Florida Early Voting

132,727 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 7 mo ago by Maacus
aginresearch
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Democrats killed it in VBM. Not so much in person early voting. This is a base turnout election. The Democrats are not turning out in person. The modeling was wrong.

But what do we know? Dave Wasserman says we're all rubes.
Prosperdick
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HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

StoneCold99 said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Prosperdick said:




Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?
Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.
No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.


Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.
He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.


Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.
LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.


Yeah, he's pure science.
Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.
Prosperdick
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Faustus said:

Prosperdick said:

Ulrich said:

DCPD158 said:

I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

The measure is of limited utility, like everything else, but at least it's something. I think a decent model can be built by combining voter registration, early vote affiliation, polling, sign counts, and donor counts, but every one of those requires so much context that it's hard to draw a conclusion.

And the real problem with all this is that there's only one "real" event every four years. The landscape changes faster than that, so it's mostly theory in a vacuum with no chance to calibrate.
Of course it's assuming an R votes R and a D votes D, it's illegal to open the ballots before Election Day. As for the landscape change in Florida there have been almost 200,000 more Republicans registered to vote since 2016.

I suppose you could argue all those people who took the time to register Republican despise Trump and are only doing this as a cruel prank on Election Day.

Seriously though, if you look at the rallies in Florida as well as the polling of Hispanics/Cubans for Trump there's a VERY good chance there will be more registered Dems voting Trump (at least at the top of the ticket) than R's voting for Biden.
Which still leaves almost 200k more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida as of August 31,2020.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

There are a lot more Republican Super Voters left too, and Republicans tend to vote more on election day. I'd put this one in the bag for Republicans. However just because you haven't voted in the last four elections doesn't mean that you're not turning out for this one. Democrats have enough voters out there to win, it just doesn't look likely at this point.
From the website: By Party Affiliation Archive - Data for 1972 - 2016

I'm curious how accurate that number really is going back to '72. I know plenty of voter rolls are wildly out of date but point taken. If those numbers are active and not due to bloated rolls and if they can convince enough Dems to vote for one of the worst statist career politicians ever they've got a shot.
HoustonAggie37713
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Prosperdick said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

StoneCold99 said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Prosperdick said:




Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?
Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.
No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.


Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.
He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.


Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.
LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.


Yeah, he's pure science.
Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.
He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.
mavsfan4ever
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Gigemags382 said:

I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?

2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)

2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)

If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?

So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.
What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?
Prosperdick
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HoustonAggie37713 said:

Prosperdick said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

StoneCold99 said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Prosperdick said:




Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?
Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.
No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.


Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.
He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.


Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.
LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.


Yeah, he's pure science.
Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.
He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.
Giving mathematical commentary on how many ballots are needed to hit a number isn't what I would call commentary without backing. Wait a second, are you one of those folks that thinks math is racist?
will25u
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mavsfan4ever said:

Gigemags382 said:

I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?

2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)

2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)

If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?

So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.
What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?
Florida breaks their voters down by party, so it is easy to get the numbers from the FL SOS website.
aginresearch
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TargetSmart's modeling is proprietary. It's very possible for it to be wrong. They already altered it once at the beginning of early voting which made it more friendly to the Democrats (they are a Democrat data analytics firm). However, I think it gives a reasonable insight into how things are actually going on the ground in a particular state.

Specifically in regards to Ohio I don't know if the elections a voter votes in is publicly available. If it is then you can make an educated guess as to how they voted. While it will be imperfect at the individual voter level in the aggregate it should be accurate enough to spot trends.
Captain Positivity
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From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:

Quote:


Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.


Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.

If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682
akm91
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EV gap is now down to D+172K. Looks like it'll be down to ~ D+150K by end of day. This is brutal for D's.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
FbgTxAg
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How much money did Bloomberg drop in Florida?

He dropped over a Billion in the primary, right? Then decided to try to help Biden in Florida.

A fool and his money are easily separated.
aginresearch
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Most election day voters have been time shifted off of election day for 2020. I was using a 20% election day turnout as a guide to make some projections. Looks like that is pretty close. Among those voting on election day it is going to be a minimum +16% Republican or more over Democrats. I am betting around 50% of all voters at the polls on election day will be Republican. The total number of voters will be down for all parties on election day, including Republicans
clw04
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mavsfan4ever said:

Gigemags382 said:

I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?

2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)

2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)

If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?

So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.
What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?
TargetSmart (if they do their job well) likely builds a preference based on prior primary elections, social media content, and potentially even data from Amazon for purchases.
clw04
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Cactus Jack said:

From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:

Quote:


Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.


Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.

If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682
They are publishing the amount of registered R-D-NPA/other voters that have voted in the last 4 elections (super-voters) to try to show voter cannibalism. Rs have many more super-voters left than D and you would expect them to vote.
astros4545
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I just compared the last 2 updates (20 min time difference)

R's gained in VBM by 200 votes which was surprising to me...will keep an eye on that

Overall gap shrank by 4,700 last 60 minutes
Gigemags382
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I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?
bmks270
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Gigemags382 said:

I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?

It closes at 7 PM in a lot of places.
2h 15m to go, the after work rush.
Gigemags382
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bmks270 said:

Gigemags382 said:

I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?

It closes at 7 PM in a lot of places.
2h 15m to go, the after work rush.


Ah so closed tomorrow and until Nov 3?
bmks270
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Gigemags382 said:

bmks270 said:

Gigemags382 said:

I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?

It closes at 7 PM in a lot of places.
2h 15m to go, the after work rush.


Ah so closed tomorrow and until Nov 3?


No, they are open through October 31, Saturday, and some places Sunday too, Nov. 1.

They close at 7 pm, is what I thought you were asking, but there are more days left.
mavsfan4ever
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Some of Schweikart's latest tweets seem to indicate that we won't even get down to Biden +88,000 by election day. Am I reading those wrong?

Is the momentum stopping? We are currently at democrats +181,000 and only have two days left. He seems to be getting less optimistic. But his tweets are all confusing as ****, so I can't really tell.
Cheetah01
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Nah, we are good. Right now it is D+167,417. We will get down to probably 75-125K by election day.
Keegan99
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GOP stronghold Polk County has not reported results today.

SwigAg11
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Any idea why they haven't submitted today's results?
Mr. AGSPRT04
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Delivery facilitated by USPS
Cheetah01
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Good deal. I think we will end up cutting off 50-60K today.
CT75
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SwigAg11 said:

Any idea why they haven't submitted today's results?
Need those to be held back in reserve!!
HoustonAggie37713
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Prosperdick said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Prosperdick said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

StoneCold99 said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Prosperdick said:




Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?
Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.
No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.


Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.
He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.


Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.
LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.


Yeah, he's pure science.
Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.
He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.
Giving mathematical commentary on how many ballots are needed to hit a number isn't what I would call commentary without backing. Wait a second, are you one of those folks that thinks math is racist?
Nice Straw Man. How about him saying the black vote in NC will be 15% in NC in a tweet. I hope he's right, but he has 200 tweets in a row with nothing but 100% positive news for the GOP. He's a blatant homer.
Prosperdick
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Hope there isn't too much commentary in this one to offend anyone.
barnyard1996
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Can we officially say polls are wrong again this cycle?

Sarge 91
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HoustonAggie37713 said:

Prosperdick said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Prosperdick said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Gyles Marrett said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

StoneCold99 said:

HoustonAggie37713 said:

Dumb_Loggy said:

Prosperdick said:




Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?
Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.
No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.


Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.
He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.


Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.
LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.


Yeah, he's pure science.
Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.
He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.
Giving mathematical commentary on how many ballots are needed to hit a number isn't what I would call commentary without backing. Wait a second, are you one of those folks that thinks math is racist?
Nice Straw Man. How about him saying the black vote in NC will be 15% in NC in a tweet. I hope he's right, but he has 200 tweets in a row with nothing but 100% positive news for the GOP. He's a blatant homer.
Two things can be true at once: 1) He is a homer; 2) He is citing plain facts and the fact that he is a homer does not change math and statistics.
Cheetah01
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This is an uninformed comment. Of course he's a homer. He was part of the Trump campaign. He's not a fake news guy trying to hide the fact that they are part of the equivalent of a Biden super PAC.
HoustonAggie37713
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Cactus Jack said:

From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:

Quote:


Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.


Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.

If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682


That certainly reads less favorable for Trump.
FbgTxAg
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HoustonAggie37713 said:

Cactus Jack said:

From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:

Quote:


Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.


Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.

If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682


That certainly reads less favorable for Trump.


I've been saying that Republicans are ALSO cannibalizing their ED vote, so it's more important to deal in percentages rather than real numbers. They're not gonna make up the number of votes they did on ED in 2018, but they should easily make up the same or greater percentage that day, since Dems have likely cannibalized their ED it's total even more.
panamamyers00
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I doubt Republicans are cannibalizing at anywhere near the rate that Democrats are. In a place like florida, will there be any Democrats at all left to vote on election day? Not many.
Twice an Aggie
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Doesn't early voting end tomorrow in Florida?
 
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