Florida Early Voting

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Not a Bot
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12:29a, 10/30/20
AG
Telemundo poll Showing Trump way out performing 2016 numbers in terms of Latino violets in Florida.

Not so reassuring is the fact that he's lost considerable support among seniors. Seniors make up such a huge part of the electorate in Florida and many are registered Republicans. Race may come down to how many seniors defect away from Trump.
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aginresearch
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In reply to Not a Bot • 6:26a, 10/30/20
AG
In Sumter county where the Villages are located Republicans are outperforming 2016 early voting. Now that does not guarantee that Trump will get the same numbers among senior citizens that he did in 2016. However, once again we can be nearly certain that the senior citizens voting on election day this year will be overwhelmingly pro trump. Do you see many pro Biden senior citizens voting on election day?

My guess is that Trump slightly under performs with senior citizens this year. He makes up for that in some other demographics.
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aginresearch
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In reply to Twice an Aggie • 6:30a, 10/30/20
AG
Sunday, Nov 1. Trajectory of in person early voting would seem to indicate the final gap prior to election day will be between 50k - 90k for the Democrats. That would either be spot on 2016's gap or below it.
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Gigemags382
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In reply to Prosperdick • 6:49a, 10/30/20
AG
Prosperdick said:

Hope there isn't too much commentary in this one to offend anyone.


What does he mean by " Rs should enter election day essentially 100,000 votes ahead of 2016 when Trump won by 113,000"?

He also says that "In 2016 Ds led on election eve by 96,000". So in order for R's to enter Election Day 100,000 votes ahead of 2016, they would need to be +4000, right? I didn't think that was within the realm of possibilities. I thought it was pretty clear R's would be behind entering Election Day (likely within 100k votes though) but close enough to be able to make up the gap.

Maybe I'm misreading something in the tweet.
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JB99
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 7:15a, 10/30/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
Prosperdick said:

Hope there isn't too much commentary in this one to offend anyone.


What does he mean by " Rs should enter election day essentially 100,000 votes ahead of 2016 when Trump won by 113,000"?

He also says that "In 2016 Ds led on election eve by 96,000". So in order for R's to enter Election Day 100,000 votes ahead of 2016, they would need to be +4000, right? I didn't think that was within the realm of possibilities. I thought it was pretty clear R's would be behind entering Election Day (likely within 100k votes though) but close enough to be able to make up the gap.

Maybe I'm misreading something in the tweet.


2016 they entered ED 96000 behind and ended up winning by 113000.

Assuming they have the same margins in 2020 on ED. If Republicans enter election day at 96,000+13,000= 109,000 behind democrats, we should win by 100,000 votes. That,s what he's saying....I think.

On second thought, the way he phrased it, you may be right.

They could get it close to +96,000 after today and still have 2 more days of early voting, so getting -4000 seems doable.
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HoustonAggie37713
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7:24a, 10/30/20
Joe is scared:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/add-florida-to-list-of-swing-states-where-early-voting-data-favors-a-trump-victory
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Prosperdick
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8:07a, 10/30/20
AG

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akm91
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8:10a, 10/30/20
AG
EV Gap narrows further; down to D+161K. Looks like it'll be right around D+100K heading into ED
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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bmks270
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:13a, 10/30/20
AG
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
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astros4545
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:14a, 10/30/20
AG
I agree, not sure why he is focusing on IPEV and not Main in vote combined

That 161K number factors in both and is the only number that matters in my opinion, and how fast the R's can close the gap
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bmks270
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In reply to akm91 • 8:15a, 10/30/20
AG
akm91 said:
EV Gap narrows further; down to D+161K. Looks like it'll be right around D+100K heading into ED


