Florida Early Voting

132,764 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 7 mo ago by Maacus
Legend
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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Legend said:

FWIW, Pinellas county just flipped to overall Red for the first time. Many people say it is a bellwether county.


Pinellas is outperforming for Trump by 27!!!! Points versus 2016.
Yep, on election day. Dems had about 30k mail in lead that was cut some with IPEV, but has been totally wiped out with ED votes.

policywonk98
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aginresearch said:

Yeah 3 is high end and would be a massive victory. Just don't know how these NPAs are going to break overall. Today I'm confident they are breaking Trump. It's the early vote I'm concerned about.


True, but Bush turned a .01% victory into a 5% victory in Florida 4 years later. So its not completly unprecedented. In 2016 you had a VEP differential in FL downballot votes cast vs President votes of -1%. With an additional 35% VEP nonvote. So jumping 3% is easy enough with a more motivated electorate and organized ground game. 3-5% has been done by the GOP just in the last 16 years. 5-7% is where we certainly would be talking wave election territory in other areas of the country.
ChrisTAMU
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I'm a Trump guy, was a genuine question.
Ulrich
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Legend said:

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

Legend said:

FWIW, Pinellas county just flipped to overall Red for the first time. Many people say it is a bellwether county.


Pinellas is outperforming for Trump by 27!!!! Points versus 2016.
Yep, on election day. Dems had about 30k mail in lead that was cut some with IPEV, but has been totally wiped out with ED votes.

A stark reminder of just how old the Florida electorate is.
Keegan99
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Pretty much spot on. If FL is over 3% then I'm feeling good. Over 4% I'm ecstatic. And over 5% I'm euphoric.
Gigemags382
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R gain slowing down quite a bit. Was around 12-15k gain per 20 minutes in the early morning. Has been 10k, 9k, and 6k in each of the last 20 min segments.

D'a have slowed down some, but R's have slowed down more.

Trump should still have FL in the bag just fine, but interested to see how it continues to trend.
Prosperdick
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ChrisTAMU said:

I'm a Trump guy, was a genuine question.
I did say I was sorry for being snarky.
SirDippinDots
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Gigemags382 said:

R gain slowing down quite a bit. Was around 12-15k gain per 20 minutes in the early morning. Has been 10k, 9k, and 6k in each of the last 20 min segments.

Trump should still have FL in the bag just fine, but interested to see how it continues to trend.

Republicans are at work now or taking care of their family.
I wish a buck was still silver, it was back, when the country was strong.
Gigemags382
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Another 6k gain now in the last 20 minutes. R's have surpassed a 100k lead.

D's led 112k at 7:03am. R's lead 105k at 12:43pm
Expert Witness
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Reps just surpassed 105k.
astros4545
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Gigemags382 said:

R gain slowing down quite a bit. Was around 12-15k gain per 20 minutes in the early morning. Has been 10k, 9k, and 6k in each of the last 20 min segments.

D'a have slowed down some, but R's have slowed down more.

Trump should still have FL in the bag just fine, but interested to see how it continues to trend.


This was a trend last week as well

The pace slows down during lunch time
Prosperdick
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astros4545 said:

Gigemags382 said:

R gain slowing down quite a bit. Was around 12-15k gain per 20 minutes in the early morning. Has been 10k, 9k, and 6k in each of the last 20 min segments.

D'a have slowed down some, but R's have slowed down more.

Trump should still have FL in the bag just fine, but interested to see how it continues to trend.


This was a trend last week as well

The pace slows down during lunch time
Not only do most Republicans work but their employers give them time off to vote. Why vote during your lunch break?
Line Ate Member
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Lol just think about all of those lawyers that Biden has held on retainage across the country. I hope they charge him out the ass.
Prosperdick
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Gigemags382
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Prosperdick said:



Are Election Day numbers in Miami-Dade available anywhere? Still not updated on the joeisdone site.
aggiehawg
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This is how this morning started.

Keegan99
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aggiez03
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Gigemags382 said:

Prosperdick said:



Are Election Day numbers in Miami-Dade available anywhere? Still not updated on the joeisdone site.
Well, these guys ARE NOT updating today and I am not sure why?

https://www.miamidadedems.org/who_is_winning_the_election_in_florida

Maybe on suicide watch?
FbgTxAg
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The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
GAC06
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aggiehawg said:

This is how this morning started.




And the panhandle is deep red
bmks270
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So far R-D ballots are R +26!

If that holds in other swing states, Trump will
win.
747Ag
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GAC06 said:

aggiehawg said:

This is how this morning started.


And the panhandle is deep red
Additionally, they are on Central Time... delayed an hour from the rest of Florida.
cupcakesprinkles
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DCPD158
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SirDippinDots said:

Gigemags382 said:

R gain slowing down quite a bit. Was around 12-15k gain per 20 minutes in the early morning. Has been 10k, 9k, and 6k in each of the last 20 min segments.

Trump should still have FL in the bag just fine, but interested to see how it continues to trend.

Republicans are at work now or taking care of their family.


They are at lunch
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
aeroag14
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aggiehawg said:

This is how this morning started.


WOW. It really is going to be a blood bath in Florida
Ewok It Out08
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Miami-Dade not reporting is significant correct or was it a wash in 2016 in regards to election day voting split? So even if we do not know there numbers, it is not likely to increase the tally of the Dem side?
bmks270
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For some reason Miami dade and Monroe county aren't reporting today's cast ballots.
Gigemags382
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Ewok It Out08 said:

Miami-Dade not reporting is significant correct or was it a wash in 2016 in regards to election day voting split? So even if we do not know there numbers, it is not likely to increase the tally of the Dem side?

Based on some of the other Dem counties that are reporting, it seems likely that Miami-Dade election day numbers should be roughly a wash.
Pumpkinhead
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A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.
K-Bob
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They need to figure out how many votes they need.
Wearer of the Ring
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how do they know which voters have ED?
aggiehawg
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Ewok It Out08 said:

Miami-Dade not reporting is significant correct or was it a wash in 2016 in regards to election day voting split? So even if we do not know there numbers, it is not likely to increase the tally of the Dem side?
Point being, even if the Dem votes increase today, it's not enough to dig out of the hole state wide. Hillary won Miami/Dade in 2016 by 30% and still lost the state. That 30% was hundreds of thousands of votes in 2016. Biden hasn't banked enough Dem votes during early voting to withstand a Trump election day surge.

Meaning if things fall right, Miami/Dade comes very close to turning red.
747Ag
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Pumpkinhead said:

A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.
Moreover, we don't know how many crossover votes have been cast.
BoerneAg11
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There is a lot of early spiking of the football in this thread. The HUGE jump in non party affiliated voters is very difficult to account for.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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747Ag said:

Pumpkinhead said:

A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.
Moreover, we don't know how many crossover votes have been cast.


It's gonna vary state to state, but in Florida, the D crossover is going to be much larger due to South Florida Latinos
 
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