AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
Florida Early Voting
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I don't need a model.AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
Let the tears begin.
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
The world needs mean tweets
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA
Trump 2024
Wishful thinkingFightin_Aggie said:I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
Fightin_Aggie said:I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
Even the Trump ahead polls have Biden ahead in the NPA.
The top split on NPA is from NYT, the bottom is from the Insider Advantage poll.
You know you're responding to a lib sock.Fightin_Aggie said:I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
I know I'll regret this but: What is the split on NPA's you are using?
AgBMF42 said:Fightin_Aggie said:I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
Even the Trump ahead polls have Biden ahead in the NPA.
Trump is going to win this state by 5+. You might need to start medicating now.
Not only that but citing "Polls"Rapier108 said:You know you're responding to a lib sock.Fightin_Aggie said:I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*
Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)
Rep+122,541
(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)
Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.
Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%
It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?
Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
JAG03 said:
Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
It's just their Election Day votes that are not reported yet. All the early vote and VBM are accounted for in the R+133k number. Miami-Dade's Election Day gap between R and D should be pretty minimal.
aginresearch said:
I know I'll regret this but: What is the split on NPA's you are using?
Using the same faulty polls that Silver is using. Hilarious!!
Not with the current released number, Dems lead Miami Dade in early and current voting by about 105k.JAG03 said:
Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
In Miami-Dade, the 2020 GOP vote has already surpassed the 2016 Trump vote by about 5,000.JAG03 said:
Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
The 2020 Dem vote is about 180K behind the 2016 Clinton vote.
This is from the joeisdone site and I'm not 100% sure if he has split the NDA votes into the county numbers or not.
But to answer your question, yes, I would love to see the lead for election day only hit 300K+
Up to +138,111 R now
I pray this man is correct! Tears will be delicious
FriscoKid said:So Republicans are creating massive fraud in Florida? Didn't he say that was the only possible way that Trump could win???Squadron7 said:FbgTxAg said:
Am i wrong to read this as good news for Team Red?
No. He said it woukd have to be a massive polling error and then in parenthesis put a comment about voter fraud.
Funny thing is most of us agree with him. We think there is massive polling errors.
Republicans now leading in ballots cast in Pinellas county (St Petersburg). This is a county that went for Obama in 2012, and Trump in 2016. This is a good sign.
Reps need to create a much bigger margin. Dade county is not even included yet in this.
Miami-Dade is way under performing for the Democrats. It will not help them in anyway. In other words Trump is over performing in Miami-Dade. Same for Broward and Palm Beach.
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Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
gotsand said:
County submitted totals.
From where? Is it public somewhere?
By whose estimate? I think they get 225k though. Just barely.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
Based on what? The margin in 2016 was ~115k.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
Is that because of projections on number of unaffiliated voters choosing Biden?
Keegan99 said:Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
Based on what? The margin in 2016 was ~115k.
Lib wishful thinking most likely
Historically Florida grows more red as the day goes on, especially with the panhandle counties open an extra hour later (in CST instead of EST).Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:
Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
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