Florida Early Voting

132,771 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 7 mo ago by Maacus
Mostly Foggy Recollection
How long do you want to ignore this user?
FbgTxAg said:

Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?


Ends Sunday night
FbgTxAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

FbgTxAg said:

Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?


Ends Sunday night
Wow. It's likely it may be even going into Tuesday.

That is really good news.
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

FbgTxAg said:

Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?


Ends Sunday night
They are having another "souls to the polls" event tomorrow which should help Dems but churchgoers are fairly consistent and I think they got the bulk of them last Sunday. There's no doubt it will help some but I'm VERY interested in Polk county, I'm not sure they released their results yet from yesterday.
Gigemags382
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Just an Ag said:




This doesn't seem to be showing on the joeisdone site. Not updated there yet?
Gigemags382
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gigemags382 said:

Just an Ag said:




This doesn't seem to be showing on the joeisdone site. Not updated there yet?

Actually nothing seems to be updating on the joeisdone site. Looks like it's about an hour behind now. Anyone else seeing the same issue?
bmks270
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Gigemags382 said:

Just an Ag said:




This doesn't seem to be showing on the joeisdone site. Not updated there yet?

It's only Polk county.
IDaggie06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Prosperdick said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

FbgTxAg said:

Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?


Ends Sunday night
They are having another "souls to the polls" event tomorrow which should help Dems but churchgoers are fairly consistent and I think they got the bulk of them last Sunday. There's no doubt it will help some but I'm VERY interested in Polk county, I'm not sure they released their results yet from yesterday.


This souls to the polls type crap might help them in Florida but the dems are going to have a heck of a time with any mass community voter push like this on Tuesday in states like Michigan, Minnesota , and Pennsylvania with all the lockdowns and fear of covid by the left.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Rs have surpassed the target and now have a 2500 vote lead on 2016z
aggiehawg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
SIAP. Newish numbers. Check Miami/Dade and Palm Beach counties.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
Beerosch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I don't think the numbers have updated since lunch
Mostly Foggy Recollection
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Oh wow... Duval flipped red
NobodyAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Oh wow... Duval flipped red

Is that bad?
All Texags posters are equal but some are more equal than others.
Monywolf
How long do you want to ignore this user?
It is if you are voting for Dementia Joe.
SwigAg11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Oh wow... Duval flipped red


Is that county historically Dem?
Mostly Foggy Recollection
How long do you want to ignore this user?
SwigAg11 said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Oh wow... Duval flipped red


Is that county historically Dem?


It was last election.
Beerosch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Florida numbers not moving as much today. Anything to be worried about?
aggiehawg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
haybob15 said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Oh wow... Duval flipped red

Is that bad?
2000 election. The counties having recounts were primarily in south Florida, Miami/Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. But Duval county was also having a recount and courts cases. Just wasn't numerically higher than those three counties so it got less attention.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Beerosch said:

Florida numbers not moving as much today. Anything to be worried about?


It's Halloween and Saturday
aggiehawg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Beerosch said:

Florida numbers not moving as much today. Anything to be worried about?
Still have tomorrow for EV and then Tuesday for ED.
OasisMan
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Oh wow... Duval flipped red
duval -- jacksonville -- was red in 2016 -- like 49% vs 47%
FbgTxAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
OasisMan said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Oh wow... Duval flipped red
duval -- jacksonville -- was red in 2016 -- like 49% vs 47%


Republicans will outvote Dems 2 or 3 to 1 on Tuesday. I dunno how many votes that is, but you can count on It.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Stressboy
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
What does this mean with the mail-in votes?
aggiehawg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
OasisMan said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Oh wow... Duval flipped red
duval -- jacksonville -- was red in 2016 -- like 49% vs 47%
Quote:

Fueled by a populist broadside from suburban and rural voters, Republican nominee Donald Trump edged out Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida, despite her strong showings in more urban areas like Jacksonville that have historically swayed statewide elections. His victory upends traditional assumptions about how to win elections in the Sunshine State.

In Jacksonville - Florida's most populous city and a right-leaning battleground - Clinton outperformed every Democratic presidential candidate since former President Jimmy Carter in 1976. She lost Duval County by about 6,000, according to unofficial and incomplete vote tallies.
Quote:

Trump dominated suburbs like Clay and St. Johns counties, a growing series of affluent neighborhoods outside Jacksonville. Strong performances in cities like Jacksonville, and in traditional Democratic strongholds in South Florida, were not enough to make up for what political observers said Tuesday were stunning margins in these more rural areas.

Trump's top three gains over Mitt Romney's results - in suburban Pasco, Pinellas and Volusia - were enough to vault him over Barack Obama's Florida margin in 2012.

Less than 1,000 more Republicans turned out to vote in Jacksonville than Democrats, and Clinton narrowly won the early vote. Viewed on its own, those results might have presaged a Democratic win in the state.

The conventional wisdom said drive up turnout in South Florida, and compete in Duval County. Keep the margins close with Republicans in the Northeast Florida city that's becoming increasing competitive. That was enough for Obama. Twice.

Not this time.
LINK
EKUAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Dem early vote lead down to 92k.
FbgTxAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Florida is done. We can shut this thread down.
IDaggie06
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
EKUAg said:

Dem early vote lead down to 92k.


Where do you all get your info from? The target early site is showing republicans have taken the lead by 20k.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
How long do you want to ignore this user?
IDaggie06 said:

EKUAg said:

Dem early vote lead down to 92k.


Where do you all get your info from? The target early site is showing republicans have taken the lead by 20k.


That's inferred. This is Florida SOS registered voters. Tons of D voters in S Florida crossing over.
EKUAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Yep. Just using vasic affiliation of voters.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
Cheetah01
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Numbers looking better for Dems today. Could be very, very close.
black_ice
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Cheetah01 said:

Numbers looking better for Dems today. Could be very, very close.
Cheetah01
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Not hoping for that, I'm just looking at the numbers. Dems have a very slight advantage when you NPA super voters To their current lead.
Always_Right
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Cheetah01
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
My bad. I got this wrong. Trump has a huge NPA super voter advantage. I was looking at it wrong. Whewfeel much better!
SwigAg11
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Do we have any guess how NPA voters are breaking?
Gigemags382
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Based on TargetSmart Race + Education data, almost every demographic except African-American (a known concern for Dems) are close to or have exceeded the 2016 final election numbers in FL. Except for Caucasian - Non-College which is a full 1.4 million behind the 2016 final election turnout for this demographic. 4.6m in 2016 vs 3.2m so far in 2020. Whereas Caucasian - College was 2.1m in 2016 and has already reached 2.1m in 2020.

I'm seeing similar type turnout in almost every state. Caucasian Non-College is Trump's bread and butter. Is the turnout from this demographic supposed to be absolutely massive on Election Day? The other demographics have mostly already met their 2016 turnout. They're obviously going to be more than 0 on Election Day and VBM that continues to be counted. It seems like there's a massive gap to be made up by Caucasian Non-College to not only meet 2016 turnout but exceed it like others.

I know Trump is supposed to have huge gains on Election Day, but it doesn't seem possible that only this one demographic is left to vote. Is Election Day turnout going to be almost exclusively Caucasian - Non-College or is this demographic's turnout this election going to be down relative to other demographics?

The bright side of things is that the Republican/Democrat splits in Florida and many other states are looking mostly good despite having a huge deficit in Caucasian Non-College turnout up to this point. So maybe a ton of upside there?
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.