Florida Early Voting

129,832 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Maacus
Prosperdick
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Gyles Marrett said:

about the hit the 500K IPEV advantage for R's! Gap under 139K now....
501,678!!!
akm91
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Just did! R+502K IPEV
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Just an Ag
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titan
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akm91 said:

Just did! R+502K IPEV
What does this mark and mean as regards going into Election Day again? .
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
astros4545
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+4,400 votes past 60 min
Keegan99
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Interesting bit from the creator of joeisdone.

This is a guy who is motivated enough to spend many, many hours on a GOP voting project, but is still scared enough to not admit it publicly.

akm91
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It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
titan
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akm91 said:

It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.
Thanks for outlining all that clearly.

FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
texaglurkerguy
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I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!
SwigAg11
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Keegan99 said:

Interesting bit from the creator of joeisdone.

This is a guy who is motivated enough to spend many, many hours on a GOP voting project, but is still scared enough to not admit it publicly.




Did this get deleted or is my browser acting up?
Keegan99
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I think it got deleted.

Basically confessed to being a public Biden supporter, and that it was necessary for his career. And that PC culture has the strongest hold on the mid-career professional class.

Edit: If he deleted it, I grabbed a screenshot.

titan
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Don't see any reason why Independents that went for Trump before would switch to Biden's economic plan now.
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
aggiehawg
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titan said:


Don't see any reason why Independents that went for Trump before would switch to Biden's economic plan now.
I'll add to that with how many Dems that voted for Hillary can't stomach Biden's economic plan either?

That could be the big surprise in this cycle. The amount of Dem crossover vote.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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The key metric lurker is looking for is the R that didn't vote in 2016 or voted L and casting their vote for Biden in 2020. According to Florida SOS that's about 200K voters.

Those who voted for Trump in 2016 aren't changing their vote in 2020. Period.

I didn't vote for Trump in 2016. Voted Johnson, then voted in the D primary this year because I didn't want Sanders wing getting any traction. I voted for Trump in the election and know 27 other people who didn't vote or voted Johnson who cast their vote for Trump.

Now if all 200K of those voted Biden, then you have to worry about the crazy crossover of D Latinos to Trump in South Florida.

Any way you cut it, I don't see a path for Biden in Florida. The only other one would be to flip the Independent vote by 25 points from 2016. I don't see Trump by 14 in 2020 with Indies but I also don't see Biden by 9.... really in any battleground.
titan
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aggiehawg said:

titan said:


Don't see any reason why Independents that went for Trump before would switch to Biden's economic plan now.
I'll add to that with how many Dems that voted for Hillary can't stomach Biden's economic plan either?

That could be the big surprise in this cycle. The amount of Dem crossover vote.
In direct support of your point, is this thread, though it concerns Michigan!

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3151454
FrioAg 00:
Leftist Democrats "have completely overplayed the Racism accusation. Honestly my first reaction when I hear it today is to assume bad intentions by the accuser, not the accused."
aTm2004
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texaglurkerguy said:

I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!
How many Johnson voters will vote for Trump now vs. Biden's big government/Dark Winter plan?
astros4545
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One less Florida voter

aTm2004
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astros4545
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+4,800 votes past hour
Gyles Marrett
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For those that don't think R's will turn out like they normally do on ED:

Polk County. Essentially tied right now currently in EV (IP and by mail). Was the same in 2016 with the early vote.

Trump beat Hillary in Polk County by 14% and the end of the party.
akm91
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Indies in 2016 was +4 for Trump. I just don't see Biden making any significant dent into that margin.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Prosperdick
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texaglurkerguy said:

I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!

Ask and thou shall receive...
BigFred
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Here comes the cavalry!

Keegan99
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I'm not sure that Dem accomplished what he intended.

That is a ringing endorsement for why vote by mail is not to be trusted.
HoustonAggie37713
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akm91 said:

It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.


I think if Trump were in trouble in Florida we would know it. Desantis has this. Time to focus on the Midwest.
Gyles Marrett
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All I see is a messy mailroom and a tweet trying to get attention. Odd to anyone he didn't zoom in and actually show any of what we were looking at was ballots?
CashMcMog
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Curious question.

All these tallies just are based on known party affiliation. No one really knows who voted what yet. For all we know a lot of Dems switched over. Right?
BigFred
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HoustonAggie37713 said:

akm91 said:

It means that R's have a +500K vote advantage vs D's for in person early voting at this point intime. When you combine it with early voting by mail, the D advantage is less than 150K and rapidly shrinking at approximately 4K per hour. R's have significant advantage on ED, I think it was +200K in 2016.

All the data is based on party registration and does not account for cross over voting. There are lots of polls that indicate significant D's voting R this election (especially Latino and Black vote) which means, in my opinion, Trump is going to blow Biden out in FL.


I think if Trump were in trouble in Florida we would know it. Desantis has this. Time to focus on the Midwest.
I think if the R's were winning in Florida, you would know it through Trumps tweets.
rgag12
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So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie
BigFred
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rgag12 said:

So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie
Keep in mind this is Miami Dade. more less, the hood.
aTm2004
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Like this?



How about the Politico article saying Biden is in trouble with Hispanic support in Florida?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/biden-narrow-lead-florida-hispanics-433570
NobodyAg
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rgag12 said:

So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie

Don't feed the liberal trolls.
All Texags posters are equal but some are more equal than others.
aTm2004
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CashMcMog said:

Curious question.

All these tallies just are based on known party affiliation. No one really knows who voted what yet. For all we know a lot of Dems switched over. Right?
As far as I know, yes, it's only on party affiliation. One thing we do know are that a large majority of Cubans and Venezuelans in South Florida are voting from Trump. I'd venture to guess many would be registered as democrats.
BigFred
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aTm2004 said:

Like this?



How about the Politico article saying Biden is in trouble with Hispanic support in Florida?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/biden-narrow-lead-florida-hispanics-433570

Negative. Not winning BIG in Florida if at all.
Gyles Marrett
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haybob15 said:

rgag12 said:

So one post office has a backed up mail room. If there are a lot of ballots in there how many net votes is that for Dems? 100 at most?

FL is lost to dems

Edit: meant to be in reply to bigfreddie

Don't feed the liberal trolls.
and if the Dems are planning fraud they are really terrible at making it look real....VBM has really slowed up. Almost non existent now. So we going to go 5 days or so with basically no more coming in and then on 11/4 300K ballots are going to show up? Yeah that wouldn't look suspicious
 
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