dermdoc said:

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The Debt said:

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t - cam said:

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aginlakeway said:

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gougler08 said:

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If we lose today we are back to RPI if 20 or so? I really hope you guys are right but that just feels like the reason the committee needs to spread a super host away from the SEC for "parity"

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Everyone says we're a NS. Not just guys on TexAgs. They're not all wrong.

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They were literally all wrong about basketball. Virtually every expert.

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College baseball is very dependent on conference tourneys. More so than basketball.

But more than that, the Sec is the best conference in baseball. Are you arguing they are only going to take the vols as top 8? If not, which sec team do you put over the Ags? It cant be based on conference record, like aub (rpi 6). It cant be based on tourney record (ark).

We are objectively ticking every box

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I am not convinced the committee depends that much on the tourneys except for teams playing their way in.

We shall see.

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2-1 won't hurt you. 0-2 might.

It will be interesting to watch. We will end up with an RPI in the low 20's yet our record against the RPI teams is phenomenal. There has never been a T8 seed with as low an RPI as we have

There's a first time for everything

trouble said:

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There's a first time for everything

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Except things that never happen

Did I yank your chain?

trouble said:

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Did I yank your chain?

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No, I yanked yours. HTH

W said:

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the first indication of what the committee's emphasis on RPI will be...will come tomorrow when the 16 host sites are announced.

do teams like TCU, LSU, OU, Virginia, and Oregon...that had very good seasons in power conferences --- but with mid-20's to mid-30's RPI's get rewarded with host spots?

and also...how many teams in the top 16 get passed over for hosts spots? Last year there were only 2. Should be between 2 and 4 this year (Wake, Vandy, Florida?, Auburn?, East Carolina?)

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Throw North Carolina in there. They were tied for the 7th best record in the ACC, yet they now have the highest RPI of any ACC team and sit at # 4.

New Mexico State won the WAC and stole a bid. 24-32 on the year and 10-20 in conference with an RPI of 237.

The Aggies shouldn't have even qualified for the tourney, but 2 schools were ineligible for postseason play. They just got hot at the right time.

North Carolina wins the ACC tournament in dominating fashion.

we'll see if a team can go from a regional 2-seed...to a top 8 national seed via 1 great weekend of baseball

powerbelly said:

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PhatMack19 said:

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#25 ranked Grand Canyon down 8-0 and about to be eliminated. They won the WAC easily. Do they get in with an RPI of 47?

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They shouldn't

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Why not? Because if a Top 25 team doesnt get in because of RPI then we are a borderline host at best because of RPI

Wicked Good Ag said:

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powerbelly said:

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PhatMack19 said:

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#25 ranked Grand Canyon down 8-0 and about to be eliminated. They won the WAC easily. Do they get in with an RPI of 47?

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They shouldn't

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Why not? Because if a Top 25 team doesnt get in because of RPI then we are a borderline host at best because of RPI

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Because 16-14 non-conference and 9 RPI 101+ losses isnt a tournament team imo.

Wake Forest has shot up to #6 in the RPI...despite going just 1-1 at the ACC tournament.

they rode the North Carolina wave

and East Carolina swept thru the C-USA tournament field...

and jumped from #25 to #8 without playing any good teams.

but ECU wisely played a 3-game set vs. UNC in the non-conference...and likewise rode the Tar Heels' coattails up the RPI

These conference tournaments have totally altered the RPI rankings. Won't be long know to see what the committee has decided.

Great point, but I do wonder how that translates to the cavernous TD Ameritrade Schwab Field outfield this year, which in the past has turned many would be home runs into routine fly outs.

I think it's pretty clear the NCAA changed up the balls this year as it's far and away an extreme outlier in the BBCOR era. To me this is a super interesting subplot to the entire CWS this year -- how many balls get out vs the 10 year history in this park?

We keep talking about "cavernous" Schwab field but it's only 5 feet longer down the lines and 8 feet longer in center than Olsen. Power alley's are the same.

