Florida Early Voting

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lunchbox
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In reply to AvidAggie • 2:15p, 11/3/20
AvidAggie said:
GCP12 said:

I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Per this post, it does include the Miami-Dade numbers that have been released, but not a handful of other counties (which all went to Trump, some close, in 2016).

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aggiez03
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2:15p, 11/3/20
AG
In Miami Dade...

Hilldawg had a 14% lead
DimentiaJoe has a 10% lead

Trump has a 4% advantage 2020 vs 2016 in Dade County which accounts for picking up 44,459 votes more than last time.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to AvidAggie • 2:16p, 11/3/20
AG
AvidAggie said:
GCP12 said:

I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?

It's only the Election Day votes in Dade that aren't counted in this. Early vote and VBM are counted. Election Day votes in Dade won't move the needle much.
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aginresearch
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In reply to AvidAggie • 2:17p, 11/3/20
AG
How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
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Marvin
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In reply to lunchbox • 2:19p, 11/3/20
AG
lunchbox said:
AvidAggie said:
GCP12 said:

I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Per this post, it does include the Miami-Dade numbers that have been released, but not a handful of other counties.


Those counties shown as not included all went for Trump by 15,000 votes total in 2016.
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AgBQ-00
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2:20p, 11/3/20
AG
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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Gigemags382
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:21p, 11/3/20
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
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MagnumLoad
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2:22p, 11/3/20
NPA's will decide this, and nobody knows how that will go. Dems will use exit polling to project a win, but those are unreliable
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
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The Debt
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 2:23p, 11/3/20
Gigemags382 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
Floridians are happy to vote for their own demographic. Dementia-Americans
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bmks270
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:23p, 11/3/20
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.


Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.

Ignore the party support data that shows Trump has 95% approval among Republicans (higher than Obama, Bush or Clinton had). Also, the 5% aren't necessarily voting for Biden.

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aginresearch
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:23p, 11/3/20
AG
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.
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The Debt
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In reply to bmks270 • 2:25p, 11/3/20
bmks270 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.
10% of Dems poll they are voting for Trump.

This happens every election.
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Marvin
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In reply to aginresearch • 2:25p, 11/3/20
AG
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
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akm91
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In reply to aginresearch • 2:26p, 11/3/20
AG
aginresearch said:
How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Keep in mind, in 2016 it was +300K for GCF.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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Gigemags382
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In reply to bmks270 • 2:27p, 11/3/20
AG
bmks270 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.


Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.



Probably attempted to contact 10,000 R's. 100 of those R's were defecting to Biden and proud to tell the pollster. Only 1,000 total R's responded. Voila, 10% R defectors.
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will25u
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2:27p, 11/3/20
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Prosperdick
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2:27p, 11/3/20
AG
+148,444 just updated a minute ago. So almost at 150K.
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HelloUncleNateFitch
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In reply to akm91 • 2:27p, 11/3/20
akm91 said:
aginresearch said:
How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Keep in mind, in 2016 it was +300K for GCF.
aren't the early votes there factored in already? thought they just hadn't reported today's #s,
Don't underestimate Joe's ability to **** this up.
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Prosperdick
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2:28p, 11/3/20
AG
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FriskyGardenGnome
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In reply to Marvin • 2:29p, 11/3/20
AG
Marvin said:
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
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Gigemags382
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In reply to Prosperdick • 2:30p, 11/3/20
AG
Prosperdick said:

That does indicate it being closer than 2016 though.
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Gyles Marrett
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In reply to FriskyGardenGnome • 2:30p, 11/3/20
gotsand said:
Marvin said:
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
The deep red panhandle counties are notorious for the after work surge.
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Nitro Power
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 2:30p, 11/3/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
Trolls

FIFY
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Keegan99
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2:32p, 11/3/20
AG
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AgOutsideAustin
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2:35p, 11/3/20
AG
Thanks Florida, North Carolina and Georgia don't screw this up !
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FriskyGardenGnome
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In reply to Gyles Marrett • 2:37p, 11/3/20
AG
Gyles Marrett said:
gotsand said:
Marvin said:
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
The deep red panhandle counties are notorious for the after work surge.
Yes, and they're deep, deep red.
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Fightin_Aggie
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In reply to Rapier108 • 2:43p, 11/3/20
AG
Rapier108 said:
Fightin_Aggie said:
AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
You know you're responding to a lib sock.
I only suspected, but now I know!

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Keegan99
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2:46p, 11/3/20
AG
Have to admit, after being the poster child for badly run elections two decades ago, Florida's operation might be the best in the country in terms of data and transparency. Would be nice if all states were like this.
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McKinney Ag69
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2:48p, 11/3/20
AG
Where are you getting your live numbers?
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ThunderCougarFalconBird
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:48p, 11/3/20
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
it really is polling. Basically pollsters are using question stems that spit out the actual handful of people that are doing this and then extrapolating.
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aginresearch
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In reply to akm91 • 2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
Yup. It's bad in South Florida.
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
Challenger 17 said:
Where are you getting your live numbers?
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
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FriscoKid
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2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
Pollster on Hannity just said that if Florida gets to +250k it's all over and you can call the state.
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
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aginresearch
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In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
joeisdone.github.io
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Keegan99
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In reply to ThunderCougarFalconBird • 2:52p, 11/3/20
AG
blindey said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
it really is polling. Basically pollsters are using question stems that spit out the actual handful of people that are doing this and then extrapolating.

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