Florida Early Voting

134,128 Views | 1283 Replies | Last: 1 yr ago by Maacus
Ayto Siks
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I've been tracking the wait times to vote in Lee county FL. I haven't seen it dip under 1.5 hours in multiple locations. Gonna have to suck it up because I can't wait any longer to vote.
Captain Positivity
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AG
This is my concern about in-person voting and the poll numbers. Are a certain amount of people just not going to think the line is worth it? A lot of people who get the circular news on social media may think Biden has it in the bag in some states that are actually very competitive and may just not want to wait in line on Election Day for a perceived meaningless vote.
AlexNguyen
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Moxley said:

This is my concern about in-person voting and the poll numbers. Are a certain amount of people just not going to think the line is worth it? A lot of people who get the circular news on social media may think Biden has it in the bag in some states that are actually very competitive and may just not want to wait in line on Election Day for a perceived meaningless vote.
This is where Trump's apparently strong on-the-ground organization needs to get ahold of potential voters that may have stayed home due to laziness or whatever and get to the polls. That is political activism at its core. I remember see old footage as a junior higher of union workers voting en masse, and it made a big impression on me.
Captain Positivity
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In hindsight this is one of my favorite still frames of election night from 2016, at least until the dominoes started to fall.

They had just finished a segment where supposedly insider sources from the Trump campaign were telling people they were very concerned about the independent vote in Florida.

Then they cut to Clinton headquarters where they were reporting the Clinton team is very excited about their numbers in Florida. As they were reporting this information the crowd started to cheer.

I can't recall if information came out later about this, but I think the Trump insiders were deliberately downplaying their Election Day numbers in Florida. They knew they were having a big day.

Note the numbers on the bottom right:


This frame was taken 20 minutes later:

clw04
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2021NCAggies said:

clw04 said:

2021NCAggies said:

If you go by Target Smart early voting.

States that look good for Trump: Florida, NC, Texas, Ohio, Wisconsin (barely), Minnesota (barely), Nevada and New Mexico

States that look bad: Pennsylvania (real bad), Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, Michigan. All of these look real bad for Trump, minus Michigan which is trending DEM +3%

Granted most of the votes for Dems is in Philly and Allegheny for Pennsylvania. Detroit (Wayne) for Michigan. Atlanta For Georgia
Target Smart is only reporting Mail-In Ballots. Its pretty widely known that most Trump voters will do in person voting (early or election day)
No, they are calculating everything, not just mail ins
Might want to check that assumption.

Elect Project is showing almost 1.5 Million mail in ballot and reporting zero in-person early voting.

Target Smart is showing just over 1.3 Million votes and are typically 1-2 days behind.

This tells me that Target Smart is not reporting any inperson voting right now or elect project has over-reported the number of mail in ballots.
Keegan99
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AG


You work to win. Looks like Trump picked up a possible 10k+ votes in Florida today.
FbgTxAg
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AG
The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
Prosperdick
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AG

Added over 3,000 in less than an hour.
Prosperdick
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Captn_Ag05
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Republicans are shaving off around 25,000 votes a day at this rate. The mail in ballots have really slowed.

Tomorrow will be interesting as it is the traditional "souls to the polls" day where Democrats would bus black voters to the polls after church. Many blacks are voting by mail and with Covid, I'm not sure what the level of activity will be.
Ayto Siks
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Early Florida voter, checking in.

Prosperdick
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Captn_Ag05 said:

VRepublicans are shaving off around 25,000 votes a day at this rate. The mail in ballots have really slowed.

Tomorrow will be interesting as it is the traditional "souls to the polls" day where Democrats would bus black voters to the polls after church. Many blacks are voting by mail and with Covid, I'm not sure what the level of activity will be.
The "souls to the polls" was actually moved to today so it didn't have much of an impact and today also was the first day of EV for many red counties.

