mailed in ballots can keep getting found and counted in the cities until predetermined desired results are achieved.

The poll leads need to climb much higher past the MOEs before the candidate swap is installed.

McCormick is a good guy but a certified loser in that race.

as I stated before, I have more Twitter followers than he does. you can't win a Senate campaign in Pennsylvania with 150 Twitter followers liking your posts.

SA68AG said:

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Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

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what no one is discussing is the 500 million dollars in cash that Trump will have:

that can buy a lot of ads showing Biden during the debate.

30 seconds of Tom Friedman and the NY Times calling Biden to step down as he can't serve

numerous news clips of "senior democrats" begging Biden to drop out.

that can gain another 1-2% of the national population.

oh no said:

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I was just in PA. Trump yard signs and bumper stickers galore. Not one Biden sign witnessed anywhere- city, burbs, or country. That's all anecdotal though. Polls say Trump is ahead, while mailed in ballots can keep getting found and counted in the cities until predetermined desired results are achieved.

The poll leads need to climb much higher past the MOEs before the candidate swap is installed.

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I'm driving up to Gettysburg for the re-enactment saturday. there is always one house along Route 15 North with a few Trump flags, but not nearly as many as back in 2016 and 2020.

hopefully that will change. Gettysburg town itself has a lot of leftists with Biden stuff out in 2020, not sure what it is like now.

there were entire stores of Trump swag on the side of highways back in 2020. it didn't matter.

bigblock said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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will25u said:

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New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp

— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024

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Very bad news for Biden. That state seems to not like Trump much.

Also look out for Maine, looks like the rural population is coming together to make it a 3-1 score for Trump.

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I just got back from a trip to Maine. Drove through a LOT of rural areas and I must say that there is a large Trump presence there. Trump flags everywhere.

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In some states up north, the rural population still outnumbers the cities, and Portland is not all Democrat. So if the Republicans were smart, they'd have permanent office and outreach groups to win that state over. A state dems likely do not care about and we can slip right on in

Minnesota has a rural population to over take the city, but for whatever reason they have not YET come together as a red solid block for that state, yet. It is getting closer.

There are some others like Virginia, where the Rs have work to do, keep permanent offices and start switching people slowly and unite the dark red of the state to all vote and maybe?

New Mexico is the same thing, that state can be turned red, one day, just keep outreaching

I wish I have 50+ billion, I would have these Dems heads blowing off

📊 POST-DEBATE POLL: @CNN

🟥 Trump: 49% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 43%
🟪 Other: 4%
---
🟥 Trump: 41% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 35%
🟨 RFK Jr: 14%
🟩 Stein: 3%
🟨 West: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 47% (+2)
🟦 DEM: 45%
—
SSRS | June 28-30 | 1,045 RVhttps://t.co/E2D7tugNam pic.twitter.com/PEV32oqGGw

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 2, 2024

CNN POLL: President Trump leads Joe Biden

Trump - 49
Biden - 43 pic.twitter.com/eRpfxMIQLB

— Steven Cheung (@TheStevenCheung) July 2, 2024

7/1 model update.

Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden. pic.twitter.com/lSESmUd4JZ

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2024

Man I could have been completely wrong on them not switching Biden out. Republicans and now some Dems officially coming out. for him to step down

I do not think it matters yet but if a wave come out than it will get very interesting. Jill is a fighter though and Biden has looked good so far since debate, they have plans in place, scripted speeches, scripted rallies, fundraising is taking off, they are back to out hauling Rs.

Old guard still on their side. and the other option is Harris lmao

I do not understand how our base is not sending (donating) money. you know there are 20 million Trump supporters, most hardcore backers, back wood whites and Hispanics that can at least send 5 dollars a month.

That is $100 million. Then if 5 million people like us would send 20 a month, that is 100 million. 200 million on top of the large donors would go a LONG WAY

We are vastly outgunned money wise, stuff like above needs to start happening if we want to start changing America and American views

oh no said:

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CNN POLL: President Trump leads Joe Biden

Trump - 49
Biden - 43 pic.twitter.com/eRpfxMIQLB

— Steven Cheung (@TheStevenCheung) July 2, 2024

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Registered voters.

Garbage poll

They are still campaigning to get Biden off ticket

Here's what has happened since 2008 -- explosion in non-major-party voters mostly a function of motor-voter law that defaults people to indie if they don't choose a party, so tens of thousands of those probably are zombies who won't vote. pic.twitter.com/0NgriezhXd

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) July 2, 2024

I feel like all these polls going towards Trump is too good to be true...

#New General Election Poll - Leaked 🔵 internal

North Carolina- 🔴 Trump +11
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +10%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +10
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +9
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +7
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +7
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +4
New Hampshire - 🔴 Trump +3
Virginia - 🔴 Trump +0.6
New… pic.twitter.com/IOOzxaV2Ku

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

LMCane said:

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SA68AG said:

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Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

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what no one is discussing is the 500 million dollars in cash that Trump will have:

that can buy a lot of ads showing Biden during the debate.

30 seconds of Tom Friedman and the NY Times calling Biden to step down as he can't serve

numerous news clips of "senior democrats" begging Biden to drop out.

that can gain another 1-2% of the national population.

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Which is exactly why Biden will not be the nominee.

It is too good to be true. When Trump is sentenced it will probably take a hit.

But still, a much better position than I expected before the debate.

Much better to be in the lead than trying to play catch up.

Biden has been exposed. There is no un-doing that disaster of a debate.

If you convince only 3% of the people to vote differently, that's a 6% swing.

GenericAggie said:

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Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

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One national poll I saw, Trump beating her +3

But it would be a lot closer than people think, she just won't blow the doors off. she will have a fight on her hands.

And for that reason, + short notice,ALSO RFK, I do not think he does it, and I do not think shim wants it..... for now

Harris or Biden, take your PICK ass clowns. You either pay Harris off quietly or you are stuck with here. and good luck paying her off, she sees money and power, after all those years of working those knees hard, three knee and jaw surgeries.

She ain't going down without a fight

2 MONTHS to get this done. hahahahahaha

GenericAggie said:

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Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

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Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

will25u said:

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I feel like all these polls going towards Trump is too good to be true...

#New General Election Poll - Leaked 🔵 internal

North Carolina- 🔴 Trump +11
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +10%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +10
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +9
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +7
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +7
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +4
New Hampshire - 🔴 Trump +3
Virginia - 🔴 Trump +0.6
New… pic.twitter.com/IOOzxaV2Ku

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

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Polls come out for reasons.

These blowout numbers right now are aimed at getting Joe out.