Florida Early Voting

129,871 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 4 mo ago by Maacus
lunchbox
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AvidAggie said:

GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Per this post, it does include the Miami-Dade numbers that have been released, but not a handful of other counties (which all went to Trump, some close, in 2016).

aggiez03
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In Miami Dade...

Hilldawg had a 14% lead
DimentiaJoe has a 10% lead

Trump has a 4% advantage 2020 vs 2016 in Dade County which accounts for picking up 44,459 votes more than last time.
Gigemags382
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AvidAggie said:

GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?

It's only the Election Day votes in Dade that aren't counted in this. Early vote and VBM are counted. Election Day votes in Dade won't move the needle much.
aginresearch
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How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Marvin
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lunchbox said:

AvidAggie said:

GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Per this post, it does include the Miami-Dade numbers that have been released, but not a handful of other counties.



Those counties shown as not included all went for Trump by 15,000 votes total in 2016.
AgBQ-00
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Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
"The Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution was never designed to restrain the people. It was designed to restrain the government."
Gigemags382
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AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
MagnumLoad
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NPA's will decide this, and nobody knows how that will go. Dems will use exit polling to project a win, but those are unreliable
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
The Debt
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Gigemags382 said:

AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
Floridians are happy to vote for their own demographic. Dementia-Americans
bmks270
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AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.


Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.

Ignore the party support data that shows Trump has 95% approval among Republicans (higher than Obama, Bush or Clinton had). Also, the 5% aren't necessarily voting for Biden.

aginresearch
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We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.
The Debt
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bmks270 said:

AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.
10% of Dems poll they are voting for Trump.

This happens every election.
Marvin
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aginresearch said:

We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
akm91
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aginresearch said:

How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Keep in mind, in 2016 it was +300K for GCF.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Gigemags382
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bmks270 said:

AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.


Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.




Probably attempted to contact 10,000 R's. 100 of those R's were defecting to Biden and proud to tell the pollster. Only 1,000 total R's responded. Voila, 10% R defectors.
will25u
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If you are looking for Girl Scout Cookies, please support my daughter!

https://digitalcookie.girlscouts.org/scout/mazie600453
Prosperdick
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+148,444 just updated a minute ago. So almost at 150K.
UncleNateFitch
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akm91 said:

aginresearch said:

How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Keep in mind, in 2016 it was +300K for GCF.
aren't the early votes there factored in already? thought they just hadn't reported today's #s,
Don't underestimate Joe's ability to **** this up.
Prosperdick
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gotsand
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Marvin said:

aginresearch said:

We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
Gigemags382
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Prosperdick said:



That does indicate it being closer than 2016 though.
Gyles Marrett
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gotsand said:

Marvin said:

aginresearch said:

We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
The deep red panhandle counties are notorious for the after work surge.
Nitro Power
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Gigemags382 said:

AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
Trolls

FIFY
Keegan99
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AgOutsideAustin
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Thanks Florida, North Carolina and Georgia don't screw this up !
gotsand
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Gyles Marrett said:

gotsand said:

Marvin said:

aginresearch said:

We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
The deep red panhandle counties are notorious for the after work surge.
Yes, and they're deep, deep red.
Fightin_Aggie
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Rapier108 said:

Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
You know you're responding to a lib sock.
I only suspected, but now I know!

The more you know!
Keegan99
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Have to admit, after being the poster child for badly run elections two decades ago, Florida's operation might be the best in the country in terms of data and transparency. Would be nice if all states were like this.
Challenger 17
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Where are you getting your live numbers?
ThunderCougarFalconBird
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AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
it really is polling. Basically pollsters are using question stems that spit out the actual handful of people that are doing this and then extrapolating.
aginresearch
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Yup. It's bad in South Florida.
Mr President Elect
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Challenger 17 said:

Where are you getting your live numbers?
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
FriscoKid
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Pollster on Hannity just said that if Florida gets to +250k it's all over and you can call the state.
This claim about election fraud is helpful.
aginresearch
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joeisdone.github.io
Keegan99
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blindey said:

AgBQ-00 said:

Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
it really is polling. Basically pollsters are using question stems that spit out the actual handful of people that are doing this and then extrapolating.

 
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