Sources are saying TFA will likely beat the estimates. Low-$240s weekend and may take the worldwide record as well (again without China).

JW made $90MM it's opening weekend in China...add that in to TFA and it's a $610MM apples-to-apples "opening" weekend. No reason to think TFA won't open larger than JW in China.

I have a feeling a lot of pirated copies of TFA will make their way into Chinese homes before 1/9.

Won't beat JW in China. SW is not well known there.

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The Sources are saying TFA will likely beat the estimates. Low-$240s weekend and may take the worldwide record as well (again without China).

JW made $90MM it's opening weekend in China...add that in to TFA and it's a $610MM apples-to-apples "opening" weekend. No reason to think TFA won't open larger than JW in China.

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The first three movies didn't play in China so it doesn't have the cult following there it has in the rest of the world. I don't think any of the prequels ever ever even broke 40 million, let alone 100. But it still would have been enough to push it over I think.

TFA won't beat JW in China. When the originals were released, the government didn't allow Star Wars to play in China. Because of that, it's only popular with the younger generation.

It also hasn't opened in India yet but I'm not sure how popular it is there.

Is Jurassic Park a known quantityin China?

The freaking Martian made $50MM it's opening weekend over there.

Yes it was huge in China. Isn't China the country that wants to clone a mammoth?

i think since 1977-1983 a large percentage of A BILLION Chinese people have

a. seen Star Wars in some way (pirated, DVD, online, etc.)
b. now heard about this huge smash hit and will go out to see it

the fact that it was never run in theaters and the prequels only recently ran and did not make much money is not much of an indicator (imho)....people that wanted to see it would have already...and if they had why would they go out to see it at a theater in a re-release?

if just 1.5% of the population sees it opening weekend, that will make $120 million (average ticket price is about $6)

if you are wondering the Chinese urban population is over 50% or over 680 million people.

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Is Jurassic Park a known quantityin China?

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Dinosaurs are cool to see in every language, regardless of backstory knowledge.

I agree.

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TFA won't beat JW in China. When the originals were released, the government didn't allow Star Wars to play in China. Because of that, it's only popular with the younger generation.

It also hasn't opened in India yet but I'm not sure how popular it is there.

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The younger generation is almost the size of the US.

Chinese numbers will be interesting. You'd have to think that Star Wars is a big deal in Hong Kong, at least. They would have been exposed to it there, right?

I contributed tonight.

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4TH UPDATE, SATURDAY AM PT: After adding Spain and Japan on Friday, Star Wars: The Force Awakens now has an international cume estimated at $129.5M. Coupled with domestic, that brings the crew of the Millennium Falcon to a massive $250M worldwide in just the first three days of play. The Friday was worth $56.8M offshore a notch down from Jurassic World's first Friday of $60M this summer. But, the two films are now neck-and-neck at the same point in their runs with JW having stomped on $130M overseas through its first Friday. And that movie had China, going on to gross just over $316M for the debut frame. Initial estimates on the international debut weekend for the Resistance and the First Order ranged anywhere from $250M-$315M ahead of the release. Some industry sources are now suggesting upwards of $320M.





Interesting that, to date, it is trailing overseas vs JW (granted barely, but SW had a lot more domestic hype that JW).

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For the weekend, TFA sits at $279M in foreign sales.

JW had $316M in foreign sales opening weekend with $99M coming from China.

IF TFA only pulls 1/3rd of what JW did in China on opening weekend it will be neck and neck with JW. If it pulls half of what JW did in China, it will smoke the record.

Also, just to keep in mind (without China)...

TFA sits at $517M opening weekend.

JW sat at $524M opening weekend WITH China.

I think you might be underestimating the Power of the Force...Awakens







See what I did there?

Estimates apparently were way off for Sunday. At least $10M bigger than anticipated, enough to take the all-time Sunday record.

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

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12th UPDATE, Monday 6:48AM: Disney has yet to weigh in with their official figures, but according to early morning industry estimates, Star Wars: The Force Awakens is taking the Sunday all-time record with $60.2M-$61.1M, which would beat Jurassic World's third day of $57.2M. This puts Force Awakens' weekend at a mindblowing $248.5M-$250.3M. For some this morning, they're anticipating thatForce Awakens actually hits $250M. Sunday was off -11% to -12% from Saturday which beats JW's hold over those two days of -18%.

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Might still take the worldwide opening record.

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Might still take the worldwide opening record.

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Amazing considering 1/6 of world population (and number 2 market) can't see it until next month.

Yup. As I've kept saying though, the key to this thing is China. That will make it or break it as far as breaking Avatar's record.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

JW is the #7 movie all time in China, Transformers #3 and Furious 7 #2.

To have even the slightest chance at Avatar numbers, it's gonna have to finish at least #5. The problem is that there's not a single Star Wars movie on that list of the top 40 movies.

