FbgTxAg said:

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Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?

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Ends Sunday night

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?

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Ends Sunday night

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Wow. It's likely it may be even going into Tuesday.

That is really good news.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?

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Ends Sunday night

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They are having another "souls to the polls" event tomorrow which should help Dems but churchgoers are fairly consistent and I think they got the bulk of them last Sunday. There's no doubt it will help some but I'm VERY interested in Polk county, I'm not sure they released their results yet from yesterday.

Just an Ag said:

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This doesn't seem to be showing on the joeisdone site. Not updated there yet?

Gigemags382 said:

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Just an Ag said:

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This doesn't seem to be showing on the joeisdone site. Not updated there yet?

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Actually nothing seems to be updating on the joeisdone site. Looks like it's about an hour behind now. Anyone else seeing the same issue?

Gigemags382 said:

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Just an Ag said:

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This doesn't seem to be showing on the joeisdone site. Not updated there yet?

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It's only Polk county.

Prosperdick said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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Does Florida EV on Sunday and Monday?

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Ends Sunday night

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They are having another "souls to the polls" event tomorrow which should help Dems but churchgoers are fairly consistent and I think they got the bulk of them last Sunday. There's no doubt it will help some but I'm VERY interested in Polk county, I'm not sure they released their results yet from yesterday.

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This souls to the polls type crap might help them in Florida but the dems are going to have a heck of a time with any mass community voter push like this on Tuesday in states like Michigan, Minnesota , and Pennsylvania with all the lockdowns and fear of covid by the left.

SIAP. Newish numbers. Check Miami/Dade and Palm Beach counties.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

I don't think the numbers have updated since lunch

Oh wow... Duval flipped red

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Oh wow... Duval flipped red

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Is that bad?

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Oh wow... Duval flipped red

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Is that county historically Dem?

SwigAg11 said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Oh wow... Duval flipped red

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Is that county historically Dem?

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It was last election.

Florida numbers not moving as much today. Anything to be worried about?

haybob15 said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Oh wow... Duval flipped red

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Is that bad?

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2000 election. The counties having recounts were primarily in south Florida, Miami/Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. But Duval county was also having a recount and courts cases. Just wasn't numerically higher than those three counties so it got less attention.

Beerosch said:

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Florida numbers not moving as much today. Anything to be worried about?

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It's Halloween and Saturday

Beerosch said:

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Florida numbers not moving as much today. Anything to be worried about?

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Still have tomorrow for EV and then Tuesday for ED.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Oh wow... Duval flipped red

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duval -- jacksonville -- was red in 2016 -- like 49% vs 47%

OasisMan said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Oh wow... Duval flipped red

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duval -- jacksonville -- was red in 2016 -- like 49% vs 47%

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Republicans will outvote Dems 2 or 3 to 1 on Tuesday. I dunno how many votes that is, but you can count on It.

What does this mean with the mail-in votes?

OasisMan said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Oh wow... Duval flipped red

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duval -- jacksonville -- was red in 2016 -- like 49% vs 47%

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Quote:

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Fueled by a populist broadside from suburban and rural voters, Republican nominee Donald Trump edged out Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida, despite her strong showings in more urban areas like Jacksonville that have historically swayed statewide elections. His victory upends traditional assumptions about how to win elections in the Sunshine State.

In Jacksonville - Florida's most populous city and a right-leaning battleground - Clinton outperformed every Democratic presidential candidate since former President Jimmy Carter in 1976. She lost Duval County by about 6,000, according to unofficial and incomplete vote tallies.

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Quote:

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Trump dominated suburbs like Clay and St. Johns counties, a growing series of affluent neighborhoods outside Jacksonville. Strong performances in cities like Jacksonville, and in traditional Democratic strongholds in South Florida, were not enough to make up for what political observers said Tuesday were stunning margins in these more rural areas.

Trump's top three gains over Mitt Romney's results - in suburban Pasco, Pinellas and Volusia - were enough to vault him over Barack Obama's Florida margin in 2012.

Less than 1,000 more Republicans turned out to vote in Jacksonville than Democrats, and Clinton narrowly won the early vote. Viewed on its own, those results might have presaged a Democratic win in the state.

The conventional wisdom said drive up turnout in South Florida, and compete in Duval County. Keep the margins close with Republicans in the Northeast Florida city that's becoming increasing competitive. That was enough for Obama. Twice.

Not this time.

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LINK

Dem early vote lead down to 92k.

Florida is done. We can shut this thread down.

EKUAg said:

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Dem early vote lead down to 92k.

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Where do you all get your info from? The target early site is showing republicans have taken the lead by 20k.

IDaggie06 said:

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EKUAg said:

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Dem early vote lead down to 92k.

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Where do you all get your info from? The target early site is showing republicans have taken the lead by 20k.

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That's inferred. This is Florida SOS registered voters. Tons of D voters in S Florida crossing over.

Yep. Just using vasic affiliation of voters.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

Numbers looking better for Dems today. Could be very, very close.

Cheetah01 said:

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Numbers looking better for Dems today. Could be very, very close.

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Not hoping for that, I'm just looking at the numbers. Dems have a very slight advantage when you NPA super voters To their current lead.

My bad. I got this wrong. Trump has a huge NPA super voter advantage. I was looking at it wrong. Whewfeel much better!

Do we have any guess how NPA voters are breaking?

Based on TargetSmart Race + Education data, almost every demographic except African-American (a known concern for Dems) are close to or have exceeded the 2016 final election numbers in FL. Except for Caucasian - Non-College which is a full 1.4 million behind the 2016 final election turnout for this demographic. 4.6m in 2016 vs 3.2m so far in 2020. Whereas Caucasian - College was 2.1m in 2016 and has already reached 2.1m in 2020.

I'm seeing similar type turnout in almost every state. Caucasian Non-College is Trump's bread and butter. Is the turnout from this demographic supposed to be absolutely massive on Election Day? The other demographics have mostly already met their 2016 turnout. They're obviously going to be more than 0 on Election Day and VBM that continues to be counted. It seems like there's a massive gap to be made up by Caucasian Non-College to not only meet 2016 turnout but exceed it like others.

I know Trump is supposed to have huge gains on Election Day, but it doesn't seem possible that only this one demographic is left to vote. Is Election Day turnout going to be almost exclusively Caucasian - Non-College or is this demographic's turnout this election going to be down relative to other demographics?

The bright side of things is that the Republican/Democrat splits in Florida and many other states are looking mostly good despite having a huge deficit in Caucasian Non-College turnout up to this point. So maybe a ton of upside there?