***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

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Ramdiesel
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In reply to MagnumLoad • 12:17p
MagnumLoad said:
bonfarr said:


What do yall think is going on here? Air drop of arms for the Kurds?

What will the IRGC send to engage the Kurdish fighters? Will they send armor that we destroy quickly?


If the irgc mass men and armor, they will be destroyed quickly. The hanger ons will conduct gorilla warfare. Arming the Iranian people is the way that must be defeated imo.


That's going to be the tough part, after the bulk of the US and Israeli naval and air forces leave, the Iranians/ forces on the ground will have to deal with the remnants of IRGC running around commiting terrorist acts, bombing buildings/ sniping from rooftops, etc... Then the US and Israel will be getting the blame in the media for not sending their own groundtroops in if Iranians and others can't quickly deal with the terrorist problems.
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The Fall Guy
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12:19p
AG
So Lebanon asked Macron to ask Israel to not Bomb them and Frances response is to send Armored Vehicles?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/france-to-send-armored-vehicles-to-lebanon-macron-says/
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Gladiator 96
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In reply to will25u • 12:32p
AG
Getting in late on this conversation, but I was a Submarine Officer on the USS Albuquerque from 1998 - 2001. This is correct and is not obvious to most people.

World War II tactics were more of the geometry based tactics, but modern tactics are sonar-based.
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LMCane
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In reply to Aggie-Clausewitz • 12:55p
Aggie-Clausewitz said:

honestly I think Mossad and Aman know the whereabouts of the IRGC leaders-

more than other members of the IRGC know where they are
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LMCane
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In reply to The Fall Guy • 12:56p
The Fall Guy said:
So Lebanon asked Macron to ask Israel to not Bomb them and Frances response is to send Armored Vehicles?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/france-to-send-armored-vehicles-to-lebanon-macron-says/

well Israel has issued nice directions for the civilians to move out of the way

name one other army in the history of warfare that tells civilians where to go before getting bombed.
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carl spacklers hat
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In reply to bonfarr • 1:00p
bonfarr said:


What do yall think is going on here? Air drop of arms for the Kurds?

What will the IRGC send to engage the Kurdish fighters? Will they send armor that we destroy quickly?

The problem with this tweet is that its too short to show a landing and aircraft is too far away to determine what they are doing other than flying low. We don't even know where this was filmed. Pure speculation to say those are SpecOps aircraft and if they did land, show that, ffs. I have no idea what is going on in that video - for all we know it is old footage. IF it is legit and IF those planes landed, my best guess is they are dropping supplies for insurgents.
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
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Queso1
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1:01p
AG
Can someone explain to me why a hypersonic missile hitting a target is worse than a standard ballistic missile or even a "dumb" bomb? I mean, if an explosive ordinance hits, does it matter how fast it traveled to its target.

I ask because I've heard that is a big fear.
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to Queso1 • 1:03p
AG
the hysteria of hyper-sonics is about the ability to shoot them down. has nothing to do with the amount of damage but rather the increased chances of them getting through
God loves you so much He'll meet you where you are. He also loves you too much to allow to stay where you are.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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Queso1
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 1:05p
AG
That makes perfect sense. However, the media has been acting like it would be an escalation and I couldn't figure why.
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to Queso1 • 1:06p
AG
because they are morons. see the every gun ever is an AR or AK meme for reference

ETA: the "escalation" would be Iran using newer tech. But there is some speculation that the performance of their "hypersonics" is nothing more than normal typical ballistic speeds achieved on terminal phase. (source on that is Habitual Linecrosser on YouTube. He is a recently retired Air Defense Artillery (patriot system) guy)
God loves you so much He'll meet you where you are. He also loves you too much to allow to stay where you are.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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MagnumLoad
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In reply to Ramdiesel • 1:07p
Ramdiesel said:
MagnumLoad said:
bonfarr said:


What do yall think is going on here? Air drop of arms for the Kurds?

What will the IRGC send to engage the Kurdish fighters? Will they send armor that we destroy quickly?


If the irgc mass men and armor, they will be destroyed quickly. The hanger ons will conduct gorilla warfare. Arming the Iranian people is the way that must be defeated imo.


That's going to be the tough part, after the bulk of the US and Israeli naval and air forces leave, the Iranians/ forces on the ground will have to deal with the remnants of IRGC running around commiting terrorist acts, bombing buildings/ sniping from rooftops, etc... Then the US and Israel will be getting the blame in the media for not sending their own groundtroops in if Iranians and others can't quickly deal with the terrorist problems.


If provided the means, I think the Iranian people will deal with them swiftly, and it won't be pretty.
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AgsMnn
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1:10p
AG
Who is running Iran and making the calls on where to hit?
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Queso1
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In reply to MagnumLoad • 1:10p
AG
Which of the 92 million are those? Did all the Islamists that supported this regime just disappear?
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Severian the Torturer
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1:12p
Abu Dhabi is getting pounded right now, with multiple drones hitting Yas Island, the extremely high end suburban area where expats live.

