Florida Early Voting

133,844 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 11 mo ago by Maacus
akm91
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Pumpkinhead said:

A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.
2016 exit poll showed the NPA broke for Trump by 4%. Can't imagine Trump doing much worse than that in the current climate.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
digital_ag
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BoerneAg11 said:

There is a lot of early spiking of the football in this thread. The HUGE jump in non party affiliated voters is very difficult to account for.

Agreed. Enjoy the good early signs and let's hope and pray for the current trend to continue.
akm91
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aggiehawg said:

Ewok It Out08 said:

Miami-Dade not reporting is significant correct or was it a wash in 2016 in regards to election day voting split? So even if we do not know there numbers, it is not likely to increase the tally of the Dem side?
Point being, even if the Dem votes increase today, it's not enough to dig out of the hole state wide. Hillary won Miami/Dade in 2016 by 30% and still lost the state. That 30% was hundreds of thousands of votes in 2016. Biden hasn't banked enough Dem votes during early voting to withstand a Trump election day surge.

Meaning if things fall right, Miami/Dade comes very close to turning red.
Broward and Miami-Dade netted GCF 300K votes each (+36% and +30% respectively) and she still lost the election. Each point in Miami-Dade is approximately 10K votes.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
P.U.T.U
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Miami Dade and sometimes Boward do not release their voting numbers until later in the day, think it is because they hand count them but someone on here can correct me.

With most of the past elections these two counties are very heavy blue, this year the democrats are off by 30 points versus what they did in 2016. Since Florida does not release the real time votes they do release the real time how many for what party voted. Typically over 90% of people vote for their party line but most people also do not change their party they register for. There seems to be a big increase in minorities for Trump, especially the Cubans not wanting socialism, so they are predicting a large increase in registered democrat minorities voting for Trump.

From what I could find there were over 200,000 more registered democrats in Miami Dade and the majority of the democrats already voted early. So if it is close right now you have a county that had a 30 point swing which is almost unheard of. Democrats are not voting enough to offset the amount of republicans voting in blue counties so far in Florida.

At this point whatever lead in the blue counties will be washed out by the panhandle, with the republican lead growing anywhere from 5,000-20,000 per hour it does appear this will be a close race .

Right now we are assuming independent are split around 50/50.
Prosperdick
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BoerneAg11 said:

There is a lot of early spiking of the football in this thread. The HUGE jump in non party affiliated voters is very difficult to account for.
Well hell, the libs have been spiking the football for the last **cking month, do you blame us?
Tomas Hermensa
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Pumpkinhead said:

there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?
P.U.T.U
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akm91 said:

Pumpkinhead said:

A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.
2016 exit poll showed the NPA broke for Trump by 4%. Can't imagine Trump doing much worse than that in the current climate.
If anything I think it would be higher with the minority vote for Trump
FriscoKid
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texaglurkerguy said:

I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!
Hillary paid for a warrant to spy on Trump.
747Ag
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

747Ag said:

Pumpkinhead said:

A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.
Moreover, we don't know how many crossover votes have been cast.
It's gonna vary state to state, but in Florida, the D crossover is going to be much larger due to South Florida Latinos
Agreed. I am in Central FL, and the same vibe is prevalent with my Latino friends.
aggiehawg
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akm91 said:

aggiehawg said:

Ewok It Out08 said:

Miami-Dade not reporting is significant correct or was it a wash in 2016 in regards to election day voting split? So even if we do not know there numbers, it is not likely to increase the tally of the Dem side?
Point being, even if the Dem votes increase today, it's not enough to dig out of the hole state wide. Hillary won Miami/Dade in 2016 by 30% and still lost the state. That 30% was hundreds of thousands of votes in 2016. Biden hasn't banked enough Dem votes during early voting to withstand a Trump election day surge.

