Florida Early Voting

129,288 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 2 mo ago by Maacus
Red Steagall
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AG
Trump takes Florida with ease.
akm91
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AG 2000' said:

akm91 said:

Brenda Snipes was removed. Broward County election officials are elected and not appointed so chances are it won't be any better.

Broward County Elections Supervisor was appointed by the governor after her retirement.

So on one hand you have a GOPer running it now. On the other, not sure if he has cleaned out all the Dem loyalists that were doing the dirty work.
thanks for correcting that. The Broward Election Supervisor elections are happening this year so currently it is still the appointed person in charge.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
dreyOO
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aginresearch said:

Something tells me Miami-Dade is going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats today. They will need to look to Broward and Palm Beach. Even those maybe a pale shade of Red.

All going to come down to volume. Republicans must keep the foot on the gas pedal until the polls close.

I'm praying for tons of crossover votes. Not just in FL but nationwide.
FbgTxAg
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AG
dreyOO said:

aginresearch said:

Something tells me Miami-Dade is going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats today. They will need to look to Broward and Palm Beach. Even those maybe a pale shade of Red.

All going to come down to volume. Republicans must keep the foot on the gas pedal until the polls close.

I'm praying for tons of crossover votes. Not just in FL but nationwide.


Be careful what you wish for. Republican soccer-moms are a problem.
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
akm91
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FbgTxAg said:

dreyOO said:

aginresearch said:

Something tells me Miami-Dade is going to be a bloodbath for the Democrats today. They will need to look to Broward and Palm Beach. Even those maybe a pale shade of Red.

All going to come down to volume. Republicans must keep the foot on the gas pedal until the polls close.

I'm praying for tons of crossover votes. Not just in FL but nationwide.


Be careful what you wish for. Republican soccer-moms are a problem.
Not this election. Soccer moms are also more worried about safety and security and given the summer of rioting there won't be massive cross-over votes.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Lorne Malvo
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Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA
Prosperdick
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AG
dreyOO
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Agreed. Trump pisses off the moms. But in the end, they vote for Law and Order. Plus their husbands should reinforce Promises Kept + economy.
LostInLA07
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AG
Lorne Malvo said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA


Yes where can we see this data? Is it based on a modeled outcome or actual votes?
Readzilla
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AG
Lorne Malvo said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA


https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ Updates every 20 minutes. Actual votes based on party affiliation but doesn't account who they voted for
bmks270
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AG
LostInLA07 said:

Lorne Malvo said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA


Yes where can we see this data? Is it based on a modeled outcome or actual votes?


https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
PneumAg
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Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


Is this statewide?
Cactus Jack
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AG
dreyOO said:

Agreed. Trump pisses off the moms. But in the end, they vote for Law and Order. Plus their husbands should reinforce Promises Kept + economy.
That's good news. We know that Republican women only vote that way because their husbands tell them to. So hopefully most husbands are talking to their wives about this.
Prosperdick
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AG
PneumAg said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


Is this statewide?
Yes and it's R's up 35,000 now (probably more since that was 15 minutes ago). Remember though, this is a count of registered R's versus registered D's. If WAY more R's vote D's the Dems could win but for the most part an R votes R and a D votes D and crossovers more or less cancel out (although some speculate there will be more D's voting R this election, especially in swing states).

One last point, this doesn't count the non affiliated voters so they could break big one way or the other (or cancel each other out).

Bottom line - you want more of your registered voters voting than the other party, ESPECIALLY the 4/4 voters (have voted the in the last 4 elections).
texaglurkerguy
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Readzilla said:

Lorne Malvo said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA


https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ Updates every 20 minutes. Actual votes based on party affiliation but doesn't account who they voted for
This is important to keep in mind. There will be net party crossover, and the assumptions joeisdone uses for NPA split aren't that sophisticated (just assumes the NPA split in a given county will mirror the R/D split).
aTm2004
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AG
dreyOO said:

Agreed. Trump pisses off the moms. But in the end, they vote for Law and Order. Plus their husbands should reinforce Promises Kept + economy.
Do you know what else pisses off the moms? Kids being forced to go to school via a computer and having to either hire someone to be there with them, take time away from their job to make sure their kids pay attention and do their work, or taking time away from being able to go and run needed errands during the day that keep the family running. Only one candidate is openly advocating for schools to be open while the other is wanting more shut downs.
barnyard1996
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AG
texaglurkerguy said:

Readzilla said:

Lorne Malvo said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA


https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ Updates every 20 minutes. Actual votes based on party affiliation but doesn't account who they voted for
This is important to keep in mind. There will be net party crossover, and the assumptions joeisdone uses for NPA split aren't that sophisticated (just assumes the NPA split in a given county will mirror the R/D split).
Don't all the polls except the R leaning ones have Joe winning FL? None of this should matter.
American Hardwood
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Ewok It Out08 said:

How far up do the Republicans need to be going into the evening? I seem to recall from the last election as CNN constantly referenced this, Broward county seems to hold a good portion of their votes until the end. Am I remembering that correctly?
My recollection is that the Florida panhandle is always late coming in and is usually a strong red. Maybe someone with better memory than mine can confirm.
dreyOO
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Cactus Jack said:

dreyOO said:

Agreed. Trump pisses off the moms. But in the end, they vote for Law and Order. Plus their husbands should reinforce Promises Kept + economy.
That's good news. We know that Republican women only vote that way because their husbands tell them to. So hopefully most husbands are talking to their wives about this.

Do you work in media? Or do you not know what the word "reinforce" means?
texag_89
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300k R turnout advantage.

