***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

2,904,010 Views | 13535 Replies | Last: 7 hrs ago by Ag with kids
redline248
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
[Do not bypass obscenity filters -- Staff]
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Yeah pretty incredible if we hit one that had a bunch of oil in it.

Just the engine room no doubt, but still. This one obviously was not laden with oil but...not just the engine room.
flashplayer
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
That's six tankers Iran has lost within a week. That is going to sting like hell.
MaxPower
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Do we know how many they have (or had I should say)?
flashplayer
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Google search says they have 22 remaining trapped in the strait that have not been hit yet, 6 confirmed hits. Edit to clarify that they started with 28.
Buglerank62
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Kind of seems our strategy is working. Just a matter of time before they cry UNCLE.
ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Using ballistic missiles to successfully target naval ships at range is a very difficult thing to do even for a highly advanced military. Iran attempting this is lunacy on their part. Practically zero chance of a hit or even accurate targeting.

Requires not only up to the second intelligence on target location but also trajectory changes and guidance mid-flight as the target is moving. Even a large ship moving at relatively slow speed would be many kilometers away from the target area by the time a missile is launched and arrives.
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
MaxPower said:

Do we know how many they have (or had I should say)?

They have quite a few via their 'shadow' tanker fleet though. That however I think is going to run dry shortly, even though Chinese buyers finally upped their purchases over the past week (they have been oddly very down for many months). The Iranian 'at sea' total is difficult to swag at but low and getting lower as they can't load/ship more via Hormuz, so empty tankers out east/south of the blockade are functionally useless.

And it's exceptionally difficult to track/label where the Chicom's get their oil from, so I don't really trust any of the figures on social media/from analysts. Example I have read discussing the 'problem' of figuring that out:
Quote:

Chinese customs have shown zero oil imports from Iran for years. Tanker trackers tell a different story over a million barrels per day at points last year, now down to roughly 530k bpd in August per Kpler, one of the leading commodities and shipping data analytics companies. That latest figure is down from about 823k in July as the war and blockade has squeezed the flow.

The mechanism: Iranian crude gets relabeled at sea. Ship-to-ship transfers off Johor, Malaysia outside anyone's jurisdiction turn Iranian cargo into "Malaysian" cargo on paper. The volume gap shows up in the numbers: Chinese customs report zero from Iran while "Malaysian" imports run well above what Malaysia produces.

The buyers left holding this trade are many independent so-called "teapot" refiners in the eastern coastal province of Shandong. Those refiners have no dollar exposure, no Western insurers, nothing for Treasury to leverage the way it can pressure Sinopec and CNPC. Payments for the teapot refiners move in yuan through China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System essentially China's alternative to SWIFT for clearing yuan-denominated payments internationally. Small regional banks, like the Bank of Kunlun, was sanctioned since 2012, are still in the plumbing. None of it touches the U.S. financial system.

The squeeze is real, which is why the CCP has been buying more Russian oil.
MagnumLoad
How long do you want to ignore this user?
How can china be getting Iranian oil by any method if Iranian ports are blockaded?
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
Kyle Field Shade Chaser
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Rail and pipeline
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
MagnumLoad said:

How can china be getting Iranian oil by any method if Iranian ports are blockaded?

Again one can find various sources to give a vast array of figures but they have oil 'at sea' from before the blockade, functionally, which is then 'trans-shipped' off Malaysia etc. to China. China has been their primary customer for years but showed no official Iranian imports due to the subterfuge/dishonesty.

Oil isn't paid for when it leaves Kharg island, it is paid for when it shows up in the destination port. The process intentionally is neither instantaneous, nor transparent. China isn't getting any oil via rail from Iran. That would require painstaking gage-changing of the rail cars, and a lengthy route that just isn't real practical for this purpose to Chicom refineries. They also don't have any pipelines connecting them to IRGC fields.
flashplayer
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
MagnumLoad said:

How can china be getting Iranian oil by any method if Iranian ports are blockaded?


They have a bunch of oil laden ships that are anchored off the coast of China that they got out of the strait during the June MOU.

Once these get emptied out into Chinese refineries, there is no replenishing them so long as the blockade stands
txaggie_08
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
They got like 60MM barrels out of the Strait when Trump lifted the blockade. It's been sitting on water, slowly getting sold to China.
MagnumLoad
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Good info
I hate tu. It's in my blood.
ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
According to senior Iranian officials who spoke to Reuters, Iran only has about 2 months of gasoline supply left. Their refinery capacity has been diminished and they have been importing gasoline.
javajaws
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ErnestEndeavor said:

According to senior Iranian officials who spoke to Reuters, Iran only has about 2 months of gasoline supply left. Their refinery capacity has been diminished and they have been importing gasoline.

