Florida Early Voting

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akm91
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In reply to aginresearch • 10:07a, 11/3/20
AG
aginresearch said:
Miami-Dade will not be helpful to the Democrats this time. Maybe Broward and Palm Beach. Maybe.
Oh I agree absolutely. That's why it is one of the counties that will decide it.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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Prosperdick
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In reply to FbgTxAg • 10:07a, 11/3/20
AG
FbgTxAg said:
Can they just call this one now?
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aginresearch
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In reply to akm91 • 10:08a, 11/3/20
AG
Ha! Ha! You're right.
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harge57
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10:20a, 11/3/20
AG
Just hit the 2016 Dem/Rep. Split.
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will25u
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10:24a, 11/3/20
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lunchbox
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10:24a, 11/3/20
I wish he would be able to throw some of today's Miami-Dade numbers in there.

Trump lost that county by 309K votes in 2016 so I would love to see his advantage today top that number.

I know it will eventually...I am just impatient.
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Prosperdick
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10:25a, 11/3/20
AG

As the post 2 above mine stated, the R advantage will get greater as the day goes on so over halfway to the 2016 target is VERY good news.
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black_ice
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In reply to lunchbox • 10:25a, 11/3/20
lunchbox said:
I wish he would be able to throw some of today's Miami-Dade numbers in there.

Trump lost that county by 309K votes in 2016 so I would love to see his advantage today top that number.

I know it will eventually...I am just impatient.



Be patient my Jedi apprentice youngling
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Silvertaps
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10:28a, 11/3/20
AG
These results are not based on actual ballots...correct? Rather, based on party identification?
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to Silvertaps • 10:30a, 11/3/20
AG
Correct. Not the actual votes but estimation based on party registration
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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rally-cap
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10:31a, 11/3/20
AG
Up to 73K+
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Gigemags382
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10:32a, 11/3/20
AG
It seems like NPA is huge today too. Considering that Rep turnout is huge and Dem turnout light, it would seem highly likely that the NPAs who are showing up are disproportionately voting Rep.
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akm91
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In reply to Silvertaps • 10:33a, 11/3/20
AG
Silvertaps said:
These results are not based on actual ballots...correct? Rather, based on party identification?
Based on party identification of ballots cast but not who voted for. 2016 exit poll showed 8% cross over for both R's and D's. No way it will change significantly in favor of D's especially with all the information about hispanic and black support surging for Trump.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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aginresearch
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 10:34a, 11/3/20
AG
Reasonable assumption
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Silvertaps
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In reply to akm91 • 10:35a, 11/3/20
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akm91 said:
Silvertaps said:
These results are not based on actual ballots...correct? Rather, based on party identification?
Based on party identification of ballots cast but not who voted for. 2016 exit poll showed 8% cross over for both R's and D's. No way it will change significantly in favor of D's especially with all the information about hispanic and black support surging for Trump.


Makes sense. Seems more realistic for a Dem to cross over that an R this year, but I might be a bit bias.
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GCP12
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10:37a, 11/3/20
AG
Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
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akm91
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10:39a, 11/3/20
AG
Not looking good for D's in Broward and Palm Beah counties. Both are off the pace from 2016 already.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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aggiehawg
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In reply to GCP12 • 10:40a, 11/3/20
AG
GCP12 said:
Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.
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aginlakeway
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:42a, 11/3/20
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aggiehawg said:
GCP12 said:
Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


Agree. Give youa reason for similar optimism in other states?
"I'm sure that won't make a bit of difference for those of you who enjoy a baseless rage over the decisions of a few teenagers."
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Barnyard96
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10:43a, 11/3/20
AG
The polls were pretty consistent that Trump voters would greatly outnumber the election day count. Biden voters were early voters.

The above had nothing to do with party affiliation.
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Tylerjo97
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10:44a, 11/3/20
AG
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sail33or
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10:45a, 11/3/20
AG
Remember Florida has two time zones. And the Central Time Zone will be reported later and is all Trump.
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Prosperdick
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10:45a, 11/3/20
AG

Refresher on how accurate polling is in Florida...
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Keegan99
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10:50a, 11/3/20
AG
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rgag12
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In reply to Prosperdick • 10:53a, 11/3/20
AG
Prosperdick said:
FbgTxAg said:
Can they just call this one now?


I was waiting for this gif to show up
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Corporal Punishment
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10:55a, 11/3/20
AG
What do we know about uncounted vote by mail ballots? Are there a substantial number and are they being accounted for in this board's optimism?
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policywonk98
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In reply to aggiehawg • 10:56a, 11/3/20
AG
aggiehawg said:
GCP12 said:
Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


If he does hit 5-7% its really hard for me to imagine Dems not losing Congressional seats. I'm wondering if 26 and 27 get flipped back.
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FireAg
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In reply to policywonk98 • 10:58a, 11/3/20
AG
Even bigger though...FL could be election night foreshadowing...
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tallgrant
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In reply to Corporal Punishment • 10:58a, 11/3/20
Corporal Punishment said:
What do we know about uncounted vote by mail ballots? Are there a substantial number and are they being accounted for in this board's optimism?
You referencing that mailroom tweet that ended up being 7 unopened ballots?
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bmks270
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10:58a, 11/3/20
AG
FL polls open for another 7 hours....

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billydean05
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10:59a, 11/3/20
It should be called at 7 central as soon as all polling locations in the state close republicans leaving no doubt about Florida
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txags92
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In reply to aginresearch • 10:59a, 11/3/20
AG
aginresearch said:
Today voters will have a propensity to vote for Trump. All voters. I think you can safely say that NPAs are breaking Trump today. I think it would also be fair to say that early voting NPAs probably broke for Biden. Today's vote probably looks like 60/40 Trump.

If you are pinning your hopes on crossover saving the Democrats in Florida then I fear you are going to be disappointed. Crossovers will be a wash overall. Always have been.

Democrats VBM lead has been wiped out already. NPAs are where the actions at. I think at the high end we're going to see a 55/45 Biden split of NPAs. Doesn't look like that's going to be enough at the rate we're going. If NPAs split less and many times it's a wash then it's almost all over now.
Just have to say...username checks out...and thanks for the analysis.
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Silvertaps
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In reply to policywonk98 • 11:00a, 11/3/20
AG
policywonk98 said:
aggiehawg said:
GCP12 said:
Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


If he does hit 5-7% its really hard for me to imagine Dems not losing Congressional seats. I'm wondering if 26 and 27 get flipped back.

Do they make it possible to see how many straight ticket down ballots?
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lunchbox
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In reply to policywonk98 • 11:00a, 11/3/20
policywonk98 said:
aggiehawg said:
GCP12 said:
Considering the Panhandle carried Trump over the finish line in 2016, Trump might win FL by 5+
Beginning to look that way to me too. Trump by 5-7%.

Biden didn't bank enough early votes in Duval, Broward, Miami/Dade nor Palm Beach counties to survive the coming surge.


If he does hit 5-7% its really hard for me to imagine Dems not losing Congressional seats. I'm wondering if 26 and 27 get flipped back.
I know most on here know this, but for those that don't...

Trump won Florida by 1.2% (~113K votes) in 2016.

Now we are talking about/hoping for a 5% victory on the low end...
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nortex97
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In reply to Prosperdick • 11:00a, 11/3/20
AG
Prosperdick said:

Refresher on how accurate polling is in Florida...
Exactly. The amazing thing though is that it is actually pretty precise. Average Florida polling is generally always off by around 5-7 percent, in the same direction.

CNN is just off by an extra 10 or so. I don't remember any of the 'major' polling firms wrongly calling a big margin for the GOP, somehow.
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