Florida Early Voting

133,268 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by Maacus
akm91
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aginresearch said:

Miami-Dade will not be helpful to the Democrats this time. Maybe Broward and Palm Beach. Maybe.
Oh I agree absolutely. That's why it is one of the counties that will decide it.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Prosperdick
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AG
FbgTxAg said:

Can they just call this one now?
aginresearch
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Ha! Ha! You're right.
harge57
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Just hit the 2016 Dem/Rep. Split.
will25u
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lunchbox
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I wish he would be able to throw some of today's Miami-Dade numbers in there.

Trump lost that county by 309K votes in 2016 so I would love to see his advantage today top that number.

I know it will eventually...I am just impatient.
Prosperdick
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AG

As the post 2 above mine stated, the R advantage will get greater as the day goes on so over halfway to the 2016 target is VERY good news.
black_ice
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lunchbox said:

I wish he would be able to throw some of today's Miami-Dade numbers in there.

Trump lost that county by 309K votes in 2016 so I would love to see his advantage today top that number.

I know it will eventually...I am just impatient.



Be patient my Jedi apprentice youngling
Silvertaps
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AG
These results are not based on actual ballots...correct? Rather, based on party identification?
AgBQ-00
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Correct. Not the actual votes but estimation based on party registration
"The Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution was never designed to restrain the people. It was designed to restrain the government."
rally-cap
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Up to 73K+
Gigemags382
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It seems like NPA is huge today too. Considering that Rep turnout is huge and Dem turnout light, it would seem highly likely that the NPAs who are showing up are disproportionately voting Rep.
akm91
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Silvertaps said:

These results are not based on actual ballots...correct? Rather, based on party identification?
Based on party identification of ballots cast but not who voted for. 2016 exit poll showed 8% cross over for both R's and D's. No way it will change significantly in favor of D's especially with all the information about hispanic and black support surging for Trump.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
aginresearch
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Reasonable assumption
Silvertaps
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akm91 said:

Silvertaps said:

These results are not based on actual ballots...correct? Rather, based on party identification?
Based on party identification of ballots cast but not who voted for. 2016 exit poll showed 8% cross over for both R's and D's. No way it will change significantly in favor of D's especially with all the information about hispanic and black support surging for Trump.


Makes sense. Seems more realistic for a Dem to cross over that an R this year, but I might be a bit bias.
GCP12
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Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
akm91
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Not looking good for D's in Broward and Palm Beah counties. Both are off the pace from 2016 already.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
aggiehawg
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GCP12 said:

Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.
aginlakeway
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aggiehawg said:

GCP12 said:

Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


Agree. Give youa reason for similar optimism in other states?
barnyard1996
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The polls were pretty consistent that Trump voters would greatly outnumber the election day count. Biden voters were early voters.

The above had nothing to do with party affiliation.
Tylerjo97
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sail33or
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Remember Florida has two time zones. And the Central Time Zone will be reported later and is all Trump.
Prosperdick
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Refresher on how accurate polling is in Florida...
Keegan99
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rgag12
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Prosperdick said:

FbgTxAg said:

Can they just call this one now?



I was waiting for this gif to show up
Corporal Punishment
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What do we know about uncounted vote by mail ballots? Are there a substantial number and are they being accounted for in this board's optimism?
policywonk98
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aggiehawg said:

GCP12 said:

Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


If he does hit 5-7% its really hard for me to imagine Dems not losing Congressional seats. I'm wondering if 26 and 27 get flipped back.
FireAg
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Even bigger though...FL could be election night foreshadowing...
tallgrant
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Corporal Punishment said:

What do we know about uncounted vote by mail ballots? Are there a substantial number and are they being accounted for in this board's optimism?
You referencing that mailroom tweet that ended up being 7 unopened ballots?
bmks270
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FL polls open for another 7 hours....

billydean05
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It should be called at 7 central as soon as all polling locations in the state close republicans leaving no doubt about Florida
txags92
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aginresearch said:

Today voters will have a propensity to vote for Trump. All voters. I think you can safely say that NPAs are breaking Trump today. I think it would also be fair to say that early voting NPAs probably broke for Biden. Today's vote probably looks like 60/40 Trump.

If you are pinning your hopes on crossover saving the Democrats in Florida then I fear you are going to be disappointed. Crossovers will be a wash overall. Always have been.

Democrats VBM lead has been wiped out already. NPAs are where the actions at. I think at the high end we're going to see a 55/45 Biden split of NPAs. Doesn't look like that's going to be enough at the rate we're going. If NPAs split less and many times it's a wash then it's almost all over now.
Just have to say...username checks out...and thanks for the analysis.
Silvertaps
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policywonk98 said:

aggiehawg said:

GCP12 said:

Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


If he does hit 5-7% its really hard for me to imagine Dems not losing Congressional seats. I'm wondering if 26 and 27 get flipped back.

Do they make it possible to see how many straight ticket down ballots?
lunchbox
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policywonk98 said:

aggiehawg said:

GCP12 said:

Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


If he does hit 5-7% its really hard for me to imagine Dems not losing Congressional seats. I'm wondering if 26 and 27 get flipped back.
I know most on here know this, but for those that don't...

Trump won Florida by 1.2% (~113K votes) in 2016.

Now we are talking about/hoping for a 5% victory on the low end...
nortex97
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Prosperdick said:


Refresher on how accurate polling is in Florida...
Exactly. The amazing thing though is that it is actually pretty precise. Average Florida polling is generally always off by around 5-7 percent, in the same direction.

CNN is just off by an extra 10 or so. I don't remember any of the 'major' polling firms wrongly calling a big margin for the GOP, somehow.
 
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