Left Line 335 ft (102 m) Left Center 375 ft (114 m) Center Field 408 ft (124 m) Right Center 375 ft (114 m) Right Line 335 ft (102 m)

Not just the dimensions, but for whatever reason it has played really big in its 10 years. Balls just die there, or did in the past anyway. And the dimensions are actually identical to Rosenblatt as well. I had forgotten this but year they were actually way up in Omaha as well. Here's an article on the subject (link). The trend is way up over the past few years so again it points to something changing, either the bats or the balls. I personally think the number is too big for it to just be pitching and analytics.

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The dimensions at Rosenblatt and the current CWS venue are identical 335 feet down both lines, 375 in the alleys and 408 to center but the parks' homer totals have varied greatly. Teams combined for 30-plus bombs in 13 of the final 16 years at the Diamond on the Hill, including a record 62 in 1998.

The CWS site change in 2011 coincided with the introduction of BBCOR bats, which were designed to be more woodlike and limit homers. Blasts in Omaha dropped from 32 to nine. There were three total shots in both the 2013 and 2014 Series, leaving participants to bemoan the spacious outfield and the unconventional direction the ballpark faces.

Homers have slowly risen since then, reaching a TD Ameritrade Park-high 23 in 16 games in 2017 and 22 over 15 games in 2019.

This year's barrage reflects a seasonlong trend for taters in college baseball. With 12,649 homers in 14,378 games entering the CWS, the average of .880 per contest dwarfs recent seasons that included per-game clips of .390 in 2014, .602 in 2016 and .750 in 2019.

Some point to older rosters in the sport, leading to more physically mature batters. Others say the major league trend of three true outcomes homers, walks and strikeouts has trickled down. An alteration to the baseballs is also possible.

"History has told us in the last decade in this ballpark it's really difficult to hit balls out," said Virginia coach Brian O'Connor, whose teams qualified four times including this season. "But certainly in these first (few) games in Omaha, things have maybe changed a little bit."

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RED AG 98 said:

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Not just the dimensions, but for whatever reason it has played really big in its 10 years. Balls just die there, or did in the past anyway. And the dimensions are actually identical to Rosenblatt as well. I had forgotten this but year they were actually way up in Omaha as well. Here's an article on the subject (link). The trend is way up over the past few years so again it points to something changing, either the bats or the balls. I personally think the number is too big for it to just be pitching and analytics.

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An alteration to the baseballs is also possible.

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Am I crazy in thinking it's weird that there's speculation, as opposed to formally knowing, about the physical characteristics of the ball changing without some sort of update from the NCAA? I would think that this would be a known variable because it has a big effect on the game.

If it really is unknown if there are changes to the baseball year to year, then my belief is that we should keep a handful of balls and the end of each season and compare them to the new season to see the difference in the most scientific way possible. It could really determine hitting strategies for certain guys who are borderline power hitters, how to play when certain weather or wind patterns are present and how to pitch to the borderline power hitters.

Maybe it's not that big of a difference, but I would think it could have some importance over the course of a season in a game like baseball.

I just think it's odd that nobody is actually testing the baseballs for differences and are just speculating instead.

RikkiTikkaTagem said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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Not just the dimensions, but for whatever reason it has played really big in its 10 years. Balls just die there, or did in the past anyway. And the dimensions are actually identical to Rosenblatt as well. I had forgotten this but year they were actually way up in Omaha as well. Here's an article on the subject (link). The trend is way up over the past few years so again it points to something changing, either the bats or the balls. I personally think the number is too big for it to just be pitching and analytics.

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An alteration to the baseballs is also possible.

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Am I crazy in thinking it's weird that there's speculation, as opposed to formally knowing, about the physical characteristics of the ball changing without some sort of update from the NCAA? I would think that this would be a known variable because it has a big effect on the game.

If it really is unknown if there are changes to the baseball year to year, then my belief is that we should keep a handful of balls and the end of each season and compare them to the new season to see the difference in the most scientific way possible. It could really determine hitting strategies for certain guys who are borderline power hitters, how to play when certain weather or wind patterns are present and how to pitch to the borderline power hitters.

Maybe it's not that big of a difference, but I would think it could have some importance over the course of a season in a game like baseball.

