Voters are generally pretty naive or self delusional. They assume it is the personality or politician that is the problem when it is really the platform and policies. Who is implementing them is fairly irrelevant.

Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

When the Biden position is that every other Dem mentioned as a replacement, polls worse against Trump so they might as well stick with him, you know with even that weak hand, the Dem Party is in disarray.

SA68AG said:

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Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

---

This.

It would be very hard to get much more than a 2 point swing either way in this cycle. If Trump holds it he will win easily.

Operation candidate swap aka new puppet installation can't come soon enough for them

.@Polymarket - Swing States Odds

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 58% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 42%
.
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 56%
🟦 Biden: 44%
.
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 54% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 46%
.
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 74% (new high)
🟦 Biden: 26%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 80%
🟦 Biden: 20%
.
NEVADA… https://t.co/dr7teArp4w pic.twitter.com/EahxMmARCH

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 2, 2024

This is all outstanding news...but it only applies with regard to Trump v. Biden...

I remain convinced Biden will NOT be the D on the ticket...

All bets are off when the D's replace Biden...

FireAg said:

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This is all outstanding news...but it only applies with regard to Trump v. Biden...

I remain convinced Biden will NOT be the D on the ticket...

All bets are off when the D's replace Biden...

---

Trump wins handily over Harris or Newsome.

Things become more problematic if the dems nominate a moderate governor like Andy Beshear of Kentucky or
Shapiro of Pennsylvania. The Haley voters that Trump told to F - off and has never reached out to could comfortably move to Beshear or Shapiro.

Yep. Candidate swap for someone that voters didn't choose (for "democracy" of course) will narrow the MOE on these polls enough that the usual fraud, shenanigans, and chicanery in the cities can achieve desired results and muh polls become pretty irrelevant as a predictor of expected results again.

Change the puppet figurehead and 81 million will allegedly vote for open borders, attacks on the industry of our most valuable resources, and massive govt spending again.

2023NCAggies said:

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will25u said:

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New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp

— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024

---

Very bad news for Biden. That state seems to not like Trump much.

Also look out for Maine, looks like the rural population is coming together to make it a 3-1 score for Trump.

---

I just got back from a trip to Maine. Drove through a LOT of rural areas and I must say that there is a large Trump presence there. Trump flags everywhere.

I was just in PA. Trump yard signs and bumper stickers galore. Not one Biden sign witnessed anywhere- city, burbs, or country. That's all anecdotal though. Polls say Trump is ahead, while mailed in ballots can keep getting found and counted in the cities until predetermined desired results are achieved.

The poll leads need to climb much higher past the MOEs before the candidate swap is installed.

McCormick is a good guy but a certified loser in that race.

as I stated before, I have more Twitter followers than he does. you can't win a Senate campaign in Pennsylvania with 150 Twitter followers liking your posts.

SA68AG said:

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Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

---

what no one is discussing is the 500 million dollars in cash that Trump will have:

that can buy a lot of ads showing Biden during the debate.

30 seconds of Tom Friedman and the NY Times calling Biden to step down as he can't serve

numerous news clips of "senior democrats" begging Biden to drop out.

that can gain another 1-2% of the national population.

oh no said:

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I was just in PA. Trump yard signs and bumper stickers galore. Not one Biden sign witnessed anywhere- city, burbs, or country. That's all anecdotal though. Polls say Trump is ahead, while mailed in ballots can keep getting found and counted in the cities until predetermined desired results are achieved.

The poll leads need to climb much higher past the MOEs before the candidate swap is installed.

---

I'm driving up to Gettysburg for the re-enactment saturday. there is always one house along Route 15 North with a few Trump flags, but not nearly as many as back in 2016 and 2020.

hopefully that will change. Gettysburg town itself has a lot of leftists with Biden stuff out in 2020, not sure what it is like now.

there were entire stores of Trump swag on the side of highways back in 2020. it didn't matter.

bigblock said:

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2023NCAggies said:

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will25u said:

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New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp

— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024

---

Very bad news for Biden. That state seems to not like Trump much.

Also look out for Maine, looks like the rural population is coming together to make it a 3-1 score for Trump.

---

I just got back from a trip to Maine. Drove through a LOT of rural areas and I must say that there is a large Trump presence there. Trump flags everywhere.

---

In some states up north, the rural population still outnumbers the cities, and Portland is not all Democrat. So if the Republicans were smart, they'd have permanent office and outreach groups to win that state over. A state dems likely do not care about and we can slip right on in

Minnesota has a rural population to over take the city, but for whatever reason they have not YET come together as a red solid block for that state, yet. It is getting closer.

There are some others like Virginia, where the Rs have work to do, keep permanent offices and start switching people slowly and unite the dark red of the state to all vote and maybe?

New Mexico is the same thing, that state can be turned red, one day, just keep outreaching

I wish I have 50+ billion, I would have these Dems heads blowing off

📊 POST-DEBATE POLL: @CNN

🟥 Trump: 49% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 43%
🟪 Other: 4%
---
🟥 Trump: 41% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 35%
🟨 RFK Jr: 14%
🟩 Stein: 3%
🟨 West: 2%
🟪 Oliver: 1%
—
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 47% (+2)
🟦 DEM: 45%
—
SSRS | June 28-30 | 1,045 RVhttps://t.co/E2D7tugNam pic.twitter.com/PEV32oqGGw

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 2, 2024

CNN POLL: President Trump leads Joe Biden

Trump - 49
Biden - 43 pic.twitter.com/eRpfxMIQLB

— Steven Cheung (@TheStevenCheung) July 2, 2024

7/1 model update.

Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden. pic.twitter.com/lSESmUd4JZ

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2024

Man I could have been completely wrong on them not switching Biden out. Republicans and now some Dems officially coming out. for him to step down

I do not think it matters yet but if a wave come out than it will get very interesting. Jill is a fighter though and Biden has looked good so far since debate, they have plans in place, scripted speeches, scripted rallies, fundraising is taking off, they are back to out hauling Rs.

Old guard still on their side. and the other option is Harris lmao

I do not understand how our base is not sending (donating) money. you know there are 20 million Trump supporters, most hardcore backers, back wood whites and Hispanics that can at least send 5 dollars a month.

That is $100 million. Then if 5 million people like us would send 20 a month, that is 100 million. 200 million on top of the large donors would go a LONG WAY

We are vastly outgunned money wise, stuff like above needs to start happening if we want to start changing America and American views

oh no said:

---

CNN POLL: President Trump leads Joe Biden

Trump - 49
Biden - 43 pic.twitter.com/eRpfxMIQLB

— Steven Cheung (@TheStevenCheung) July 2, 2024

---

Registered voters.

Garbage poll

They are still campaigning to get Biden off ticket

Here's what has happened since 2008 -- explosion in non-major-party voters mostly a function of motor-voter law that defaults people to indie if they don't choose a party, so tens of thousands of those probably are zombies who won't vote. pic.twitter.com/0NgriezhXd

— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) July 2, 2024

I feel like all these polls going towards Trump is too good to be true...

#New General Election Poll - Leaked 🔵 internal

North Carolina- 🔴 Trump +11
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +10%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +10
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +9
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +7
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +7
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +4
New Hampshire - 🔴 Trump +3
Virginia - 🔴 Trump +0.6
New… pic.twitter.com/IOOzxaV2Ku

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

LMCane said:

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SA68AG said:

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Looks like Trump is going to get about a 2 point bump on average.

That may seem small but if it holds it would result in a very comfortable win in November.

---

what no one is discussing is the 500 million dollars in cash that Trump will have:

that can buy a lot of ads showing Biden during the debate.

30 seconds of Tom Friedman and the NY Times calling Biden to step down as he can't serve

numerous news clips of "senior democrats" begging Biden to drop out.

that can gain another 1-2% of the national population.

---

Which is exactly why Biden will not be the nominee.

It is too good to be true. When Trump is sentenced it will probably take a hit.

But still, a much better position than I expected before the debate.

Much better to be in the lead than trying to play catch up.

Biden has been exposed. There is no un-doing that disaster of a debate.

If you convince only 3% of the people to vote differently, that's a 6% swing.

GenericAggie said:

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Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

One national poll I saw, Trump beating her +3

But it would be a lot closer than people think, she just won't blow the doors off. she will have a fight on her hands.

And for that reason, + short notice,ALSO RFK, I do not think he does it, and I do not think shim wants it..... for now

Harris or Biden, take your PICK ass clowns. You either pay Harris off quietly or you are stuck with here. and good luck paying her off, she sees money and power, after all those years of working those knees hard, three knee and jaw surgeries.

She ain't going down without a fight

2 MONTHS to get this done. hahahahahaha

GenericAggie said:

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Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

will25u said:

---

I feel like all these polls going towards Trump is too good to be true...

#New General Election Poll - Leaked 🔵 internal

North Carolina- 🔴 Trump +11
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +10%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +10
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +9
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +7
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +7
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +4
New Hampshire - 🔴 Trump +3
Virginia - 🔴 Trump +0.6
New… pic.twitter.com/IOOzxaV2Ku

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

---

Polls come out for reasons.

These blowout numbers right now are aimed at getting Joe out.

will25u said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

---

So Trump gets an all time low against Michelle?

Mike Obama would be a horrible president (well we all know who would be president).

Likely. It's also possibly one that is set up with questions like: In light of President Biden's disastrous debate performance increase concerns about his cognitive abilities, who are you voting for between Joe Biden and his opponent?

it will be slightly more difficult to play that race card against VP Byron Donalds... which is probably why Trump is going to pick Burgrum or something lol.

stink eye can't take the smoke, but it would be fun to watch her deal with what's in store. her

will25u said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

---

Gas lighting, no way it would be that lopsided. Earlier poll had Trump up 3 on her, no telling how people will see it

2023NCAggies said:

---

will25u said:

---

GenericAggie said:

---

Have we seen any polls that would have big Mike versus Trump?

---

Ask and you shall receive.

#New General Election Poll

🔵 Michelle Obama 50%
🔴 Trump 39%

Ipsos B - 1070 A - 6/29 pic.twitter.com/8tVDBKHgwv

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 2, 2024

---

Gas lighting, no way it would be that lopsided. Earlier poll had Trump up 3 on her, no telling how people will see it

---

Exactly. She wouldn't make it.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4752020-vice-president-harris-trump-biden-poll/

And yes, it is a CNN poll. Simply adding it to the thread, nothing more, nothing less.