What they have will last longer than that since they'll just keep raising the price until nobody can afford it in order to stretch out what they have.
"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." - Ben Franklin
Ag with kids
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ErnestEndeavor said:

Using ballistic missiles to successfully target naval ships at range is a very difficult thing to do even for a highly advanced military. Iran attempting this is lunacy on their part. Practically zero chance of a hit or even accurate targeting.

Requires not only up to the second intelligence on target location but also trajectory changes and guidance mid-flight as the target is moving. Even a large ship moving at relatively slow speed would be many kilometers away from the target area by the time a missile is launched and arrives.

That's exactly what I was thinking. Ballistic missiles are for static targets, not dynamic ones.

There's no way they have mastered the mid-course correction (directed by radar data) and end-course maneuvering that would be needed for that type of attack.
You can turn off signatures, btw
Bulldog73
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Sorry if already posted but- https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-prize-law-iranian-oil-tankers/. Seems Trump plans to seize the ships and their cargoes.
Quote:

The formal use of prize law, which first began in the early 17th century, would allow the administration to end-run civil asset forfeiture laws which can often be bogged down in court in favor of a streamlined process to force the handover of captured Iran-linked ships to the U.S. A judge overseeing the boat capture would have to rule that the U.S. met a specific standard to be awarded the ship's prize.

and
Quote:

If the department's efforts survive legal challenges, the court could award the U.S. the prize of oil or other cargo aboard seized Iran-linked ships. The prize could then be sold, and funds would likely be transferred to the Treasury Department.

nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
That is great to hear.

Houthi IRGC proxies continue to lose significant ground in their corner of the sand patch.


benchmark
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ErnestEndeavor said:

Using ballistic missiles to successfully target naval ships at range is a very difficult thing to do even for a highly advanced military. Iran attempting this is lunacy on their part. Practically zero chance of a hit or even accurate targeting.

Iran is rumored to have used their recently developed 'Qasem Basir' anti-ship ballistic missile ... said to use midcourse inertial nav and electro-optical infrared seeker for terminal image match maneuvering.

Our side isn't talking. We don't know if our ships used evasive maneuvers, decoys, interceptors, etc. In short, we (the public) don't have a clue if this was a legit threat or a hail-Mary. That said, we did respond by taking out 3 of their tankers and amping up our rhetoric - so there's that.
YouBet
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Good to see. I wasn't aware the Yemeni government had any capability left to even fight back against the Houthis. Wonder if we've been supplying them on the side.
ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
So basically a Russian or Chinese missile that they slapped an Islamic logo on.
BCrusher91
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
And that didn't work as we intercepted….

Good news all around
Jock 07
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
I'd say most likely some derivative of the chicoms ASBMs they've developed for their A2AD
t_J_e_C_x
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
[Do not drive by this military action update thread and dump political commentary on it when it's been clear that belongs on a different thread -- Staff]
richardag
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Any thoughts on military actions being considered on 9/11?
Look at the orators in our republics; as long as they are poor, both state and people can only praise their uprightness; but once they are fattened on the public funds, they conceive a hatred for justice, plan intrigues against the people and attack the democracy.
-Aristophanes
ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Does not look like a stealth configuration with the external weapons.

ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Didn't see this posted here - update to the tanker strikes with confirmation that one sunk.

ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
richardag said:

Any thoughts on military actions being considered on 9/11?

Would not shock me if Iran tries something.
flown-the-coop
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
ErnestEndeavor said:

richardag said:

Any thoughts on military actions being considered on 9/11?

Would not shock me if Iran tries something.

I posted earlier but Rosh Hashana starts Friday evening.

If they really want to go bold, they attack on foreign soil. I pray that they are unable to go that route.
ErnestEndeavor
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Israel issued another warning today not to try anything.

And it looks like Netanyahu is going to the UN soon. Hopefully they don't try anything in New York.
Ag with kids
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
flown-the-coop said:

ErnestEndeavor said:

richardag said:

Any thoughts on military actions being considered on 9/11?

Would not shock me if Iran tries something.

I posted earlier but Rosh Hashana starts Friday evening.

If they really want to go bold, they attack on foreign soil. I pray that they are unable to go that route.



NSFW
You can turn off signatures, btw
First Page Refresh
Page 388 of 388
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.