I just think it's odd that nobody is actually testing the baseballs for differences and are just speculating instead.

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The field dimensions are known and haven't changed. The BBCOR standards have not been altered. The NCAA did change the balls in 2015 (link), so I think this is what leads most everyone that follows this stuff to believe it's the balls again. Not only that, but see also the recent stink in the MLB where they have different balls in the same season.

The short answer is that the balls are the easiest knob to turn and the main point of control for the NCAA.

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Committee members made the decision to change to a flat-seamed baseball after research conducted this fall by the Washington State University Sport Science Laboratory showed that flat-seamed baseballs launched out of a pitching machine at averages of 95 mph, a 25-degree angle and a 1,400 rpm spin rate traveled around 387 feet compared to raised-seamed baseballs that went 367 feet.

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Due to variables (individual bat speed, wind direction, whether the ball is stuck on the bat's "sweet spot," etc.) that can impact the distance a baseball can travel, not every trajectory hit with a flat-seamed ball will travel exactly 20 feet farther than a raised-seamed ball, but a 20-foot average difference is an approximate representation of what can be expected.

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"We anticipate that this will moderately increase scoring but not take it back to the days where we were dealing with outrageous scores that looked more like football scores," said Dennis Farrell, who is the committee chair and the commissioner of the Big West Conference. "We want to get the game back to what is a reasonable amount of scoring and defense."

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In 2011, there were nine home runs in the MCWS, and in the second year in the park, 10 homers were hit. By contrast in the last year at Rosenblatt Stadium in 2010, 32 homers left the park. Similarly, across all of Division I regular season baseball, offensive performance batting averages, runs scored and home runs has been on the decline in recent years.

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The flat-seamed baseball may make it more difficult for pitchers to throw breaking pitches, but college baseball coaches feel their pitchers will be able to adjust over time.

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That last one is kinda important to note as well.. not just about ball travel but more difficult to impart spin as a pitcher.

Thanks for your reply.

I found and read this after what you said about the MLB issue, and thought it was interesting and posed some of the same questions we all have asked here along with talking about the use of two different balls in the same season.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/baseball/baseball-news-2022-mlb-problems-changes-to-the-baseballs-stats-strikeouts-no-small-ball-how-to-fix-rob-manfred/news-story/18fb94347df1110942f2193d64063216

drthoop said:

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We keep talking about "cavernous" Schwab field but it's only 5 feet longer down the lines and 8 feet longer in center than Olsen. Power alley's are the same.

Left Line 335 ft (102 m) Left Center 375 ft (114 m) Center Field 408 ft (124 m) Right Center 375 ft (114 m) Right Line 335 ft (102 m)

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Schwab faces southeast, in the direction of the prevailing wind this time of year. At Olsen, the ballpark faces north, and the wind is usually blowing out when it's warm.

twk said:

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drthoop said:

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We keep talking about "cavernous" Schwab field but it's only 5 feet longer down the lines and 8 feet longer in center than Olsen. Power alley's are the same.

Left Line 335 ft (102 m) Left Center 375 ft (114 m) Center Field 408 ft (124 m) Right Center 375 ft (114 m) Right Line 335 ft (102 m)

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Schwab faces southeast, in the direction of the prevailing wind this time of year. At Olsen, the ballpark faces north, and the wind is usually blowing out when it's warm.

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Good point Tom. You going to Omaha?

drthoop said:

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twk said:

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drthoop said:

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We keep talking about "cavernous" Schwab field but it's only 5 feet longer down the lines and 8 feet longer in center than Olsen. Power alley's are the same.

Left Line 335 ft (102 m) Left Center 375 ft (114 m) Center Field 408 ft (124 m) Right Center 375 ft (114 m) Right Line 335 ft (102 m)

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Schwab faces southeast, in the direction of the prevailing wind this time of year. At Olsen, the ballpark faces north, and the wind is usually blowing out when it's warm.

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Good point Tom. You going to Omaha?

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No. Been away from the office too much with my trip to Normandy. Thought about trying to make the finals, but things have come up that will keep me home.