I think the USA is going to find itself without allies very soon. I'm a very very minor liason for US trade in the Emirates, but I know some pretty big businessmen and you will start hearing rumblings from some of the non-royal industry leaders about bargaining with Iran to stop the strikes.
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JP_Losman
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In reply to Severian the Torturer • 1:16p
AG
What a bunch of woosies!!!
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AgBQ-00
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In reply to Severian the Torturer • 1:19p
AG
I would think having a pre-revolution Iran would lead to a much better business environment in the ME. Surely they can see that is a good thing. Perhaps the Abraham Accords have made them more receptive to weather some pain to get to more stability. Hope that is the case
God loves you so much He'll meet you where you are. He also loves you too much to allow to stay where you are.

We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
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JP_Losman
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1:21p
AG
Everyone on this planet wants that regime toasted
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Tailgate88
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In reply to Severian the Torturer • 1:23p
AG
Severian the Torturer said:
Abu Dhabi is getting pounded right now, with multiple drones hitting Yas Island, the extremely high end suburban area where expats live.

I think the USA is going to find itself without allies very soon. I'm a very very minor liason for US trade in the Emirates, but I know some pretty big businessmen and you will start hearing rumblings from some of the non-royal industry leaders about bargaining with Iran to stop the strikes.

Who are they going to call? There is no organized government of "Iran" at the moment, just a bunch of dead Mullah's and a few waiting to get blown up. As I understand it these incoming missiles and drones are from isolated units that are just trying to Leroy Jenkins their way to heaven and their awaiting 72 virgins. I don't think they're answering the phone from businessmen in Abu Dhabi at the moment.
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Silent For Too Long
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 1:24p
AgBQ-00 said:
I would think having a pre-revolution Iran would lead to a much better business environment in the ME. Surely they can see that is a good thing. Perhaps the Abraham Accords have made them more receptive to weather some pain to get to more stability. Hope that is the case


Yeah I think its more likely this strengthens area resolve. They are screaming to the world they are in no place to be in charge a fireworks stand much less a nuclear arsenal.
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halfastros81
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In reply to Severian the Torturer • 1:24p
AG
I don't know much about this but it Seems like their ability to make these strikes will disappear pretty quickly .
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Severian the Torturer
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1:26p
from what I have heard, the major ports to the West of the Strait are planning on being exposed to attack for 3 months or more with limited traffic through Hormuz.

Everything will be relocated to Salalah/Sohar or Jeddah
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JP_Losman
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1:33p
AG
Iran right now is like Baby Face Nelson when he was getting taken down by the G men.

Tommy Guns blazing until he was completely full of lead
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Windy City Ag
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In reply to Tailgate88 • 1:38p
AG
Quote:
Who are they going to call? There is no organized government of "Iran" at the moment, just a bunch of dead Mullah's and a few waiting to get blown up.


This is an oversimplification.

The IRGC has nearly 120,000 members and Iranian active duty soldiers add another 600,000 on top of that. The parliament has 290 members and their is a whole network of bonyads, or charitable trusts, that are described as " a vast parastatal network of enterprises, business networks and economic assets that have come to control the 'commanding heights' of the country's economy.

Good read on the subject.

https://www.clingendael.org/publication/beyond-irgc-rise-irans-military-bonyad-complex

There are tens of thousands of senior folks around the country with a lot of money and weapons and a lot to lose from real regime change. The senior most of these folks I am sure are on speed dial with most Gulf Leaders despite ongoing tensions.
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TKEAg04
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In reply to LMCane • 1:40p
AG
LMCane said:
I have been yelling for air dropping ammo and kalashnikovs into Iran for two months now!

no better time than today.

RPGs, Lion and Sun flags, AK47, ammo, helmets.

drop them near every major city and let the civilians (most of the men have had mandatory military service) take over from there.

I can hear the chest opening music....lol

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bonfarr
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In reply to AgsMnn • 1:43p
AG
AgsMnn said:
Who is running Iran and making the calls on where to hit?


They have no C&C system in place. Ever since the head was cut off the snake they have given localized control to make decisions. I think the report said there are like 32 districts in Iran each with some type of Governor and they were ordered to keep things going in their district. I don't think the new Ayotollah has much control authority right now.
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jabberwalkie09
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In reply to AgBQ-00 • 1:51p
AG
AgBQ-00 said:
because they are morons. see the every gun ever is an AR or AK meme for reference

ETA: the "escalation" would be Iran using newer tech. But there is some speculation that the performance of their "hypersonics" is nothing more than normal typical ballistic speeds achieved on terminal phase. (source on that is Habitual Linecrosser on YouTube. He is a recently retired Air Defense Artillery (patriot system) guy)

HLC's informative videos are pretty cool. His satire vids are entertaining too. IIRC he tends to make note that hypersonic is speeds of mach 5 or greater which ICBM's and probably medium/inermediate range ballistic missiles exceed easily. The space shuttles also did those kind of speeds on reentry.

