Florida Early Voting

130,282 Views | 1284 Replies | Last: 5 mo ago by Maacus
captkirk
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agsquirrel97 said:

FbgTxAg said:


go into hiding, troll

The Trump years have not been kind to pajama boy
"In Texas, the GOP would love to claim I am an unfit parent and take my children...You do know that legislation around this EXACT issue was presented in the last legislative session." - ArcticPenguin
Nitro Power
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rgag12 said:

FbgTxAg said:




Good job aggregating your garbage polls, Nate

How's that crow taste, Nate?
I would prefer him to eat **** instead
captkirk
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AlexNguyen said:

So, Silver is hoping the independents break for Biden. Not likely Nate unless they like violence in the streets and economic shutdowns. This is Florida, Nate. They saw first hand what good Republican leadership looks like with their governor.


He's following the chart someone posted here earlier perfectly
"In Texas, the GOP would love to claim I am an unfit parent and take my children...You do know that legislation around this EXACT issue was presented in the last legislative session." - ArcticPenguin
FriscoKid
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Squadron7 said:

FbgTxAg said:



Am i wrong to read this as good news for Team Red?
So Republicans are creating massive fraud in Florida? Didn't he say that was the only possible way that Trump could win???
If masks work then why didn't they?
Line Ate Member
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AlexNguyen said:

So, Silver is hoping the independents break for Biden. Not likely Nate unless they like violence in the streets and economic shutdowns. This is Florida, Nate. They saw first hand what good Republican leadership looks like with their governor.


so literally at the "Independents will break for Biden" phase for him. Poor little guy.
fooz
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nortex97
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HarryJ33tamu said:

FbgTxAg said:


This dude is such a p***y

He sees the writing on the wall
LOL when your escape from your professional failure is to go play FIFA on some console, in your mid 40's. Just...pathetic.
DTP02
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Squadron7 said:

FbgTxAg said:



Am i wrong to read this as good news for Team Red?


It means he can see the same stuff we're all seeing in FL that points to a comfortable Trump win, but instead of doing what an unbiased statistician would do and use that data to inform and adjust his analysis, he's going to bury his head in the sand instead.
akm91
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D's are underperforming in Orange and Osceola counties in addition to Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade. This is going to be an epic beat down in FL.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
aginresearch
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Newsflash Nate that ain't happening. It probably happened with the mail in ballots but not in IPEV and certainly not today.
aggiehawg
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Quote:

On the Day of the Dead on Sunday, the lively sights and sounds of the 2020 election were hard to escape in several corners of Miami-Dade County on the last day of early voting.

But by Sunday night, the county's Elections Department reported weak turnout for the day compared to 2016's final "Souls to the Polls" Sunday ahead of Election Day. About 35,800 votes were cast on Sunday, compared to 53,098 on the same Sunday in 2016 a decline of 33%.

Still, Miami-Dade Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans Sunday on the early-voting score after dominating a less busy "Souls to the Polls" day of final early voting.
Quote:

Four years ago, Dems had a lead of 115,000 votes after early voting ended. (That is, 115,000 more Democrats than Republicans had voted. We don't know whom they voted for.) This year, with two extra days of mail-in voting, they have a lead of 99,000.
Quote:

Here's where I get to be a contrarian towards my own instincts, though, and argue myself into thinking Biden still has a shot. First, although Republican turnout in Miami-Dade has been higher than Democrat turnout (as a percentage), Dems are outperforming the GOP in some other counties:
Quote:

Broward: The most Democratic-blue county in Florida has put up a significant advantage in votes cast so far.

A total of 69.2% of the county's registered Democrats have already voted compared to 66.3% of Republicans.

By the numbers, that's 438,464 Democratic and 178,617 Republican votes. Without that 259,847 Democratic advantage from Broward, Republicans would be notably ahead in Florida.
Broward has sometimes been a laggard in turnout, causing lots of gnashing of teeth among Democratic activists. So far, the opposite is true for 2020. Democratic turnout in Broward is 2.9 percentage points higher than the statewide Democratic turnout.
Second, some polls show Biden winning more Republicans than Trump is winning Democrats, and some of them see him winning *big* among independents. Quinnipiac (which has a bad record in Florida, please do note) has Sleepy Joe taking seven percent of R's versus Trump taking three percent of D's. They also have him up by 16 among indies.
Not buying that for a moment.

VIA Hot Air
Prosperdick
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Prosperdick said:

Good Poster said:

Florida is a blood bath
116,442 as of last count. That's a 228K swing since last night.
121,706...over 5,000 in half an hour.
aginresearch
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Are there actually people suggesting that NPAs will break overwhelmingly to Biden when a massive red wave is cresting in Florida today that swamped the VBM numbers? So much so that registered republicans have more than doubled their advantage in votes cast compared to 2016 and we're not even done yet? NPAs will probably, as they have in other elections, behave like the voters around them. A slight deviation here or there but generally in line with the other voters in their vicinity.
Nitro Power
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Like every other topic of importance, they have their heads in the sands and/or are clueless about everything
Keegan99
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aginresearch said:

Are there actually people suggesting that NPAs will break overwhelmingly to Biden when a massive red wave is cresting in Florida today that swamped the VBM numbers? So much so that registered republicans have more than doubled their advantage in votes cast compared to 2016 and we're not even done yet? NPAs will probably, as they have in other elections, behave like the voters around them. A slight deviation here or there but generally in line with the other voters in their vicinity.


