Didn't Trump campaign on mass deportations and not starting new wars, especially in the Middle East? He is failing at both. Did not get what I voted for.

txwxman said:

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bonfarr said:

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txwxman said:

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bonfarr said:

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Regime change to what exactly? I am all for putting the Ayotollah and his mullah henchmen in the same prison as Maduro but who takes their place? It isn't as if they have a big bench of leaders with Western values to pull from.

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Javid Shah

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That would be a complete disaster IMO.

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What's the alternative?

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That's the $1 Million question. I think when the power vacuum is created when the clerics are pushed out it will be a ****show for a long time.

You can go ahead and play the team red and negotiate with yourself games. That's what we all wanted and talked about during the campaign, he campaigned on it, now you're negotiating with yourself. I like tangible results to back up the rhetoric and bravado and memes. 3x Trump voter but it's getting hard to defend at this point when we're falling well short of the America First we all envisioned and Trump sold us.

WinTheWholeDamnThing said:

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Didn't Trump campaign on mass deportations and not starting new wars, especially in the Middle East? He is failing at both. Did not get what I voted for.

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He may have campaigned as an isolationist, but surprise, he is not an isolationist. At any rate, Trump has already assured folks in Iran that help is on the way…locked and loaded…etc.. If Trump agrees to a watered down nuclear deal built on the dead bodies of 50k Iranians, that would not be a good execution of the art of the deal. By then, Trump won't have to worry about being compared to Obama, he'll be worse than Carter.

txwxman said:

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WinTheWholeDamnThing said:

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Didn't Trump campaign on mass deportations and not starting new wars, especially in the Middle East? He is failing at both. Did not get what I voted for.

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He may have campaigned as an isolationist, but surprise, our politicians are compromised.

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Fify

Pair of E-3s on the move tonight, heading east...

chiphijason said:

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How does Iran afford 5,000 trained fighters indefinitely in the United States? At $50,000 each to sustain them that is at an absolute minimum $250 million a year. The figure would likely be a lot higher, especially considering the amount of graft that would occur on those payments. That is more than they give to Hamas annually. If they have 5,000 fighters, they would have unleashed at least a few before the last time that we bombed them to show how much they can actually hurt us instead of just lobbing rockets at Israel. Insurgents are not like a nuclear weapon that will mean regime change if used.

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I'll raise you the PALLETS of cash sent there by Obama and Biden

HalifaxAg said:

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chiphijason said:

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How does Iran afford 5,000 trained fighters indefinitely in the United States? At $50,000 each to sustain them that is at an absolute minimum $250 million a year. The figure would likely be a lot higher, especially considering the amount of graft that would occur on those payments. That is more than they give to Hamas annually. If they have 5,000 fighters, they would have unleashed at least a few before the last time that we bombed them to show how much they can actually hurt us instead of just lobbing rockets at Israel. Insurgents are not like a nuclear weapon that will mean regime change if used.

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I'll raise you the PALLETS of cash (our income tax dollars) sent there by Obama and Biden

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Gilligan said:

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How often does it work out when we intervene?

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It works out every time for our congressmen and women!

Always good for their portfolios!

A big question is what will action/non-action do to the midterms?

The 1977 anthem "Commando" by The Ramones is playing again in my brain.

Beer me, Marge.

I had forgotten about that idiotic claim. The Biden crime familia of course understood perfectly well how fungible money is.

Iran is closing the strait of Hormuz today for 'military drills' ostensibly.

#USAF United States Air Force - Middle East Activity (Coronet)
17 February - 1129z

There are currently 36x F-16s and 12x F-22s on the move, or about to depart towards the Middle East. 12x F-16s each from Aviano and Spangdahlem in Europe, and 12x from McEntire Joint National… https://t.co/5OsSSHZVp3 pic.twitter.com/eZGqbqvnyg

— Armchair Admiral 🇬🇧 (@ArmchairAdml) February 17, 2026

bonfarr said:

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Regime change to what exactly? I am all for putting the Ayotollah and his mullah henchmen in the same prison as Maduro but who takes their place? It isn't as if they have a big bench of leaders with Western values to pull from.

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so we can suppose you haven't heard the millions of Iranians around the world yelling for "Javid Shah" the last 7 weeks?

Trump campaigned on no new wars, but to be fair Iran has been proclaiming "death to America" for decades. As much as I don't want a new war/fight/etc, I feel more confident destroying them now instead of kicking the can down the road and them ***** slapping us from behind with a dem president in charge all while we are paying them billions.

LMCane said:

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bonfarr said:

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Regime change to what exactly? I am all for putting the Ayotollah and his mullah henchmen in the same prison as Maduro but who takes their place? It isn't as if they have a big bench of leaders with Western values to pull from.

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so we can suppose you haven't heard the millions of Iranians around the world yelling for "Javid Shah" the last 7 weeks?

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Of course I have but they are yelling for a symbol not a man or a leader. There are people in Iran that remember when they had a better life under the Shah but that guy is dead. They don't know his son . Reza Pahlavi hasn't lived in Iran for 50 years and has never been a leader of millions of people. If he is named the new leader and doesn't turn the economy around quickly and get the electricity and water flowing again they will turn on him too. The Return of the King fantasy is just that, a fantasy. It is going to take a strong leader to keep that powder keg of a country together. Maybe Pahlavi has it in him but I don't see how when he has spent half a century living in luxurious exile.

bonfarr said:

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Regime change to what exactly? I am all for putting the Ayotollah and his mullah henchmen in the same prison as Maduro but who takes their place? It isn't as if they have a big bench of leaders with Western values to pull from.

