Florida Early Voting

163,336 Views | 1283 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Maacus
lunchbox
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AvidAggie • 2:15p, 11/3/20
AvidAggie said:
GCP12 said:

I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Per this post, it does include the Miami-Dade numbers that have been released, but not a handful of other counties (which all went to Trump, some close, in 2016).

Reply Quote
1 edit
aggiez03
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:15p, 11/3/20
AG
In Miami Dade...

Hilldawg had a 14% lead
DimentiaJoe has a 10% lead

Trump has a 4% advantage 2020 vs 2016 in Dade County which accounts for picking up 44,459 votes more than last time.
Reply Quote
5
Gigemags382
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AvidAggie • 2:16p, 11/3/20
AG
AvidAggie said:
GCP12 said:

I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?

It's only the Election Day votes in Dade that aren't counted in this. Early vote and VBM are counted. Election Day votes in Dade won't move the needle much.
Reply Quote
11
aginresearch
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AvidAggie • 2:17p, 11/3/20
AG
How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Reply Quote
28
1 edit
Marvin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to lunchbox • 2:19p, 11/3/20
AG
lunchbox said:
AvidAggie said:
GCP12 said:

I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Per this post, it does include the Miami-Dade numbers that have been released, but not a handful of other counties.


Those counties shown as not included all went for Trump by 15,000 votes total in 2016.
Reply Quote
9
1 edit
AgBQ-00
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:20p, 11/3/20
AG
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
Reply Quote
9
Gigemags382
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:21p, 11/3/20
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
Reply Quote
6
MagnumLoad
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:22p, 11/3/20
NPA's will decide this, and nobody knows how that will go. Dems will use exit polling to project a win, but those are unreliable
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
Reply Quote
The Debt
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gigemags382 • 2:23p, 11/3/20
Gigemags382 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
Floridians are happy to vote for their own demographic. Dementia-Americans
Reply Quote
2
bmks270
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:23p, 11/3/20
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.


Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.

Ignore the party support data that shows Trump has 95% approval among Republicans (higher than Obama, Bush or Clinton had). Also, the 5% aren't necessarily voting for Biden.

Reply Quote
4
1 edit
aginresearch
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:23p, 11/3/20
AG
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.
Reply Quote
12
The Debt
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to bmks270 • 2:25p, 11/3/20
bmks270 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.
10% of Dems poll they are voting for Trump.

This happens every election.
Reply Quote
3
Marvin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aginresearch • 2:25p, 11/3/20
AG
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Reply Quote
3
akm91
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to aginresearch • 2:26p, 11/3/20
AG
aginresearch said:
How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Keep in mind, in 2016 it was +300K for GCF.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
Reply Quote
3
Gigemags382
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to bmks270 • 2:27p, 11/3/20
AG
bmks270 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.


Polls where 10% of the republicans polled say Biden.



Probably attempted to contact 10,000 R's. 100 of those R's were defecting to Biden and proud to tell the pollster. Only 1,000 total R's responded. Voila, 10% R defectors.
Reply Quote
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:27p, 11/3/20
Reply Quote
13
Prosperdick
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:27p, 11/3/20
AG
+148,444 just updated a minute ago. So almost at 150K.
Reply Quote
1
HelloUncleNateFitch
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to akm91 • 2:27p, 11/3/20
akm91 said:
aginresearch said:
How many times do we have to repeat: Miami-Dade is massively under performing for the Democrats. Numbers I'm seeing out of Miami-Dade net the Democrats +3k votes right now. Probably looking at +10k by the end of the evening from Miami-Dade. There's nothing there. It's tapped out.
Keep in mind, in 2016 it was +300K for GCF.
aren't the early votes there factored in already? thought they just hadn't reported today's #s,
Don't underestimate Joe's ability to **** this up.
Reply Quote
1
Prosperdick
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:28p, 11/3/20
AG
Reply Quote
6
FriskyGardenGnome
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Marvin • 2:29p, 11/3/20
AG
Marvin said:
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
Reply Quote
10
Gigemags382
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Prosperdick • 2:30p, 11/3/20
AG
Prosperdick said:

That does indicate it being closer than 2016 though.
Reply Quote
Gyles Marrett
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to FriskyGardenGnome • 2:30p, 11/3/20
gotsand said:
Marvin said:
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
The deep red panhandle counties are notorious for the after work surge.
Reply Quote
11
Nitro Power
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gigemags382 • 2:30p, 11/3/20
AG
Gigemags382 said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.

"Polls"
Trolls

FIFY
Reply Quote
2
Keegan99
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:32p, 11/3/20
AG
Reply Quote
2
AgOutsideAustin
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:35p, 11/3/20
AG
Thanks Florida, North Carolina and Georgia don't screw this up !
Reply Quote
14
FriskyGardenGnome
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Gyles Marrett • 2:37p, 11/3/20
AG
Gyles Marrett said:
gotsand said:
Marvin said:
aginresearch said:
We are now down to clutching at straws for those that don't want to acknowledge what is happening in Florida. Republicans and NPAs are not breaking in large numbers to Biden. You can sell me that NPAs will break around 2% or so to Biden, yeah I can buy that. Not 60/40 Biden.

Having said that I'd like to see a +200k vote advantage for Republicans by end of voting day. I think we get there as we only need another ~40k.

Should be a surge when the after-work crowd arrives.
Yep. I'm in Fl and will vote after work. (my n=1)
The deep red panhandle counties are notorious for the after work surge.
Yes, and they're deep, deep red.
Reply Quote
7
Fightin_Aggie
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Rapier108 • 2:43p, 11/3/20
AG
Rapier108 said:
Fightin_Aggie said:
AgBMF42 said:
Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
You know you're responding to a lib sock.
I only suspected, but now I know!

The more you know!
The world needs mean tweets

My Pronouns Ultra and MAGA

Trump 2024
Reply Quote
Keegan99
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:46p, 11/3/20
AG
Have to admit, after being the poster child for badly run elections two decades ago, Florida's operation might be the best in the country in terms of data and transparency. Would be nice if all states were like this.
Reply Quote
31
McKinney Ag69
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:48p, 11/3/20
AG
Where are you getting your live numbers?
Reply Quote
ThunderCougarFalconBird
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AgBQ-00 • 2:48p, 11/3/20
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
it really is polling. Basically pollsters are using question stems that spit out the actual handful of people that are doing this and then extrapolating.
Reply Quote
1
aginresearch
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to akm91 • 2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
Yup. It's bad in South Florida.
Reply Quote
Mr President Elect
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
Challenger 17 said:
Where are you getting your live numbers?
https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
Reply Quote
FriscoKid
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
Pollster on Hannity just said that if Florida gets to +250k it's all over and you can call the state.
Hillary paid for warrant to spy on Trump.
Reply Quote
4
aginresearch
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to McKinney Ag69 • 2:51p, 11/3/20
AG
joeisdone.github.io
Reply Quote
1 edit
Keegan99
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to ThunderCougarFalconBird • 2:52p, 11/3/20
AG
blindey said:
AgBQ-00 said:
Where does this idea the Rs are defecting in huge numbers come from? Have seen several unfamiliar users claiming this on a couple of different threads.
it really is polling. Basically pollsters are using question stems that spit out the actual handful of people that are doing this and then extrapolating.

Reply Quote
7
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.