Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.+ 7 more quotes (click to expand)Gyles Marrett said:LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.HoustonAggie37713 said:https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1318968491282608128
Yeah, he's pure science.
From the website: By Party Affiliation Archive - Data for 1972 - 2016+ 2 more quotes (click to expand)Prosperdick said:Of course it's assuming an R votes R and a D votes D, it's illegal to open the ballots before Election Day. As for the landscape change in Florida there have been almost 200,000 more Republicans registered to vote since 2016.
I suppose you could argue all those people who took the time to register Republican despise Trump and are only doing this as a cruel prank on Election Day.
Seriously though, if you look at the rallies in Florida as well as the polling of Hispanics/Cubans for Trump there's a VERY good chance there will be more registered Dems voting Trump (at least at the top of the ticket) than R's voting for Biden.Faustus said:Which still leaves almost 200k more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida as of August 31,2020.
https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/
There are a lot more Republican Super Voters left too, and Republicans tend to vote more on election day. I'd put this one in the bag for Republicans. However just because you haven't voted in the last four elections doesn't mean that you're not turning out for this one. Democrats have enough voters out there to win, it just doesn't look likely at this point.
He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.+ 8 more quotes (click to expand)HoustonAggie37713 said:
Yeah, he's pure science.Prosperdick said:Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.
What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?Gigemags382 said:
I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?
2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)
2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)
If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?
So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.
Giving mathematical commentary on how many ballots are needed to hit a number isn't what I would call commentary without backing. Wait a second, are you one of those folks that thinks math is racist?+ 9 more quotes (click to expand)Prosperdick said:Cherry picked as predicted. I bet there are 50 tweets in the last week that only give numbers but hey, providing things out of context is a leftist specialty. Sorry, concerned moderate.HoustonAggie37713 said:He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.
Florida breaks their voters down by party, so it is easy to get the numbers from the FL SOS website.Gigemags382 said:
I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?
2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)
2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)
If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?
So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.mavsfan4ever said:What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?
Quote:
Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.
TargetSmart (if they do their job well) likely builds a preference based on prior primary elections, social media content, and potentially even data from Amazon for purchases.Gigemags382 said:
I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?
2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)
2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)
If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?
So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.mavsfan4ever said:What is the Target Smart modeling based off of? Is it like the guy who keeps tweeting about the Florida numbers, meaning they are based on what party the voters are registered for?
They are publishing the amount of registered R-D-NPA/other voters that have voted in the last 4 elections (super-voters) to try to show voter cannibalism. Rs have many more super-voters left than D and you would expect them to vote.Cactus Jack said:
From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:Quote:
Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.
Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.
If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682
Gigemags382 said:
I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?
Gigemags382 said:
I only started tracking yesterday, but R's seem to close the gap about 60-80 votes per minute (~4000/hour) during business hours. When will early voting close in Florida? I assume VBM will still continue to be counted and reported continuously even after EV has closed?bmks270 said:
It closes at 7 PM in a lot of places.
2h 15m to go, the after work rush.
+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)bmks270 said:
It closes at 7 PM in a lot of places.
2h 15m to go, the after work rush.Gigemags382 said:
Ah so closed tomorrow and until Nov 3?
https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1321921371090419714
Need those to be held back in reserve!!SwigAg11 said:
Any idea why they haven't submitted today's results?
Nice Straw Man. How about him saying the black vote in NC will be 15% in NC in a tweet. I hope he's right, but he has 200 tweets in a row with nothing but 100% positive news for the GOP. He's a blatant homer.+ 10 more quotes (click to expand)HoustonAggie37713 said:He is giving commentary on tons of tweets. Throwing out assumptions with no backing. I follow him on twitter. I didn't cherry pick anything.Prosperdick said:Giving mathematical commentary on how many ballots are needed to hit a number isn't what I would call commentary without backing. Wait a second, are you one of those folks that thinks math is racist?
https://twitter.com/LarrySchweikart/status/1321940363393683456
Two things can be true at once: 1) He is a homer; 2) He is citing plain facts and the fact that he is a homer does not change math and statistics.+ 11 more quotes (click to expand)Prosperdick said:Giving mathematical commentary on how many ballots are needed to hit a number isn't what I would call commentary without backing. Wait a second, are you one of those folks that thinks math is racist?HoustonAggie37713 said:Nice Straw Man. How about him saying the black vote in NC will be 15% in NC in a tweet. I hope he's right, but he has 200 tweets in a row with nothing but 100% positive news for the GOP. He's a blatant homer.
Cactus Jack said:
From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:Quote:
Compared to earlier this month, fewer likely voters say they will cast ballots on Election Day and more are opting to cast ballots at early voting locations. Today, 17 percent say they are voting in person on Election Day, 38 percent say they either have voted or plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 43 percent say they have voted or will vote at an early voting location. This compares to an October 7th survey when 40 percent said they planned to vote on Election Day, 35 percent said they had voted or would vote by mail or absentee ballot, and 23 percent said they planned to cast a ballot at an early voting location.
Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.
If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682
Cactus Jack said:
From the latest Florida Quinnipiac poll:+ 1 more quotes (click to expand)
Trump significantly narrowed Biden's lead in this poll but still trails by about 3. To their credit, the pollsters say the race is likely too close to call given the margin of error.
If there is some accuracy to the idea that a lot of voters have decided to go ahead and vote early instead of waiting, the numbers being quoted in these Twitter threads may not pan out. It's possible there's some GOP cannibalism going on and the wave on election day may not be as significant. That being said, Democrat in person voting is also going to be suppressed.
https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3682HoustonAggie37713 said:
That certainly reads less favorable for Trump.
