agsquirrel97 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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go into hiding, troll

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AlexNguyen said:

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So, Silver is hoping the independents break for Biden. Not likely Nate unless they like violence in the streets and economic shutdowns. This is Florida, Nate. They saw first hand what good Republican leadership looks like with their governor.

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Squadron7 said:

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FbgTxAg said:

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Am i wrong to read this as good news for Team Red?

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AlexNguyen said:

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So, Silver is hoping the independents break for Biden. Not likely Nate unless they like violence in the streets and economic shutdowns. This is Florida, Nate. They saw first hand what good Republican leadership looks like with their governor.

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On the Day of the Dead on Sunday, the lively sights and sounds of the 2020 election were hard to escape in several corners of Miami-Dade County on the last day of early voting.

But by Sunday night, the county's Elections Department reported weak turnout for the day compared to 2016's final "Souls to the Polls" Sunday ahead of Election Day. About 35,800 votes were cast on Sunday, compared to 53,098 on the same Sunday in 2016 a decline of 33%.

Still, Miami-Dade Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans Sunday on the early-voting score after dominating a less busy "Souls to the Polls" day of final early voting.

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Four years ago, Dems had a lead of 115,000 votes after early voting ended. (That is, 115,000 more Democrats than Republicans had voted. We don't know whom they voted for.) This year, with two extra days of mail-in voting, they have a lead of 99,000.

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Here's where I get to be a contrarian towards my own instincts, though, and argue myself into thinking Biden still has a shot. First, although Republican turnout in Miami-Dade has been higher than Democrat turnout (as a percentage), Dems are outperforming the GOP in some other counties:

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Broward: The most Democratic-blue county in Florida has put up a significant advantage in votes cast so far.

A total of 69.2% of the county's registered Democrats have already voted compared to 66.3% of Republicans.

By the numbers, that's 438,464 Democratic and 178,617 Republican votes. Without that 259,847 Democratic advantage from Broward, Republicans would be notably ahead in Florida.
Broward has sometimes been a laggard in turnout, causing lots of gnashing of teeth among Democratic activists. So far, the opposite is true for 2020. Democratic turnout in Broward is 2.9 percentage points higher than the statewide Democratic turnout.

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Second, some polls show Biden winning more Republicans than Trump is winning Democrats, and some of them see him winning *big* among independents. Quinnipiac (which has a bad record in Florida, please do note) has Sleepy Joe taking seven percent of R's versus Trump taking three percent of D's. They also have him up by 16 among indies.

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Prosperdick said:

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Good Poster said:

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Florida is a blood bath

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116,442 as of last count. That's a 228K swing since last night.

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aginresearch said:

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Are there actually people suggesting that NPAs will break overwhelmingly to Biden when a massive red wave is cresting in Florida today that swamped the VBM numbers? So much so that registered republicans have more than doubled their advantage in votes cast compared to 2016 and we're not even done yet? NPAs will probably, as they have in other elections, behave like the voters around them. A slight deviation here or there but generally in line with the other voters in their vicinity.

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JobSecurity said:

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R up 127003 as of 2:02pm

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aginresearch said:

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For some reason people are trying to convince themselves what they see happening is not happening. Also those numbers on Broward county don't seem right. Right now Trump is ahead of his 2016 pace in Broward! That's not helping the Democrats. Same thing in Palm Beach. This is a disaster in South Florida for the Democrats.

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HarryJ33tamu said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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Bob Knights Liver said:

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Pumpkinhead said:

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there were nearly 2,000,000 people who early voted but were not registered to either party.

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Where did you get that number? It seems high. There are only 3.8 million eligible voters in Florida not registered to either party. Typically 60% or less of registered voters actually vote, with those not registered to a party voting at a lower clip. You number suggests that 60% of these people already voted by mail?

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https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/02/florida-vote-count-already-close-matching-2016-total/6084052002/

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Monday's totals from the state's Division of Elections show that through mail-in and early voting, 3.5 million registered Democrats have cast ballots compared with 3.4 million Republicans. Another 2.1 million no-party and third-party affiliated voters also have voted.

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poor poor pumpkin

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Nitro Power said:

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JobSecurity said:

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R up 127003 as of 2:02pm

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Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?

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Nitro Power said:

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JobSecurity said:

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R up 127003 as of 2:02pm

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Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?

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Nitro Power said:

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JobSecurity said:

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R up 127003 as of 2:02pm

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Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?

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AlexNguyen said:

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Nitro Power said:

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JobSecurity said:

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R up 127003 as of 2:02pm

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Forgive my ignorance on the subject, but that is actual votes, not some sort of model producing said results?

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It's just votes received from people who are registered as R or D or unaffiliated. The presumption is that people will vote true to form. Maybe 5% crossover from one side to the other would be the highest it is thought. The unaffiliated voters are the wild card. I don't think they break to Biden by a huge margin like Silver and company are clearly hoping for at this point.

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The one thing I'll say is that there's just not really that much you can tell without knowing who people voted for.

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