Pumpkinhead said:

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A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.

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2016 exit poll showed the NPA broke for Trump by 4%. Can't imagine Trump doing much worse than that in the current climate.

aggiehawg said:

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Ewok It Out08 said:

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Miami-Dade not reporting is significant correct or was it a wash in 2016 in regards to election day voting split? So even if we do not know there numbers, it is not likely to increase the tally of the Dem side?

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Point being, even if the Dem votes increase today, it's not enough to dig out of the hole state wide. Hillary won Miami/Dade in 2016 by 30% and still lost the state. That 30% was hundreds of thousands of votes in 2016. Biden hasn't banked enough Dem votes during early voting to withstand a Trump election day surge.

Meaning if things fall right, Miami/Dade comes very close to turning red.

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Broward and Miami-Dade netted GCF 300K votes each (+36% and +30% respectively) and she still lost the election. Each point in Miami-Dade is approximately 10K votes.

Miami Dade and sometimes Boward do not release their voting numbers until later in the day, think it is because they hand count them but someone on here can correct me.

With most of the past elections these two counties are very heavy blue, this year the democrats are off by 30 points versus what they did in 2016. Since Florida does not release the real time votes they do release the real time how many for what party voted. Typically over 90% of people vote for their party line but most people also do not change their party they register for. There seems to be a big increase in minorities for Trump, especially the Cubans not wanting socialism, so they are predicting a large increase in registered democrat minorities voting for Trump.

From what I could find there were over 200,000 more registered democrats in Miami Dade and the majority of the democrats already voted early. So if it is close right now you have a county that had a 30 point swing which is almost unheard of. Democrats are not voting enough to offset the amount of republicans voting in blue counties so far in Florida.

At this point whatever lead in the blue counties will be washed out by the panhandle, with the republican lead growing anywhere from 5,000-20,000 per hour it does appear this will be a close race .

Right now we are assuming independent are split around 50/50.

Pumpkinhead said:

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there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

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Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?

akm91 said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.

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2016 exit poll showed the NPA broke for Trump by 4%. Can't imagine Trump doing much worse than that in the current climate.

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If anything I think it would be higher with the minority vote for Trump

texaglurkerguy said:

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I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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747Ag said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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A key in Florida, once the vote counts actually start coming in as the polls close, will be the early voters who voted with No Party Affialiation.

While you can see how many registered Dems and registered Republicans early voted, there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party. They are a significant 'Black Box' in the early voting counts that you won't know for sure how that independents group swung until the results are actually known.

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Moreover, we don't know how many crossover votes have been cast.

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It's gonna vary state to state, but in Florida, the D crossover is going to be much larger due to South Florida Latinos

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Agreed. I am in Central FL, and the same vibe is prevalent with my Latino friends.

akm91 said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Ewok It Out08 said:

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Miami-Dade not reporting is significant correct or was it a wash in 2016 in regards to election day voting split? So even if we do not know there numbers, it is not likely to increase the tally of the Dem side?

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Point being, even if the Dem votes increase today, it's not enough to dig out of the hole state wide. Hillary won Miami/Dade in 2016 by 30% and still lost the state. That 30% was hundreds of thousands of votes in 2016. Biden hasn't banked enough Dem votes during early voting to withstand a Trump election day surge.

Meaning if things fall right, Miami/Dade comes very close to turning red.

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Broward and Miami-Dade netted GCF 300K votes each (+36% and +30% respectively) and she still lost the election. Each point in Miami-Dade is approximately 10K votes.

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Thank you for the correction. I lumped Broward and Miami/Dade together but failed to type in Broward too.

This just in: 7 billion voters not registered to either party voted by mail in Alabama. Flipping blue for sure!!!

FbgTxAg said:

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And this one.

What a jerk!.

Who's Nate silver

proc said:

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I still think the most telling statistic is that the advertising money, campaign managers and rallies were pulled from Florida over a week ago.

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According to the dems, that was a sign that Trump knew he was going to lose Florida

45-70Ag said:

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Who's Nate silver

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A dude that will be out of a job if Trump wins today.

FriscoKid said:

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texaglurkerguy said:

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I'm gonna go against the grain here and predict that all this EV analysis in FL is smoke and mirrors (and grifting from Larry Schweikart). Biden will net more cross-party and independents than Trump and win a narrow one.

I have nothing to back up this prediction and expect some cry laugh emoji responses. We'll know pretty early on Nov 3 whether I have to eat crow!

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I wonder if he's still lurking?

Bob Knights Liver said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

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Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?

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https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/florida-vote-count-already-close-matching-2016-total/6084052002/

Quote:

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Monday's totals from the state's Division of Elections show that through mail-in and early voting, 3.5 million registered Democrats have cast ballots compared with 3.4 million Republicans. Another 2.1 million no-party and third-party affiliated voters also have voted.

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Florida is a blood bath

Good Poster said:

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Florida is a blood bath

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116,442 as of last count. That's a 228K swing since last night.

HarryJ33tamu said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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This dude is such a p***y

He sees the writing on the wall

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Translate that as "I can't think of anything positive to point out for the democrats in what I am seeing, so I am going to do something mindless to avoid starting to cry this early in the day..."

Pumpkinhead said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

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Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?

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https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/florida-vote-count-already-close-matching-2016-total/6084052002/

Quote:

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Monday's totals from the state's Division of Elections show that through mail-in and early voting, 3.5 million registered Democrats have cast ballots compared with 3.4 million Republicans. Another 2.1 million no-party and third-party affiliated voters also have voted.

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poor poor pumpkin

FbgTxAg said:

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Good job aggregating your garbage polls, Nate

How's that crow taste, Nate?

So, Silver is hoping the independents break for Biden. Not likely Nate unless they like violence in the streets and economic shutdowns. This is Florida, Nate. They saw first hand what good Republican leadership looks like with their governor.