And with an Election Day turnout of 2-3 million, Trump will only need a +10% margin to win, which Rs already have exceeded in early in person voting and the margin will probably be closer to Trump +20% on Election Day.
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akm91
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:15a, 10/30/20
AG
I went and took a look at 2016 FL EV and there were a total of 3.9M including non-returned ballots. As of right now, there are 7.8M EV already!
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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Prosperdick
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:17a, 10/30/20
AG
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
Those are two blue counties that are way under performing in TOTAL, not just in person, which of course, we know the frightened Dems are cowering in their homes so they are voting more by mail. It looks like you are just a drive by and if you would ready the entire thread you would understand his methodology but I've already wasted enough key strokes on you, have a good day.
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TRM
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:20a, 10/30/20
AG
Prosperdick said:
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
Those are two blue counties that are way under performing in TOTAL, not just in person, which of course, we know the frightened Dems are cowering in their homes so they are voting more by mail. It looks like you are just a drive by and if you would ready the entire thread you would understand his methodology but I've already wasted enough key strokes on you, have a good day.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643

Quote:
One particular area of concern is the relative share of ballots cast by young voters of color and less-reliable Democratic voters. Part of the problem, according to interviews with a dozen Democratic elected officials and operatives, is the Biden campaign's decision to discourage field staff from knocking on doors during the pandemic and its subsequent delay in greenlighting and funding a return to door-to-door canvassing.
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bmks270
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:21a, 10/30/20
AG
Prosperdick said:
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
Those are two blue counties that are way under performing in TOTAL, not just in person, which of course, we know the frightened Dems are cowering in their homes so they are voting more by mail. It looks like you are just a drive by and if you would ready the entire thread you would understand his methodology but I've already wasted enough key strokes on you, have a good day.


I started the thread, have read every post, and have posted a few analysis. I even said FL is shaping up to be Trump +3% a few days ago.

Repent.

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aggiehawg
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:25a, 10/30/20
AG
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
It is not meaningless. The ONLY way a Dem presidential candidate wins Florida is running the table in Miami/Dada, Palm Beach and Broward counties to offset the rest of the primarily red state. (With the possible exception of Duval County in the north.)

Hillary won in Miam/Dade by 30 percentage points in 2016 and still lost the state. That's why the recount in 2000 centered on those three counties. They are that critical.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:25a, 10/30/20
AG
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
Those are two blue counties that are way under performing in TOTAL, not just in person, which of course, we know the frightened Dems are cowering in their homes so they are voting more by mail. It looks like you are just a drive by and if you would ready the entire thread you would understand his methodology but I've already wasted enough key strokes on you, have a good day.


I started the thread and have read every post and posted a few analysis.

Repent.

OK my apologies but reading comprehension might not be your greatest strength.

Larry is comparing the OVERALL lead going into election day which includes in person early voting PLUS vote by mail. Your comment that it's meaningless is flat out wrong and in fact works AGAINST Dems because they have cannibalized more of their election day voting than Republicans.

If your stance was correct and more Dems have voted by mail, all things being equal, they should have a BIGGER lead going into election day than they did in 2016. It is certainly not trending that way.

Again, apologies for calling you a drive by and thank you for starting this thread.
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Gigemags382
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8:32a, 10/30/20
AG
In the last 20 minutes there was a large increase in total votes of about 80k, and R's closed the gap by about 2300 on D's. I assume a lot of that was a large drop of VBM? If so that seems like good news. During the same time period yesterday there was also a larger than normal increase in total votes, but D's increased the gap by close to 2000 that time.

Hopefully we see a continued closing of the gap throughout today!
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Barnyard96
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8:33a, 10/30/20
AG
Mind the gap.
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bmks270
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:33a, 10/30/20
AG
Prosperdick said:
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
Those are two blue counties that are way under performing in TOTAL, not just in person, which of course, we know the frightened Dems are cowering in their homes so they are voting more by mail. It looks like you are just a drive by and if you would ready the entire thread you would understand his methodology but I've already wasted enough key strokes on you, have a good day.


I started the thread and have read every post and posted a few analysis.

Repent.

OK my apologies but reading comprehension might not be your greatest strength.

Larry is comparing the OVERALL lead going into election day which includes in person early voting PLUS vote by mail. Your comment that it's meaningless is flat out wrong and in fact works AGAINST Dems because they have cannibalized more of their election day voting than Republicans.

If your stance was correct and more Dems have voted by mail, all things being equal, they should have a BIGGER lead going into election day than they did in 2016. It is certainly not trending that way.

Again, apologies for calling you a drive by and thank you for starting this thread.


I just see him focusing on the in person early vote. Which I think isn't as useful as looking at the total including mail ins.

