Faustus said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Ulrich said:

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DCPD158 said:

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I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

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The measure is of limited utility, like everything else, but at least it's something. I think a decent model can be built by combining voter registration, early vote affiliation, polling, sign counts, and donor counts, but every one of those requires so much context that it's hard to draw a conclusion.

And the real problem with all this is that there's only one "real" event every four years. The landscape changes faster than that, so it's mostly theory in a vacuum with no chance to calibrate.

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Of course it's assuming an R votes R and a D votes D, it's illegal to open the ballots before Election Day. As for the landscape change in Florida there have been almost 200,000 more Republicans registered to vote since 2016.

I suppose you could argue all those people who took the time to register Republican despise Trump and are only doing this as a cruel prank on Election Day.

Seriously though, if you look at the rallies in Florida as well as the polling of Hispanics/Cubans for Trump there's a VERY good chance there will be more registered Dems voting Trump (at least at the top of the ticket) than R's voting for Biden.

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Which still leaves almost 200k more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida as of August 31,2020.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

There are a lot more Republican Super Voters left too, and Republicans tend to vote more on election day. I'd put this one in the bag for Republicans. However just because you haven't voted in the last four elections doesn't mean that you're not turning out for this one. Democrats have enough voters out there to win, it just doesn't look likely at this point.

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Prosperdick said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

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He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

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Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

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LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.

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Yeah, he's pure science.

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Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.

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Gigemags382 said:

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I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?

2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)

2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)

If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?

So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.

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mavsfan4ever said:

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Gigemags382 said:

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I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?

2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)

2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)

If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?

So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.

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What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?

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Quote:

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Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.

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mavsfan4ever said:

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Gigemags382 said:

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I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?

2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)

2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)

If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?

So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.

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What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?

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Cactus Jack said:

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From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:

Quote:

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Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.

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Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.

If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682

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Gigemags382 said:

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I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?

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bmks270 said:

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Gigemags382 said:

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I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?

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It closes at 7 PM in a lot of places.
2h 15m to go, the after work rush.

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Gigemags382 said:

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bmks270 said:

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Gigemags382 said:

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I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?

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It closes at 7 PM in a lot of places.
2h 15m to go, the after work rush.

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Ah so closed tomorrow and until Nov 3?

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SwigAg11 said:

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Any idea why they haven't submitted today's results?

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Prosperdick said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Prosperdick said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

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He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

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Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

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LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.

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Yeah, he's pure science.

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Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.

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He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.

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Giving mathematical commentary on how many ballots are needed to hit a number isn't what I would call commentary without backing. Wait a second, are you one of those folks that thinks math is racist?

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Cactus Jack said:

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From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:

Quote:

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Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.

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Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.

If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Cactus Jack said:

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From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:

Quote:

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Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.

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Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.

If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682

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That certainly reads less favorable for Trump.

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