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A more western aligned iranian leader that basically does two things
-Stop trying to create a nuclear weapon
-Give control over the oil flow.

Objective one just makes the world more stable
Objective two turns the heat up on china as one more of their main oil importers falls to american control.

Its looking like WW3 is going to be a logistical game of:

'How much can china withhold minerals for to chips'
vs
'How much can America withhold oil for war'

WinTheWholeDamnThing said:

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Didn't Trump campaign on mass deportations and not starting new wars, especially in the Middle East? He is failing at both. Did not get what I voted for.

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He closed the border and ~2M Biden illegals are gone since he's been elected. All things considering that's pretty good.

Remember he has to fight his own party, the Democrats, and the Deep State to even get that. I think he deserves a good grade on this issue.

I'm holding off on foreign engagements for the time being. I supported Venezuela action because I'm a Monro Doctrine 2.0 guy. Less enthusiastic about Iran but it won't hurt my feelings if we collapse them.

So if that's what the majority of Iranians want (even symbolically) you'd have to think that could be what happens … right? The "that" being a more free and open society whether it be under the leadership of Pavlavi or someone else.

It's proven to be impossible under the iron fist of the Mullahs. I understand it's unclear what Iran morphs into post Mullah control but it seems like it would be significantly better for both the Iranian people and the Region and World than what it has been . Doesn't that make some sense.?

I'm not for a major boots on the ground US intervention but getting rid of the evil Mullahs seems to me to be a plus for everyone except the Mullahs and their allies.

If that's what they want then more power to them and I hope it works out for them as that would probably be the best outcome for the West. I'm not optimistic that Pahlavi is the man though.

We've been fighting muslims for 25 years at the behest of Israel and our muslim problem is worse than ever. What makes people think a war with Iran is gonna help anything?

Would it really be a "war", or just a complete shellingleaving them with nothing?

Not trying to pick a fight or argue I'm just under the impression that's what this could look like?

I'm no expert but I don't see how you could manage a complete regime change without boots on the ground. We can take out their missile capability and their nuclear program with air power and missiles of our own but to kill enough of the clerics someone will have to be doing the dirty work on the ground. I assume the CIA has been cultivating a high ranking asset in the Iranian military that will either tell their men to stand down while the masses take to the streets and storm all of the government buildings and palaces or even actively assist in the overthrow.

bonfarr said:

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I'm no expert but I don't see how you could manage a complete regime change without boots on the ground. We can take out their missile capability and their nuclear program with air power and missiles of our own but to kill enough of the clerics someone will have to be doing the dirty work on the ground. I assume the CIA has been cultivating a high ranking asset in the Iranian military that will either tell their men to stand down while the masses take to the streets and storm all of the government buildings and palaces or even actively assist in the overthrow.

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Agreed. Considering Mossad already has assets in country (and I'm sure we do as well to some degree) this would be the course of action. We already know we snuck in thousands of Starlinks, so we obviously have assets already there or close enough to count.

We aren't putting boots on the ground so I'm not sure why anyone would think this. Americans would understandably lose their **** over that.

We are absolutely not putting boots on the ground in Iran. First there is no border country for which we could stage material and supplies and bring them in. Then you have the terrain of Iran which has limited the ability if any invaders for centuries. It's not happening in a conventional way.

Latest episode of FAFO - Iran edition.

🚨 JUST IN: In a bombshell statement, Senior IRGC Advisor Mohammad Reza Naghdi just declared that "The United States is finished; it is incapable of doing a damn thing even if it deploys 12 aircraft carriers." America is already "drowning in frustration and global humiliation." pic.twitter.com/2IYwqwcLQp

— WORLD NEWS (@_MAGA_NEWS_) February 17, 2026

oh look!

another "few weeks of discussions with the Islamic Republic" where they will "provide additional details"

because EVERY AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION HAS BEEN SAYING THIS SINCE 1979.

BREAKING: Ayatollah Khamenei just threatened to sink U.S. aircraft carriers — on the same day the regime claims it wants a new agreement.

This is the pattern: threaten America in the morning, talk “diplomacy” in the afternoon. Serial deception. pic.twitter.com/HvU0owrpsY

— Eyal Yakoby (@EYakoby) February 17, 2026

The Iranian people are in pretty bad shape with the state of their economy and the threat of a Day Zero water crisis looming over their heads. There will be an even more significant humanitarian crisis there in the near future if nothing is done. The last thing I want, as an American, is to reward the insane losers running that country with humanitarian aid that rescues them from the consequences of their own poor management.

Colonel Kurtz said:

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We've been fighting muslims for 25 years at the behest of Israel and our muslim problem is worse than ever. What makes people think a war with Iran is gonna help anything?

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when you kill the Queen, the mound dies.

Their water crisis seems to have lapsed when they said it would be cataclysmic. Did they get some rain deferring this apocalypse?

It is still a major issue. The ruling council or whatever you call it has been rationing water it's just not a wise thing for Iranians to complain about publicly unless you want to get shot.

Quote:

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Lack of access to water has sent Iranians to the streets in the past. In 2021, several people were killed and hundreds arrested as part of the "Uprising of the Thirsty" and "water, electricity, life our absolute rights" has become a rallying cry at protests over the last year.

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https://www.dw.com/en/iran-at-an-environmental-crossroads-paths-to-recovery/a-75523489