The most useful data from the in person early voting is that the last time I check Trump was +13% among in person voters. Meaning Trump should get that or better on Election Day. The total vote cast is still 2 million short of 2016. If they show up on Election Day then Trump has this in the bag as he will far exceed a +10% margin, and the 200k vote deficit.
Independent lean or crossover votes could always throw a wrench in things and go for Biden, but Trump is sitting pretty based on voter turnout data.
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akm91
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In reply to aggiehawg • 8:36a, 10/30/20
AG
Hillary won only 9 counties in 2016 with Miami-Dade and Broward combining to net her +600K votes. If Biden is performing way below Hillary in those 2 counties, as the data suggests, this is going to be a beat down of epic proportions.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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astros4545
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In reply to Gigemags382 • 8:37a, 10/30/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
In the last 20 minutes there was a large increase in total votes of about 80k, and R's closed the gap by about 2300 on D's. I assume a lot of that was a large drop of VBM? If so that seems like good news. During the same time period yesterday there was also a larger than normal increase in total votes, but D's increased the gap by close to 2000 that time.

Hopefully we see a continued closing of the gap throughout today!
He mentioned a couple of counties were doing once a day updates, and not every 20 minute updates...Polk county being one of them...They just got yesterday's results from those counties updated
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Tony Franklins Other Shoe
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In reply to akm91 • 8:39a, 10/30/20
AG
akm91 said:
Hillary won only 9 counties in 2016 with Miami-Dade and Broward combining to net her +600K votes. If Biden is performing way below Hillary in those 2 counties, as the data suggests, this is going to be a beat down of epic proportions.
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bmks270
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In reply to akm91 • 8:40a, 10/30/20
AG
akm91 said:
Hillary won only 9 counties in 2016 with Miami-Dade and Broward combining to net her +600K votes. If Biden is performing way below Hillary in those 2 counties, as the data suggests, this is going to be a beat down of epic proportions.

How did unaffiliated voters break in those counties in 2016? The raw data on returned ballots isn't going to show us the independent lean in those counties which could still favor democrats.
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aginresearch
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:40a, 10/30/20
AG
I think your assessment is correct. I'm not concerned about crossover. I am concerned about where NPAs go. That's the other number to be concerned with as well. The NPA lean plus the Democrats early voting margin is the number to beat. What is that NPA lean? Is it +20% Biden, +10% Biden, 50/50?
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Gigemags382
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In reply to astros4545 • 8:40a, 10/30/20
AG
astros4545 said:
Gigemags382 said:
In the last 20 minutes there was a large increase in total votes of about 80k, and R's closed the gap by about 2300 on D's. I assume a lot of that was a large drop of VBM? If so that seems like good news. During the same time period yesterday there was also a larger than normal increase in total votes, but D's increased the gap by close to 2000 that time.

Hopefully we see a continued closing of the gap throughout today!
He mentioned a couple of counties were doing once a day updates, and not every 20 minute updates...Polk county being one of them...They just got yesterday's results from those counties updated


That makes sense. Thanks.
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8:41a, 10/30/20
AG
I hope this guy is accurate and Florida is a bellwether for the rest of the swing states. Certainly an interesting follow.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:42a, 10/30/20
AG
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:
bmks270 said:
Prosperdick said:


This is meaningless because way more democrats voted by mail, so of course their in person voting is lower than 2016.
Those are two blue counties that are way under performing in TOTAL, not just in person, which of course, we know the frightened Dems are cowering in their homes so they are voting more by mail. It looks like you are just a drive by and if you would ready the entire thread you would understand his methodology but I've already wasted enough key strokes on you, have a good day.


I started the thread and have read every post and posted a few analysis.

Repent.

OK my apologies but reading comprehension might not be your greatest strength.

Larry is comparing the OVERALL lead going into election day which includes in person early voting PLUS vote by mail. Your comment that it's meaningless is flat out wrong and in fact works AGAINST Dems because they have cannibalized more of their election day voting than Republicans.

If your stance was correct and more Dems have voted by mail, all things being equal, they should have a BIGGER lead going into election day than they did in 2016. It is certainly not trending that way.

