Yeah, Avatar made 16m on the exact same calendar day in 2009, and the previous record was on a 4th of July holiday.

Went to a 9:30 am showing today and the theatre probably had 120 people in it. 9:30 on a Tuesday morning. Crazy.

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DO IT. KILL THEM ALL. I WANT BLOOD.

NO MAGIC BS TREE PLANET SPIRIT TO SAVE YOU THIS TIME.

Easy there, Ben.

Word of mouth is what will put this above Avatar. Avatar did not have this types of word of mouth. Also, this is the perfect storm. You have a whole different age group that will see this in droved that Hollywood normally does not give a toss about. People that were in their 20s and 30s when the first ones came out are now closing in on 60. They will come out and see this. Not so much with Avatar.

This bad boy is the perfect storm.

How much did Avatar make when it was re-released? I'm just not sure TFA can reach that without coming back to theaters later.

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Word of mouth is what will put this above Avatar. Avatar did not have this types of word of mouth. Also, this is the perfect storm. You have a whole different age group that will see this in droved that Hollywood normally does not give a toss about. People that were in their 20s and 30s when the first ones came out are now closing in on 60. They will come out and see this. Not so much with Avatar.

This bad boy is the perfect storm.

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even more so....people who were in the 40s in 77-83 and had kids they took to it will also go...thats rare.

my parents are 76 now and they remember star wars well and took me to it many times...

we returned from Korea in 77 late summer and SW was already huge, we went as a family and then to multiple viewings, and we went to the premier of ESB and ROTJ as a family when we were teens.

they do not go to many movies but they are definitely going to Star Wars they were just waiting until after xmas so the crowds would be down a bit...my mom actually asked me "how to buy tickets online" and whether that "works" (LOL).

the appeal for this movie ranges from 5 to 80

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How much did Avatar make when it was re-released? I'm just not sure TFA can reach that without coming back to theaters later.

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it only made $10.7 million on its special edition re-release in 2010.
It made 749.7 million on initial release.

this will surpass $800M on initial release i have no doubt...$1B domestic is not out of the question.

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How much did Avatar make when it was re-released? I'm just not sure TFA can reach that without coming back to theaters later.

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it only made $10.7 million on its special edition re-release in 2010.
It made 749.7 million on initial release.

this will surpass $800M on initial release i have no doubt...$1B domestic is not out of the question.

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I agree but I have my doubts about it taking 2.7 billion for the world wide record.

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How much did Avatar make when it was re-released? I'm just not sure TFA can reach that without coming back to theaters later.

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it only made $10.7 million on its special edition re-release in 2010.
It made 749.7 million on initial release.

this will surpass $800M on initial release i have no doubt...$1B domestic is not out of the question.

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I agree but I have my doubts about it taking 2.7 billion for the world wide record.

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It may need 1 B domestic to break Avatar's record.

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Word of mouth is what will put this above Avatar. Avatar did not have this types of word of mouth. Also, this is the perfect storm. You have a whole different age group that will see this in droved that Hollywood normally does not give a toss about. People that were in their 20s and 30s when the first ones came out are now closing in on 60. They will come out and see this. Not so much with Avatar.

This bad boy is the perfect storm.

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Avatar DID have this type of word of mouth, that's why it's #1. That's why it's initial numbers weren't amazing but it had steady numbers for a long time. Cause everyone talked about how you had to go see Avatar in theaters.

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Word of mouth is what will put this above Avatar. Avatar did not have this types of word of mouth. Also, this is the perfect storm. You have a whole different age group that will see this in droved that Hollywood normally does not give a toss about. People that were in their 20s and 30s when the first ones came out are now closing in on 60. They will come out and see this. Not so much with Avatar.

This bad boy is the perfect storm.

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Avatar DID have this type of word of mouth, that's why it's #1. That's why it's initial numbers weren't amazing but it had steady numbers for a long time. Cause everyone talked about how you had to go see Avatar in theaters.

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yes it had the word of mouth and somewhat appealed to all ages but....it did not have SW built in lifelong fans and generations who had passed it along to their kids.

Right, Avatar didn't have fanboys, but it certainly had word of mouth.

Avatar had fanboys. They're called liberals.