LeonardSkinner
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Voted in Clay County on Friday
bmks270
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Current data is not looking so rosy for Biden out of Florida. Data shows Republicans still have enough uncast votes to bring FL to 50-50.

According to the data on "supervoters"

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Democrats:
2016: 1,117,670
2020: 1,126,612
Ratio: 1.01 ('20/'16)
Delta: -8,942

Republicans:
2016: 1,256,547
2020: 911,391
Ratio: 0.73 ('20/'16)
Delta: 345,156

Supervoters are the most reliable voting block. This means Dem supervoters are about tapped out, and Republicans are still short of their 2016 number by 345,000 votes. The total Dem lead sits at 365,505. That lead is going to be wiped out by the Republican supervoter block, making the race about even. Then the race may come down the excess turnout that is expected compared to 2016.
Prosperdick
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AG
Prosperdick said:

Keegan99 said:

That's the cannibalization theory. It's possible but built into the models.

GOP wins on election day.

It's built into the models but don't forget, it cuts both ways. High D VBM and EV means even less on ED.
billydean05
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Florida is now officially safe Trump. Souls to the polls Sunday and republicans kept early vote tied today!
FbgTxAg
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AG
Agreed.

Florida will be Trump + 5
Texas will be Trump + 7
Michigan Trump + 4
IDaggie06
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FbgTxAg said:

Agreed.

Florida will be Trump + 5
Texas will be Trump + 7
Michigan Trump + 4

lol I wish.

At best it might be:

Florida +2
Texas +5
Michigan +1
black_ice
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IDaggie06 said:

FbgTxAg said:

Agreed.

Florida will be Trump + 5
Texas will be Trump + 7
Michigan Trump + 4

lol I wish.

At best it might be:

Florida +2
Texas +5
Michigan +1




LOL
bmks270
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AG
Texas will be Trump +10.
Keegan99
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I'll give you Biden +5% vs Trump in Texas as a betting line right now if you want it.

That is, if Trump wins by 5% or less, you win your bet. Interested?
aginlakeway
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Keegan99 said:

I'll give you Biden +5% vs Trump in Texas as a betting line right now if you want it.

That is, if Trump wins by 5% or less, you win your bet. Interested?

I want in on that action.

I'll also like to take Trump -5% in Texas
wessimo
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AG
As much as I think it is foolish to bet against you I'm intrigued by this proposition. Still taking action on it?
black_ice
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wessimo said:

As much as I think it is foolish to bet against you I'm intrigued by this proposition. Still taking action on it?


He is yes. You want in?
wessimo
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AG
Maybe. Are you his bookmaker?
black_ice
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wessimo said:

Maybe. Are you his bookmaker?



Lol no. We communicate outside of texags.
Keegan99
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AG
We do?
black_ice
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Keegan99 said:

We do?


Hola amigo

I told him you were still taking bets. I figure you'd want more action!
rgag12
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bmks270 said:

Texas will be Trump +10.


I agree, but look at this idiot:



Nate Silver is just a lib troll now, I'll be glad when his organization gets pantsed again.
wessimo
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AG
Sounds like y'all go wayyyy back. Did you also live in Hotard in '99?
proudaggie02
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IDaggie06 said:

FbgTxAg said:

Agreed.

Florida will be Trump + 5
Texas will be Trump + 7
Michigan Trump + 4

lol I wish.

At best it might be:

Florida +2
Texas +5
Michigan +1

Haha. I'd be very surprised if more than one of your predictions is accurate. Trump is going to lose 4% in Texas from 2016?
Prosperdick
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AG
aginlakeway
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Prosperdick said:



Biden may be done in Florida.

aggiehawg
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AG
That's a wowser! Less than a thousand in Palm Beach??
aggiehawg
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aginlakeway said:

Prosperdick said:



Biden may be done in Florida.


There's no "may" there. The only way Biden ever has a chance of winning the state is by seriously running up the score in Miami/Dade, Palm Beach and Broward counties..
 
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