Again, apologies for calling you a drive by and thank you for starting this thread.


I just see him focusing on the in person early vote. Which I think isn't as useful as looking at the total including mail ins.

The most useful data from the in person early voting is that the last time I check Trump was +13% among in person voters. Meaning Trump should get that or better on Election Day. The total vote cast is still 2 million short of 2016. If they show up on Election Day then Trump has this in the bag as he will far exceed a +10% margin, and the 200k vote deficit.
Independent lean or crossover votes could always throw a wrench in things and go for Biden, but Trump is sitting pretty based on voter turnout data.
There are WAY more 4/4 Republican registered voters that have yet to vote than 4/4 Democrat registered voters (4/4 means they have voted in each of the past 4 elections and are considered a very safe bet).
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aggiehawg
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In reply to akm91 • 8:44a, 10/30/20
AG
akm91 said:
Hillary won only 9 counties in 2016 with Miami-Dade and Broward combining to net her +600K votes. If Biden is performing way below Hillary in those 2 counties, as the data suggests, this is going to be a beat down of epic proportions.
Exactly. And with Trump (presumably) running up the score in Texas and Florida and likely substantially eroding the larger Dem margins in New York and California, he could win the popular vote when it is all said and done.

The Trump parades and marches in New York and California got my attention. The margins will be eroding substantially is my guess. Hillary only won the popular vote in 2016 because she ran up the score in California. I don't think Biden has that level of support this go around.

If it's not close, they can't cheat as effectively.
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akm91
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:49a, 10/30/20
AG
I couldn't find exit poll data for just those counties, but based on CNN exit poll data for FL it was +4% for Trump for I's.

NBC has some really interesting nuggets from 2016 to watch for in FL:

  • Non-Cuban Hispanic: D+45
  • Cuban Hispanic: R+13
  • Non-Hispanic: R+6
  • Black Male: D+71
  • Black Female: D+81
  • Independents: R+4

NBC 2016 FL Exit Survey


No way Biden is getting +71 for black men and +81 for black women this time around. It also seems he's not going to get +45 for non-cuban hispanics either.



"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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astros4545
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In reply to aginresearch • 8:50a, 10/30/20
AG
aginresearch said:
I think your assessment is correct. I'm not concerned about crossover. I am concerned about where NPAs go. That's the other number to be concerned with as well. The NPA lean plus the Democrats early voting margin is the number to beat. What is that NPA lean? Is it +20% Biden, +10% Biden, 50/50?

I think this is correct as well

So the early vote lead is currently D +156K


Here is his NPA split
Split estimate
Estimated by proportional assignment of NPAs by county R/D share
Democrats: 861057 (52.60%)
Republicans: 775878 (47.40%)
Difference: (D-R) 85178 (5.20%)
2016 overall EV split: 52.43%D - 47.57%R, gap 4.86%


So in reality...R's are down 156K + 85K in my opinion
The NPA split does make some assumptions in that the NPA votes in each individual country follows the D/R split of that country...which seems reasonable enough.
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bmks270
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In reply to akm91 • 8:56a, 10/30/20
AG
WSJ published yesterday:

Quote:
Mr. Trump's apparent improvement from four years ago can be credited to a lopsided lead among Cuban Americans in Florida, an influential voting bloc in the state. In that segment, the president leads Mr. Biden by a 71%-23% margin, according to the survey. Florida exit polls from 2016 showed that Mr. Trump earned 54% of the Cuban-American vote, compared with 41% for Mrs. Clinton, who lost the state.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/election-live-updates-trump-biden-2020-10-29/card/F6PPyw64gZL8dypQXzc0
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akm91
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In reply to bmks270 • 8:59a, 10/30/20
AG
Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
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bmks270
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In reply to akm91 • 9:01a, 10/30/20
AG
akm91 said:
Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?

Cubans recognize communists when they see them.

Is there any other demographic that leans R +48 ?

This is a demographic that I think republicans can keep even after Trump is gone from politics. The Democrats aren't getting any less radical.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to akm91 • 9:01a, 10/30/20
AG
akm91 said:
Holy cow! Jumped from +13 to +48?
And they are motivated to vote. Those Latinos for Trump boat and car parades were massive in Florida.
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