I've been nerding out over here on an Excel spreadsheet. In summary, I don't see how Star Wars DOESN'T make $1.0B domestically. In fact, I think $1.2B is in play. Let me lay out my assumptions and projections:

AVATAR'S Week-to-Week Declines:
+7% (Dec18-Dec24 vs. Dec25-Dec31, i.e. Christmas week to New Years Week)
-34% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-28% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-6% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

Star Wars is on track to make $380MM its first 7 days.

I think it makes another $200MM this upcoming weekend. That's a ~20% decline, weekend to weekend. Avatar declined only 2% for reference but had no fan boy front-loading whatsoever.

So by my math Star Wars is at $580MM at the end of day Sunday. Next week is an incredible box office week, and 4 $30MM weekdays are in store. That puts Star Wars 2nd "WEEK" at $320MM, vs. its first week of $380MM. That's a 16% week-to-week decline. Avatar, as shown above, increased by 7% week-to-week.

What I've done to model after New Years is take a more conservative week-to-week decline. You see Avatar's numbers above. These are what I'm projecting for TFA:

STAR WARS' Week-to-Week Declines:
-16% (Christmas week to New Years Week
-50% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-45% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-20% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

I then apply a 45% week-to-week decline from then on. If you're wondering, Avatar's week-to-week declines were nowhere close to 45%, they were much lower. Avatar had a long, shallow decline. Star Wars' decline will be steeper no doubt.

Getting to the point, if I apply the numbers above, Star Wars hits $1.0B on MLK weekend. That's FIVE weeks into its run. It hits $1.1B sometime in February.

And here's the thing: I think my projections are too conservative.

Dude, you need a girlfriend.

Agreed

thats an interesting projection.

Seeing as how I plan to see it about 6 times....it's certainly possible.

I saw the original SW like 15 times in the theater over about a year. We had an on base theater that was showing it for over a year and sometimes on a saturday we would just go see it again on a whim, it was like $1.50 for a matinee show and another $1.50 got you popcorn and a drink. And it was within walking distance from our houses.

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MI've been nerding out over here on an Excel spreadsheet. In summary, I don't see how Star Wars DOESN'T make $1.0B domestically. In fact, I think $1.2B is in play. Let me lay out my assumptions and projections:

AVATAR'S Week-to-Week Declines:
+7% (Dec18-Dec24 vs. Dec25-Dec31, i.e. Christmas week to New Years Week)
-34% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-28% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-6% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

Star Wars is on track to make $380MM its first 7 days.

I think it makes another $200MM this upcoming weekend. That's a ~20% decline, weekend to weekend. Avatar declined only 2% for reference but had no fan boy front-loading whatsoever.

So by my math Star Wars is at $580MM at the end of day Sunday. Next week is an incredible box office week, and 4 $30MM weekdays are in store. That puts Star Wars 2nd "WEEK" at $320MM, vs. its first week of $380MM. That's a 16% week-to-week decline. Avatar, as shown above, increased by 7% week-to-week.

What I've done to model after New Years is take a more conservative week-to-week decline. You see Avatar's numbers above. These are what I'm projecting for TFA:

STAR WARS' Week-to-Week Declines:
-16% (Christmas week to New Years Week
-50% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-45% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-20% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

I then apply a 45% week-to-week decline from then on. If you're wondering, Avatar's week-to-week declines were nowhere close to 45%, they were much lower. Avatar had a long, shallow decline. Star Wars' decline will be steeper no doubt.

Getting to the point, if I apply the numbers above, Star Wars hits $1.0B on MLK weekend. That's FIVE weeks into its run. It hits $1.1B sometime in February.

And here's the thing: I think my projections are too conservative.

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I think one thing to consider is that it may be a bit more front loaded than expected, because this is one of those rare movies where people want to rush out and see it before spoilers are everywhere.
We will see how that plays against the Star Wars nerds (and I say that lovingly) who see it multiple times over the next few weeks.

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MI've been nerding out over here on an Excel spreadsheet. In summary, I don't see how Star Wars DOESN'T make $1.0B domestically. In fact, I think $1.2B is in play. Let me lay out my assumptions and projections:

AVATAR'S Week-to-Week Declines:
+7% (Dec18-Dec24 vs. Dec25-Dec31, i.e. Christmas week to New Years Week)
-34% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-28% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-6% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

Star Wars is on track to make $380MM its first 7 days.