Bingo. The NPAs tend to mirror the composition of their geographic area and their voting method.
JobSecurity
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R up 127003 as of 2:02pm
aginresearch
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For some reason people are trying to convince themselves what they see happening is not happening. Also those numbers on Broward county don't seem right. Right now Trump is ahead of his 2016 pace in Broward! That's not helping the Democrats. Same thing in Palm Beach. This is a disaster in South Florida for the Democrats.
Nitro Power
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JobSecurity said:

R up 127003 as of 2:02pm
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?
AlexNguyen
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aginresearch said:

For some reason people are trying to convince themselves what they see happening is not happening. Also those numbers on Broward county don't seem right. Right now Trump is ahead of his 2016 pace in Broward! That's not helping the Democrats. Same thing in Palm Beach. This is a disaster in South Florida for the Democrats.
Voter suppression, right, marxists?
Pumpkinhead
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HarryJ33tamu said:

Pumpkinhead said:

Bob Knights Liver said:

Pumpkinhead said:

there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/florida-vote-count-already-close-matching-2016-total/6084052002/

Quote:


Monday's totals from the state's Division of Elections show that through mail-in and early voting, 3.5 million registered Democrats have cast ballots compared with 3.4 million Republicans. Another 2.1 million no-party and third-party affiliated voters also have voted.

poor poor pumpkin


Why 'poor' me? I was just posting the reported number early NPA's. Just passing along a number.
AgBQ-00
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Nitro Power said:

JobSecurity said:

R up 127003 as of 2:02pm
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?
It is based off of registration of voter. Not actual vote count.
"The Declaration of Independence and the US Constitution was never designed to restrain the people. It was designed to restrain the government."
Keegan99
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These are voters by party registration.

Not actual votes. Not polls. Not a model.
akm91
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Nitro Power said:

JobSecurity said:

R up 127003 as of 2:02pm
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?
Just votes by party affiliation not who they actually voted for. There will be cross overs but I would imagine in FL that would be better for R's. It also doesn't account for NPA's but those are most likely even split or slight advantage to R's.

2016 NPA's were +4 for Trump based on exit polls.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
AlexNguyen
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Nitro Power said:

JobSecurity said:

R up 127003 as of 2:02pm
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?
It's just votes received from people who are registered as R or D or unaffiliated. The presumption is that people will vote true to form. Maybe 5% crossover from one side to the other would be the highest it is thought. The unaffiliated voters are the wild card. I don't think they break to Biden by a huge margin like Silver and company are clearly hoping for at this point.
bmks270
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What is the source of the Joe is done data?
Nitro Power
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Thanks to all
akm91
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2016 the cross over votes were even @ 8% each party, based on exit polls.
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
gotsand
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County submitted totals.
Prosperdick
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AlexNguyen said:

Nitro Power said:

JobSecurity said:

R up 127003 as of 2:02pm
Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?
It's just votes received from people who are registered as R or D or unaffiliated. The presumption is that people will vote true to form. Maybe 5% crossover from one side to the other would be the highest it is thought. The unaffiliated voters are the wild card. I don't think they break to Biden by a huge margin like Silver and company are clearly hoping for at this point.
If Nate was honest he would go back through his polling data and show evidence of HUGE unaffiliated voters breaking for Biden in their polls, because that's what it will take to overcome the deficit that's building every 20 minutes.

If he can't reasonably show a tremendous break in unaffiliated to Dems in past polling he should be up front and inform the public he missed on this state. We know he won't though...
G Martin 87
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Nate should have just stopped here:
Quote:

The one thing I'll say is that there's just not really that much you can tell without knowing who people voted for.
So your entire career has been based on lies, Nate? ROFL.
aggiez03
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+133,111 Rs to Ds as of 1:25 CST
Gigemags382
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Hanging around 6k per 20 min for the last 2-3 hours. Hopefully it'll pick back up to over 10k per 20 min moving into the end of the day.
Magic City Wings
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Florida update*

Republicans: 3,902,530 (38.9%)
Democrat: 3,779,989 (37.7%)
NPA: 2,324,888 (23.2%)

Rep+122,541

(*Not including six counties, including Miami-Dade)


Using this data and insider advantage party breakdown I have Biden ahead here 48.6% to 48.4%.

Using NYT Upshot Biden up 48.2% to 45.1%

It's gonna be close, anyone know what counties besides Miami aren't there?

Anyone better with excel wanna model this?
astros4545
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Keegan99
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