My take away from watching the hypersonic hysteria is that it's built on the glide vehicles performing the way they're said to, unpredictable flight path versus a ballistic missile's. So if the glide vehicles actually do perform, to assure a kill you're probably looking at needing to hit them in the boost phase.
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Tailgate88
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In reply to Windy City Ag • 1:54p
AG
Windy City Ag said:
Quote:
Who are they going to call? There is no organized government of "Iran" at the moment, just a bunch of dead Mullah's and a few waiting to get blown up.


This is an oversimplification.

The IRGC has nearly 120,000 members and Iranian active duty soldiers add another 600,000 on top of that. The parliament has 290 members and their is a whole network of bonyads, or charitable trusts, that are described as " a vast parastatal network of enterprises, business networks and economic assets that have come to control the 'commanding heights' of the country's economy.

Good read on the subject.

https://www.clingendael.org/publication/beyond-irgc-rise-irans-military-bonyad-complex

There are tens of thousands of senior folks around the country with a lot of money and weapons and a lot to lose from real regime change. The senior most of these folks I am sure are on speed dial with most Gulf Leaders despite ongoing tensions.

I appreciate the information and stand corrected!
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GAC06
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In reply to Severian the Torturer • 1:57p
AG
Severian the Torturer said:
Abu Dhabi is getting pounded right now, with multiple drones hitting Yas Island, the extremely high end suburban area where expats live.

I think the USA is going to find itself without allies very soon. I'm a very very minor liason for US trade in the Emirates, but I know some pretty big businessmen and you will start hearing rumblings from some of the non-royal industry leaders about bargaining with Iran to stop the strikes.


The good news (for us) is gulf states like UAE don't really have anything they can negotiate with Iran other than threatening retaliation. We aren't using their bases for strikes, and they can't get us or Israel to stop.
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American Hardwood
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In reply to Windy City Ag • 2:02p
AG
Windy City Ag said:
Quote:
Who are they going to call? There is no organized government of "Iran" at the moment, just a bunch of dead Mullah's and a few waiting to get blown up.


This is an oversimplification.

The IRGC has nearly 120,000 members and Iranian active duty soldiers add another 600,000 on top of that. The parliament has 290 members and their is a whole network of bonyads, or charitable trusts, that are described as " a vast parastatal network of enterprises, business networks and economic assets that have come to control the 'commanding heights' of the country's economy.

Good read on the subject.

https://www.clingendael.org/publication/beyond-irgc-rise-irans-military-bonyad-complex

There are tens of thousands of senior folks around the country with a lot of money and weapons and a lot to lose from real regime change. The senior most of these folks I am sure are on speed dial with most Gulf Leaders despite ongoing tensions.

That to me sounds like a cluster. If I was a foreign power, I wouldn't trust the word of whatever representative, from whatever segment, of whatever level, of whatever network is claiming they are in charge and speaking with the authority to engage in foreign diplomacy on behalf of the entire nation. A nation which clearly has all the earmarks of facing a civil war to challenge any authority that claims it is currently in charge.

ETA: Also, I think that if there is anyone in charge of anything right now, claiming to be in charge is probably suicidal.
The best way to keep evil men from wielding great power is to not create great power in the first place.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to American Hardwood • 2:05p
AG
Quote:
That to me sounds like a cluster. If I was a foreign power, I wouldn't trust the word of whatever representative, from whatever segment, of whatever level, of whatever network is claiming they are in charge and speaking with the authority to engage in foreign diplomacy on behalf of the entire nation which clearly has all the earmarks of facing a civil war to challenge any authority that claims it is currently in charge.

Also sounds like a good way to make oneself a Mossad target, as well.
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Severian the Torturer
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In reply to GAC06 • 2:08p
GAC06 said:
Severian the Torturer said:
Abu Dhabi is getting pounded right now, with multiple drones hitting Yas Island, the extremely high end suburban area where expats live.

I think the USA is going to find itself without allies very soon. I'm a very very minor liason for US trade in the Emirates, but I know some pretty big businessmen and you will start hearing rumblings from some of the non-royal industry leaders about bargaining with Iran to stop the strikes.


The good news (for us) is gulf states like UAE don't really have anything they can negotiate with Iran other than threatening retaliation. We aren't using their bases for strikes, and they can't get us or Israel to stop.

Yes, it sounds like there might be a very vocal "decoupling" from the USA where the UAE tells the USA to leave their waters and territory, so they stop getting attacekd, but nothing else really changes
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bonfarr
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2:11p
AG
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MasonB
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2:14p
AG
Helpful to remember that the IRG numbers aren't at the same level of loyalty. They have been the only game in town for 50 years. A lot of those folks never had any viable alternatives and may be looking for a way out.

Obviously several higher ups have turned against the regime and have been cooperating with Mossad.

Hopefully the underlings start seeing the tide turning and drop their allegiance, which is fear based.

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Jack Squat 83
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In reply to bonfarr • 2:19p
AG
bonfarr said:


Now there's a Brigadier General about to go from together, to apart.
I don't think you know me.
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P.U.T.U
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In reply to Jack Squat 83 • 2:24p
AG
I think in the back of a lot of people's minds is some "rogue" element sneaking a small backpack style nuke or putting one on a missile. People do crazy things when they are desperate.

People like him that are blind to the facts can be just as dangerous.
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