Trump 5+ Win.

Mark this one.

aginresearch
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Today voters will have a propensity to vote for Trump. All voters. I think you can safely say that NPAs are breaking Trump today. I think it would also be fair to say that early voting NPAs probably broke for Biden. Today's vote probably looks like 60/40 Trump.

If you are pinning your hopes on crossover saving the Democrats in Florida then I fear you are going to be disappointed. Crossovers will be a wash overall. Always have been.

Democrats VBM lead has been wiped out already. NPAs are where the actions at. I think at the high end we're going to see a 55/45 Biden split of NPAs. Doesn't look like that's going to be enough at the rate we're going. If NPAs split less and many times it's a wash then it's almost all over now.
akm91
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2016 Exit polls show NPA broke for Trump by 4%. I just don't see how they'll break for Biden this
go around. If anything, I see Trump gaining in this group.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
texaglurkerguy
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barnyard1996 said:

texaglurkerguy said:

Readzilla said:

Lorne Malvo said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA


https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ Updates every 20 minutes. Actual votes based on party affiliation but doesn't account who they voted for
This is important to keep in mind. There will be net party crossover, and the assumptions joeisdone uses for NPA split aren't that sophisticated (just assumes the NPA split in a given county will mirror the R/D split).
Don't all the polls except the R leaning ones have Joe winning FL? None of this should matter.
Polling on average is showing a tossup, maybe the slightest Biden lean but certainly within the MOE. Even the friendliest Trump polls only have him winning by 2, so it'll be close. I certainly wouldn't take the party registration vote counts as gospel in a race this close.
DTP02
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AG
texaglurkerguy said:

Readzilla said:

Lorne Malvo said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Rep lead just jumped to +22k (up from 9k earlier)


SIAP but where are you following these FL numbers? I would like to follow too. TIA


https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/ Updates every 20 minutes. Actual votes based on party affiliation but doesn't account who they voted for
This is important to keep in mind. There will be net party crossover, and the assumptions joeisdone uses for NPA split aren't that sophisticated (just assumes the NPA split in a given county will mirror the R/D split).


Trump could lose the NPA split 55-45 from what I recall and still win fairly comfortably. The math in FL has been pretty daunting for Biden as soon as we started getting the hard data.
Lester Freamon
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AG
Yes, Panhandle is usually latest to report (other than some of the late breaking shenanigans in Broward and Miami Dade) due to being in Central time zone. It is *distinctly* red.
barnyard1996
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AG
aginresearch said:

Today voters will have a propensity to vote for Trump. All voters. I think you can safely say that NPAs are breaking Trump today. I think it would also be fair to say that early voting NPAs probably broke for Biden. Today's vote probably looks like 60/40 Trump.

If you are pinning your hopes on crossover saving the Democrats in Florida then I fear you are going to be disappointed. Crossovers will be a wash overall. Always have been.

Democrats VBM lead has been wiped out already. NPAs are where the actions at. I think at the high end we're going to see a 55/45 Biden split of NPAs. Doesn't look like that's going to be enough at the rate we're going. If NPAs split less and many times it's a wash then it's almost all over now.
But the polls have Joe winning FL. This just can't be so!!!
Detmersdislocatedshoulder
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American Hardwood said:

Ewok It Out08 said:

How far up do the Republicans need to be going into the evening? I seem to recall from the last election as CNN constantly referenced this, Broward county seems to hold a good portion of their votes until the end. Am I remembering that correctly?
My recollection is that the Florida panhandle is always late coming in and is usually a strong red. Maybe someone with better memory than mine can confirm.


Your memory is spot on. West florida/ panhandle of Florida carried the election for bush in 2000. Definately republican leaning.
aginresearch
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AG
Well what can you say...
DTP02
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AG
American Hardwood said:

Ewok It Out08 said:

How far up do the Republicans need to be going into the evening? I seem to recall from the last election as CNN constantly referenced this, Broward county seems to hold a good portion of their votes until the end. Am I remembering that correctly?
My recollection is that the Florida panhandle is always late coming in and is usually a strong red. Maybe someone with better memory than mine can confirm.


This is true, and west part of panhandle is in central time zone so voting ends an hour later there. I don't think it will be close enough that we have to wait on those extra panhandle votes though.
aginresearch
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Also a FYI that the guy who is running joeisdone has said there a number of counties not feeding live data. This data should be net heavily Republican according to him. There's probably more Republican votes floating around out there than he is showing. That would be a Democrat nightmare.
akm91
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DTP02 said:

American Hardwood said:

Ewok It Out08 said:

How far up do the Republicans need to be going into the evening? I seem to recall from the last election as CNN constantly referenced this, Broward county seems to hold a good portion of their votes until the end. Am I remembering that correctly?
My recollection is that the Florida panhandle is always late coming in and is usually a strong red. Maybe someone with better memory than mine can confirm.


This is true, and west part of panhandle is in central time zone so voting ends an hour later there. I don't think it will be close enough that we have to wait on those extra panhandle votes though.
Miami-Dade and Broward will decide it. GCF was +600K in those two counties alone and still lost by 120K.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
will25u
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If you are looking for Girl Scout Cookies, please support my daughter!

https://digitalcookie.girlscouts.org/scout/mazie600453
aginresearch
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AG
Miami-Dade will not be helpful to the Democrats this time. Maybe Broward and Palm Beach. Maybe.
FbgTxAg
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AG
Can they just call this one now?
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Dumb_Loggy
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AG
Rep vote count just passed the +56k advantage!
 
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