Meaning if things fall right, Miami/Dade comes very close to turning red.
Broward and Miami-Dade netted GCF 300K votes each (+36% and +30% respectively) and she still lost the election. Each point in Miami-Dade is approximately 10K votes.
Thank you for the correction. I lumped Broward and Miami/Dade together but failed to type in Broward too.
Tomas Hermensa
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This just in: 7 billion voters not registered to either party voted by mail in Alabama. Flipping blue for sure!!!
nortex97
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The Dem counties/cities notoriously submit their totals at the very bitter end, once they know the target. Brenda Snipes is...fortunately no longer in charge, though.



I doubt he wins by 5+, but I could see 3 percent in Florida.
FbgTxAg
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The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
HarryJ33tamu
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FbgTxAg said:


This dude is such a p***y

He sees the writing on the wall
Squadron7
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FbgTxAg said:



Am i wrong to read this as good news for Team Red?
aggiehawg
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FbgTxAg said:


And this one.



What a jerk!.
proc
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I still think the most telling statistic is that the advertising money, campaign managers and rallies were pulled from Florida over a week ago.
45-70Ag
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Who's Nate silver
Challenger 17
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FbgTxAg said:


Maybe giving his husband a bj would make him feel better.
aeroag14
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proc said:

I still think the most telling statistic is that the advertising money, campaign managers and rallies were pulled from Florida over a week ago.

According to the dems, that was a sign that Trump knew he was going to lose Florida
PneumAg
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HarryJ33tamu said:

FbgTxAg said:


This dude is such a p***y

He sees the writing on the wall


Let me translate that quote:

"When I actually do my job and look at the numbers, Florida doesn't look good for Biden. So I'll just go do something else other than my job."
Hood
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45-70Ag said:

Who's Nate silver
A dude that will be out of a job if Trump wins today.
Ulrich
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I'm not an expert but I feel like if your entire professional life and reputation are based on election tracking and commentary, you could be doing something more productive on election day than playing video games.
Prosperdick
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FriscoKid said:

texaglurkerguy said:

I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!

I wonder if he's still lurking?
atmhockey
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HarryJ33tamu said:

FbgTxAg said:


This dude is such a p***y

He sees the writing on the wall


Of course this dude plays FIFA and not Madden!
Prosperdick
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FbgTxAg said:


Uh oh, he stopped using his favorite word "obvious." Sounds like somebody is worried...obviously.
Pumpkinhead
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Bob Knights Liver said:

Pumpkinhead said:

there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/florida-vote-count-already-close-matching-2016-total/6084052002/

Quote:


Monday's totals from the state's Division of Elections show that through mail-in and early voting, 3.5 million registered Democrats have cast ballots compared with 3.4 million Republicans. Another 2.1 million no-party and third-party affiliated voters also have voted.
Good Poster
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Florida is a blood bath
agsquirrel97
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FbgTxAg said:


go into hiding, troll
Prosperdick
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Good Poster said:

Florida is a blood bath
116,442 as of last count. That's a 228K swing since last night.
txags92
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HarryJ33tamu said:

FbgTxAg said:


This dude is such a p***y

He sees the writing on the wall
Translate that as "I can't think of anything positive to point out for the democrats in what I am seeing, so I am going to do something mindless to avoid starting to cry this early in the day..."
Squadron7
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Seems like three years of threats, literal beatings, doxxing, and chasing republicans out of DC area eateries might place some downward pressure on the ability to locate people willing to tell strangers that they support Trump.

Odd.
HarryJ33tamu
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Pumpkinhead said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

Pumpkinhead said:

there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/florida-vote-count-already-close-matching-2016-total/6084052002/

Quote:


Monday's totals from the state's Division of Elections show that through mail-in and early voting, 3.5 million registered Democrats have cast ballots compared with 3.4 million Republicans. Another 2.1 million no-party and third-party affiliated voters also have voted.

poor poor pumpkin
rgag12
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FbgTxAg said:




Good job aggregating your garbage polls, Nate

How's that crow taste, Nate?
AlexNguyen
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So, Silver is hoping the independents break for Biden. Not likely Nate unless they like violence in the streets and economic shutdowns. This is Florida, Nate. They saw first hand what good Republican leadership looks like with their governor.

 
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