I think it makes another $200MM this upcoming weekend. That's a ~20% decline, weekend to weekend. Avatar declined only 2% for reference but had no fan boy front-loading whatsoever.

So by my math Star Wars is at $580MM at the end of day Sunday. Next week is an incredible box office week, and 4 $30MM weekdays are in store. That puts Star Wars 2nd "WEEK" at $320MM, vs. its first week of $380MM. That's a 16% week-to-week decline. Avatar, as shown above, increased by 7% week-to-week.

What I've done to model after New Years is take a more conservative week-to-week decline. You see Avatar's numbers above. These are what I'm projecting for TFA:

STAR WARS' Week-to-Week Declines:
-16% (Christmas week to New Years Week
-50% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-45% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-20% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

I then apply a 45% week-to-week decline from then on. If you're wondering, Avatar's week-to-week declines were nowhere close to 45%, they were much lower. Avatar had a long, shallow decline. Star Wars' decline will be steeper no doubt.

Getting to the point, if I apply the numbers above, Star Wars hits $1.0B on MLK weekend. That's FIVE weeks into its run. It hits $1.1B sometime in February.

And here's the thing: I think my projections are too conservative.

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I think one thing to consider is that it may be a bit more front loaded than expected, because this is one of those rare movies where people want to rush out and see it before spoilers are everywhere.
We will see how that plays against the Star Wars nerds (and I say that lovingly) who see it multiple times over the next few weeks.

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i think thats offset by 2 things

1. the people who held off to avoid the crowds
2. repeat viewings, not just by the nerds

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MI've been nerding out over here on an Excel spreadsheet. In summary, I don't see how Star Wars DOESN'T make $1.0B domestically. In fact, I think $1.2B is in play. Let me lay out my assumptions and projections:

AVATAR'S Week-to-Week Declines:
+7% (Dec18-Dec24 vs. Dec25-Dec31, i.e. Christmas week to New Years Week)
-34% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-28% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-6% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

Star Wars is on track to make $380MM its first 7 days.

I think it makes another $200MM this upcoming weekend. That's a ~20% decline, weekend to weekend. Avatar declined only 2% for reference but had no fan boy front-loading whatsoever.

So by my math Star Wars is at $580MM at the end of day Sunday. Next week is an incredible box office week, and 4 $30MM weekdays are in store. That puts Star Wars 2nd "WEEK" at $320MM, vs. its first week of $380MM. That's a 16% week-to-week decline. Avatar, as shown above, increased by 7% week-to-week.

What I've done to model after New Years is take a more conservative week-to-week decline. You see Avatar's numbers above. These are what I'm projecting for TFA:

STAR WARS' Week-to-Week Declines:
-16% (Christmas week to New Years Week
-50% (New Years Week to 1st Week Jan)
-45% (1st Week Jan to 2nd Week Jan)
-20% (2nd Week Jan to MLK Weekend)

I then apply a 45% week-to-week decline from then on. If you're wondering, Avatar's week-to-week declines were nowhere close to 45%, they were much lower. Avatar had a long, shallow decline. Star Wars' decline will be steeper no doubt.

Getting to the point, if I apply the numbers above, Star Wars hits $1.0B on MLK weekend. That's FIVE weeks into its run. It hits $1.1B sometime in February.

And here's the thing: I think my projections are too conservative.

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I think one thing to consider is that it may be a bit more front loaded than expected, because this is one of those rare movies where people want to rush out and see it before spoilers are everywhere.
We will see how that plays against the Star Wars nerds (and I say that lovingly) who see it multiple times over the next few weeks.

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i think thats offset by 2 things

1. the people who held off to avoid the crowds
2. repeat viewings, not just by the nerds

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If I go see it again it will be to see it with a real audience. I live in an area with a lot of money and saw it in a new over the top pretentious theater here, with an almost silent crowd. Would love to see it with more normal folks who might actually enjoy it and get into it a bit.

Tuesday estimated at high-$30s. May hit $40MM again.

They've gone to plaid.

