Florida Early Voting

129,316 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Maacus
astros4545
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Gyles Marrett said:

astros4545 said:

R +4,800 votes gap closed in past 60 minutes

been gaining 5,000-6,000 votes per hour (Mail In + Inperson early voting)
Where are you pulling this from? What I'm looking at isn't updating that often
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
Prosperdick
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Prosperdick said:


Now 411,573...LFG!!!
Gyles Marrett
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Prosperdick said:

Prosperdick said:


Now 411,573...LFG!!!
Didn't read the s in your handle at first. Thought Hunter Biden had a sock on here.
AgBQ-00
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How many more to eliminate the first status marker?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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AgBQ-00 said:

How many more to eliminate the first status marker?


6K
AgBQ-00
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Thanks! As an aside you used to post on Websider on Scout right?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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AgBQ-00 said:

Thanks! As an aside you used to post on Websider on Scout right?


Correct... 12MF
ContinentalAg
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My only concern with his method of predicting the results is that it can't really account for crossover votes. Both candidates will get some of course...is it possible that Biden gets more? Doubtful but possible.
AgBQ-00
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That's what i thought. Glad to have you posting over here!
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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ContinentalAg said:

My only concern with his method of predicting the results is that it can't really account for crossover votes. Both candidates will get some of course...is it possible that Biden gets more? Doubtful but possible.


Given all things being equal, Biden would have to pull about 10% more R crossovers than D crossovers.
Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

AgBQ-00 said:

Thanks! As an aside you used to post on Websider on Scout right?


Correct... 12MF
Among other handles.
Prosperdick
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ContinentalAg said:

My only concern with his method of predicting the results is that it can't really account for crossover votes. Both candidates will get some of course...is it possible that Biden gets more? Doubtful but possible.
In a state with DeSantis kicking butt as governor...very doubtful and if so not enough to make a difference.

By the way, 413,477 now.
astros4545
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Prosperdick said:

ContinentalAg said:

My only concern with his method of predicting the results is that it can't really account for crossover votes. Both candidates will get some of course...is it possible that Biden gets more? Doubtful but possible.
In a state with DeSantis kicking butt as governor...very doubtful and if so not enough to make a difference.

By the way, 413,477 now.
why is the 413K number really significant

I keep watching the D-R (In persor early voting + Vote by mail difference)


Currently that Gap is D + 210,190, but it was 235K this morning.
Closing about 4,000 per hour
Readzilla
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astros4545 said:

Prosperdick said:

ContinentalAg said:

My only concern with his method of predicting the results is that it can't really account for crossover votes. Both candidates will get some of course...is it possible that Biden gets more? Doubtful but possible.
In a state with DeSantis kicking butt as governor...very doubtful and if so not enough to make a difference.

By the way, 413,477 now.
why is the 413K number really significant

I keep watching the D-R (In persor early voting + Vote by mail difference)


Currently that Gap is D + 210,190, but it was 235K this morning.
Closing about 4,000 per hour
that 413 number is kind of pointless in my opinion just report the total gap. but yeah going down quick. it is basically in trump territory now
Prosperdick
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astros4545 said:

Prosperdick said:

ContinentalAg said:

My only concern with his method of predicting the results is that it can't really account for crossover votes. Both candidates will get some of course...is it possible that Biden gets more? Doubtful but possible.
In a state with DeSantis kicking butt as governor...very doubtful and if so not enough to make a difference.

By the way, 413,477 now.
why is the 413K number really significant

I keep watching the D-R (In persor early voting + Vote by mail difference)


Currently that Gap is D + 210,190, but it was 235K this morning.
Closing about 4,000 per hour
It's not, just giving an update.
akm91
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Wow, less than 200K gap 5 days before the election.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
barnyard1996
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akm91 said:

Wow, less than 200K gap 5 days before the election.
I mean, that is freaking lock right?
astros4545
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Florida still has early voting on Sunday

Do we expect Sunday to be a 'Souls to the Polls' day where D's can gain ground from post-Church voting

It was true of this past Sunday I believe
Dumb_Loggy
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astros4545 said:

Florida still has early voting on Sunday

Do we expect Sunday to be a 'Souls to the Polls' day where D's can gain ground from post-Church voting

It was true of this past Sunday I believe

Not necessarily true. Last Sunday was still a good day for Reps because they continued to shave away the deficit; just not at this current pace.
Keegan99
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Don't expect a big Dem surge from SttP. It didn't materialize this past weekend.

I do wonder what minority church attendance is even like currently, given COVID.
Prosperdick
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Keegan99 said:

Don't expect a big Dem surge from SttP. It didn't materialize this past weekend.

I do wonder what minority church attendance is even like currently, given COVID.

I'm sure it's still way down. Remember, Dems believe Covid is essentially Ebola so they are hunkered down, which bodes well for Election Day.
barnyard1996
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Maybe the souls dont support this ticket?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Florida weighted after today.

FLORIDA MODEL DAY 3:
PROJECTED TURNOUT:
10,827,769
PROJECTED VOTE TOTAL:
Trump - 50.32%
Biden - 47.05%
HoustonAggie37713
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Where was the guy saying that FL was going to be over by Wednesday?
Monywolf
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It is over.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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HoustonAggie37713 said:

Where was the guy saying that FL was going to be over by Wednesday?


It's over. Go look at the betting markets. Huge shift to Trump on the money line from late last week.
astros4545
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Last 80 minutes have only moved in R favor by about 500 votes...could just be a function of time of day

Previously was moving consistently at +4,000 votes per hour
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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astros4545 said:

Last 80 minutes have only moved in R favor by about 500 votes...could just be a function of time of day

Previously was moving consistently at +4,000 votes per hour


Polls have been closed a hour
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Also didn't realize the panhandle closed at 3 pm in Escambia and 5 pm elsewhere so the panhandle has been closed for a while, and that is heavy heavy R.

Due to Tropical Storm Zeta
OasisMan
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Here in Jacksonville, we can vote 7a-7p
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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OasisMan said:

Here in Jacksonville, we can vote 7a-7p


10-4... different in the western panhandle.

Duvalllllll
HoustonAggie37713
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Where was the guy saying that FL was going to be over by Wednesday?


It's over. Go look at the betting markets. Huge shift to Trump on the money line from late last week.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Which odds?
HoustonAggie37713
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https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/522957-dont-believe-the-polls-trump-is-winning-bigly
bmks270
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Dem lead is down to 204k. (44k R gain today).

In 2016 Trump was +201k on Election Day.

With Dems voting by mail expect the Trump Election Day margin to exceed 2016.
Bidens only hope of winning is massive party crossover and winning independents.
I think Trump is going to win Florida by 3+ considering his increased minority support since 2016 and the Cuban voting block in Florida.
aggiehawg
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bmks270 said:

Dem lead aIt's at 204k.

In 2016 Trump was +201k on Election Day.

With Dems voting by mail expect the Trump Election Day margin to exceed 2016.
Bidens only hope of winning is massive party crossover and winning independents.
I think Trump is going to win Florida by 3+ considering his increased minority support since 2016 and the Cuban voting block in Florida.
What I am looking at, the margin will be in Florida, over 5%.
 
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