All amazing. I know several people that didn't bother seeing it because they didn't even want to fight the crowds. I am also a perfect example of somebody that spent good money on the movie this weekend, but I'm about to drop over double the amount on Wednesday when I go back, but this time I'm bringing all my kids (and a surprise my wife wants to go again too because she really liked it).

I think the biggest thing going for Disney is very strong critic reviews and word of mouth. People are talking about it and word is getting around that this movie is legit. Opening weekend was huge, but I think we see very strong sales going forward.

I want Star Wars at the top of all the charts when it's all said and done... It belongs there!

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Yup. As I've kept saying though, the key to this thing is China. That will make it or break it as far as breaking Avatar's record.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

JW is the #7 movie all time in China, Transformers #3 and Furious 7 #2.

To have even the slightest chance at Avatar numbers, it's gonna have to finish at least #5. The problem is that there's not a single Star Wars movie on that list of the top 40 movies.

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there is also not a single other Fast and Furious movie on that list...and not a single other Jurassic movie on that list...

i'm not sure that matters.

star wars was 1977-1983 and wasn't released in china...but i refuse to believe chinas 680 million people who live in urban cities and have internet and pirated movies and dvd players, etc....don't know what star wars is. or at least 100 million of them.

and when the prequels were released there finally a few years ago they tanked...but again...i think most who wanted to had seen them already through some other means. and if you had already seen the (crappy) prequels would you pay to go see them on the big screen?

Folks are getting caught up comparing this to Jurassic World's SUMMER opening. The thing is, TFA just opened to $250MM during one of the busiest weekends of the year for consumers. The opening would have been SUBSTANTIALLY higher had it occurred in the summer. It opened 3x bigger than the Hobbit, the previous largest December opening. This was a frontloaded fanboy weekend, no doubt, but its box office from here on out will behave like a normal big December opening. I think the week-to-week declines are going to be shockingly small for a movie this large. As was previously stated, so many people didn't get a chance to see the movie this weekend because of holiday affairs.

I think it makes +/- $30MM every day this week and easily makes $150MM+ next weekend. It's hard to believe, but I think the weekend estimate could be way low. That's still a ~40% decline from the opening weekend. There is a REAL chance it does $200MM again next weekend.

In summary, we have to start looking at this as a cultural movie event, just like Avatar and Titanic, and because of the calendar we have to treat it like those films' performance over the holidays.

(I've been fascinated with the box office since Titanic opened. I don't know why, but it's always been something I've kept up with. I love keeping up with these record-breaking openings!)

I originally wasn't going to go see the movie on opening weekend because of the crowds, but I ended up going out of the reality that the longer I waited the less likely it was that I'd be able to avoid spoilers. I have a feeling that same sentiment plays a part for a few people

Almost no one I know has seen it yet, and these people (me included) are prime target audience. With the kids in school, holiday parties, Christmas pageants etc, I think a lot of people are just holding off until this week.

Apologies if I missed it, but does anyone know why China is getting a delayed release date?

If it's to prevent piracy, lol.

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it's to prevent piracy, lol.

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I imagine this is it.

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Apologies if I missed it, but does anyone know why China is getting a delayed release date?

If it's to prevent piracy, lol.

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I remember reading something about December being China's biggest movie month and not wanting an American movie to hurt Chinese made movies.

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Apologies if I missed it, but does anyone know why China is getting a delayed release date?

If it's to prevent piracy, lol.

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The country goes through numerous periods throughout the year where black out foreign releases in order to be sure that their native cinema doesn't get overrun entirely, and December is one of those times.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Star-Wars-Just-Pulled-Out-All-Stops-Get-China-Excited-About-Movie-89597.html

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Apologies if I missed it, but does anyone know why China is getting a delayed release date?

If it's to prevent piracy, lol.

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That hasn't been said publicly that I know of.

It's been reported that it's the Chinese government, and not Disney, who are holding up the release date. From there, it's speculation as to why. For all we know, it could just be the Chinese government wanting to temper the release of a hit movie franchise that centers around people resisting their oppressive governments.

But it could just be as easy as wanting to maintain their foreign film quota in favor of Chinese films.

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Apologies if I missed it, but does anyone know why China is getting a delayed release date?

If it's to prevent piracy, lol.

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The country goes through numerous periods throughout the year where black out foreign releases in order to be sure that their native cinema doesn't get overrun entirely, and December is one of those times.

http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Star-Wars-Just-Pulled-Out-All-Stops-Get-China-Excited-About-Movie-89597.html

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How interesting. Thank you for the answer!

Interesting. Good to know.

Down goes JW.

$528M global.

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Down goes JW.

$528M global.

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But but but!!!

-ryam

The funny is that it's Spielberg congratulating his protege Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall congratulating his wife, and Colin Trevorrow congratulating the franchise he recently joined. Not to mention the saga was created by Spielberg's best friend.

They're all connected to the saga in one way or another.

Not to mention that Kathleen Kennedy and Steven Spielberg hired a teenaged kid named JJ Abrams to transfer Spielberg's old home movies to tape