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Nope.
$650--700M tops in the US.
Worldwide.... $1.7B

All IMHO, of course.

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Sitting at $320-$330M, domestic.

Been 6 days...

Nailed it.

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Tuesday estimated at high-$30s. May hit $40MM again.

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Holy hell

Someone make that Iger or Mickey.

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I think one thing to consider is that it may be a bit more front loaded than expected, because this is one of those rare movies where people want to rush out and see it before spoilers are everywhere.
We will see how that plays against the Star Wars nerds (and I say that lovingly) who see it multiple times over the next few weeks.

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This is what will put it over the top, imo. I NEVER see movies more than once in the theaters and yet I already have plans to see it at least twice more. Same with people I know

Here's how the numbers break down for my family at the movies:

Dad: 8-10 movies per year
Wife: 2-3 movies per year (not a huge movie fan, has only seen SW because of Dad,
Kids (3): 5-6 movies per year

Star Wars Viewings:
Tuesday Night: Dad & Wife watch Star Wars (Dad waited in line 6 hours for a good seat). Wife loved it.

Wednesday: Dad & 3 Kids going to see it, Wife actually wants to go again!


So what I'm getting at, we aren't a huge movie theater family, but we are going to double the amount spent on the same movie this week compared to opening night/weekend. My wife is going to match her typical years worth of movie theater time in less than 1 week on 1 movie. I will also be making a 3rd trip at some point (I want to see it in Imax 3D having already seen it in my preferred 2D format).

This thing is HUGE on so many levels. I never imagined a 95% RT score was possible for this movie and you can't underestimate what that means for movie-goers that were on the fence about this one.

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According to early industry estimates this morning, Disney's Star Wars: The Force Awakens crossed the $300M threshold yesterday at the domestic box office faster than any other film. Jurassic World completed this feat in eight days, and Force Awakens outstrips that record in five days. Disney has yet to make this news official.

Also this morning, rival box office analysts see The Force Awakens notching the best Tuesday ever with a projected $37.88M, which means that Episode VII beat another Sony Spider-Man title two days in a row after taking the Monday record away from Spider-Man 2 with $40.1M. Previous Tuesday champ was Sony's reboot The Amazing Spider-Man which made $35M on July 3, 2012.

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This movie just ****ting on Spider-Man left and right. And just to be clear, that $35M by ASM was on OPENING DAY.

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According to early industry estimates this morning, Disney's Star Wars: The Force Awakens crossed the $300M threshold yesterday at the domestic box office faster than any other film. Jurassic World completed this feat in eight days, and Force Awakens outstrips that record in five days. Disney has yet to make this news official.

Also this morning, rival box office analysts see The Force Awakens notching the best Tuesday ever with a projected $37.88M, which means that Episode VII beat another Sony Spider-Man title two days in a row after taking the Monday record away from Spider-Man 2 with $40.1M. Previous Tuesday champ was Sony's reboot The Amazing Spider-Man which made $35M on July 3, 2012.

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This movie just ****ting on Spider-Man left and right. And just to be clear, that $35M by ASM was on OPENING DAY.

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Opening Day AND effectively a HOLIDAY....with Tuesday on July 4th many people take off Monday. As much or more of a holiday than this Tuesday December 22nd - some people take off this early, but most wait and start on around the 24th through New Years.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=liberge.htm

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http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=liberge.htm

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Titanic is really impressive. Week 33 and it was still doing over 2 M a week. Movies DON'T last in theatres that long.

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http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=liberge.htm

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Titanic is really impressive. Week 33 and it was still doing over 2 M a week. Movies last in theatres that long.

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No...only Titanic did...that movie had serious "legs" as they say. It was pulling $20+ million per week through 14 weeks. And it only pulled $52 million in week 1.

It was in theaters from mid December through the next September.


Love that chart though....great way to track the big dogs.

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http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=liberge.htm

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Titanic is really impressive. Week 33 and it was still doing over 2 M a week. Movies last in theatres that long.

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No...only Titanic did...that movie had serious "legs" as they say. It was pulling $20+ million per week through 14 weeks. And it only pulled $52 million in week 1.

It was in theaters from mid December through the next September.


Love that chart though....great way to track the big dogs.

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Left out "don't" in my post.