Florida Early Voting

149,160 Views | 1283 Replies | Last: 3 yr ago by Maacus
Tylerjo97
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AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
FbgTxAg
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AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't need a model.


The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
JAG03
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Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
Bretton Gekko
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Let the tears begin.
Fightin_Aggie
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AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
The world needs mean tweets

My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA

Trump 2024
Nitro Power
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Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
Wishful thinking
Magic City Wings
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Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?


Even the Trump ahead polls have Biden ahead in the NPA.


The top split on NPA is from NYT, the bottom is from the Insider Advantage poll.

Rapier108
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Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
You know you're responding to a lib sock.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
aginresearch
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I know I'll regret this but: What is the split on NPA's you are using?
e=mc2
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AgBMF42 said:

Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?


Even the Trump ahead polls have Biden ahead in the NPA.


Trump is going to win this state by 5+. You might need to start medicating now.
AgBQ-00
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Rapier108 said:

Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
You know you're responding to a lib sock.
Not only that but citing "Polls"
Communists aren't people. They are property of the state.
Gigemags382
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JAG03 said:

Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?

It's just their Election Day votes that are not reported yet. All the early vote and VBM are accounted for in the R+133k number. Miami-Dade's Election Day gap between R and D should be pretty minimal.
e=mc2
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aginresearch said:

I know I'll regret this but: What is the split on NPA's you are using?


Using the same faulty polls that Silver is using. Hilarious!!
P.U.T.U
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JAG03 said:

Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
Not with the current released number, Dems lead Miami Dade in early and current voting by about 105k.
lunchbox
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JAG03 said:

Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
In Miami-Dade, the 2020 GOP vote has already surpassed the 2016 Trump vote by about 5,000.

The 2020 Dem vote is about 180K behind the 2016 Clinton vote.

This is from the joeisdone site and I'm not 100% sure if he has split the NDA votes into the county numbers or not.

But to answer your question, yes, I would love to see the lead for election day only hit 300K+
aggiez03
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aggiez03
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Up to +138,111 R now
Ukraine Gas Expert
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I pray this man is correct! Tears will be delicious
agsalaska
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FriscoKid said:

Squadron7 said:

FbgTxAg said:



Am i wrong to read this as good news for Team Red?
So Republicans are creating massive fraud in Florida? Didn't he say that was the only possible way that Trump could win???


No. He said it woukd have to be a massive polling error and then in parenthesis put a comment about voter fraud.

Funny thing is most of us agree with him. We think there is massive polling errors.
GCP12
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bmks270
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Republicans now leading in ballots cast in Pinellas county (St Petersburg). This is a county that went for Obama in 2012, and Trump in 2016. This is a good sign.
McKinney Ag69
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Reps need to create a much bigger margin. Dade county is not even included yet in this.
lunchbox
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GCP12 said:


Using those numbers, Biden would need to split the NPAs at 56.5/43.5 in order to catch Trump.

Using the previous hour's numbers, it was closer to 56/44...
captkirk
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aginresearch
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Miami-Dade is way under performing for the Democrats. It will not help them in anyway. In other words Trump is over performing in Miami-Dade. Same for Broward and Palm Beach.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
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Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
bmks270
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gotsand said:

County submitted totals.

From where? Is it public somewhere?
aginresearch
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By whose estimate? I think they get 225k though. Just barely.
Keegan99
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.


Based on what? The margin in 2016 was ~115k.
LostInLA07
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.


Is that because of projections on number of unaffiliated voters choosing Biden?
AvidAggie
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GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Line Ate Member
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AvidAggie said:

GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
also not counting the majority of the panhandle. Which you would assume is roughly a wash.
rgag12
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Keegan99 said:

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.


Based on what? The margin in 2016 was ~115k.


Lib wishful thinking most likely
Prosperdick
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Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
Historically Florida grows more red as the day goes on, especially with the panhandle counties open an extra hour later (in CST instead of EST).
EKUAg
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AvidAggie said:

GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?


They were not on the previous tweet. They are part of the latest count from what I can see. Dems up 101k ther, but down 148k statewide.
 
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