Florida Early Voting

130,317 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Maacus
Tylerjo97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
FbgTxAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't need a model.


The greatest argument ever made against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter.
JAG03
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
Bretton Gekko
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Let the tears begin.
Fightin_Aggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
Nitro Power
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
Wishful thinking
Magic City Wings
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?


Even the Trump ahead polls have Biden ahead in the NPA.


The top split on NPA is from NYT, the bottom is from the Insider Advantage poll.

Rapier108
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
You know you're responding to a lib sock.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I know I'll regret this but: What is the split on NPA's you are using?
e=mc2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AgBMF42 said:

Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?


Even the Trump ahead polls have Biden ahead in the NPA.


Trump is going to win this state by 5+. You might need to start medicating now.
AgBQ-00
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Rapier108 said:

Fightin_Aggie said:

AgBMF42 said:

Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
I don't follow at all? The NPA are breaking hard for Biden based on what?
You know you're responding to a lib sock.
Not only that but citing "Polls"
"The Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution was never designed to restrain the people. It was designed to restrain the government."
Gigemags382
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
JAG03 said:

Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?

It's just their Election Day votes that are not reported yet. All the early vote and VBM are accounted for in the R+133k number. Miami-Dade's Election Day gap between R and D should be pretty minimal.
e=mc2
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
aginresearch said:

I know I'll regret this but: What is the split on NPA's you are using?


Using the same faulty polls that Silver is using. Hilarious!!
P.U.T.U
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
JAG03 said:

Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
Not with the current released number, Dems lead Miami Dade in early and current voting by about 105k.
lunchbox
How long do you want to ignore this user?
JAG03 said:

Which blue counties are being slow to report? Is it fair to assume we should a a lead of 300k to account for Miami-Dade not reporting yet?
In Miami-Dade, the 2020 GOP vote has already surpassed the 2016 Trump vote by about 5,000.

The 2020 Dem vote is about 180K behind the 2016 Clinton vote.

This is from the joeisdone site and I'm not 100% sure if he has split the NDA votes into the county numbers or not.

But to answer your question, yes, I would love to see the lead for election day only hit 300K+
aggiez03
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
aggiez03
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Up to +138,111 R now
Ukraine Gas Expert
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I pray this man is correct! Tears will be delicious
agsalaska
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
FriscoKid said:

Squadron7 said:

FbgTxAg said:



Am i wrong to read this as good news for Team Red?
So Republicans are creating massive fraud in Florida? Didn't he say that was the only possible way that Trump could win???


No. He said it woukd have to be a massive polling error and then in parenthesis put a comment about voter fraud.

Funny thing is most of us agree with him. We think there is massive polling errors.
GCP12
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
bmks270
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Republicans now leading in ballots cast in Pinellas county (St Petersburg). This is a county that went for Obama in 2012, and Trump in 2016. This is a good sign.
Challenger 17
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Reps need to create a much bigger margin. Dade county is not even included yet in this.
lunchbox
How long do you want to ignore this user?
GCP12 said:


Using those numbers, Biden would need to split the NPAs at 56.5/43.5 in order to catch Trump.

Using the previous hour's numbers, it was closer to 56/44...
captkirk
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
"In Texas, the GOP would love to claim I am an unfit parent and take my children...You do know that legislation around this EXACT issue was presented in the last legislative session." - ArcticPenguin
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Miami-Dade is way under performing for the Democrats. It will not help them in anyway. In other words Trump is over performing in Miami-Dade. Same for Broward and Palm Beach.
Orlando Ayala Cant Read
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
bmks270
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
gotsand said:

County submitted totals.

From where? Is it public somewhere?
aginresearch
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
By whose estimate? I think they get 225k though. Just barely.
Keegan99
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.


Based on what? The margin in 2016 was ~115k.
LostInLA07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.


Is that because of projections on number of unaffiliated voters choosing Biden?
AvidAggie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
Line Ate Member
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AvidAggie said:

GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?
also not counting the majority of the panhandle. Which you would assume is roughly a wash.
rgag12
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Keegan99 said:

Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.


Based on what? The margin in 2016 was ~115k.


Lib wishful thinking most likely
Prosperdick
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Orlando Ayala Cant Read said:

Republicans need to be up at least 225k and even potentially as much as 300k by some estimates (although that seems extreme to me) by the time polling closes in order to win. Don't think Trump should count this as a win just yet.
Historically Florida grows more red as the day goes on, especially with the panhandle counties open an extra hour later (in CST instead of EST).
EKUAg
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
AvidAggie said:

GCP12 said:



I may be reading this wrong but isn't this not so great news for Trump considering Dade isn't counted in this?


They were not on the previous tweet. They are part of the latest count from what I can see. Dems up 101k ther, but down 148k statewide.
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.