+5,500 last 60 minutes. Good pace

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

+4,900 last 60 minutes for GOP

Down to below D+190K now.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

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Oh I have no doubt he leans right and is a GOP homer. But most of his tweets are literally reporting voting numbers. I was answering the question of 'don't you think others would be on the same numbers?'

Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

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He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

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Didn't say he was wrong, just responding to HoustonAggie

Check out the map and hover over Miami/Dade and Palm Beach counties.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

aggiehawg said:

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Check out the map and hover over Miami/Dade and Palm Beach counties.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

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Both of those counties lean GOP by In person voting...Good sign for election day with knowledge that Mail in is heavy DEM

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

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And probably a pretty good idea on how to get and interpret the info.

aTm2004 said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

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And probably a pretty good idea on how to get and interpret the info.

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Agreed

aggiehawg said:

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Check out the map and hover over Miami/Dade and Palm Beach counties.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

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So this is only in person? No count yet on mail in?

Looks like Broward county is going to have to have 200% of registered voters this year

Fightin_Aggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Check out the map and hover over Miami/Dade and Palm Beach counties.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

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So this is only in person? No count yet on mail in?

Looks like Broward county is going to have to have 200% of registered voters this year

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It's Coward county...

Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

---

He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

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Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

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Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

---

He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

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Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

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Of course he's going to give his opinion, otherwise he could just provide a link to the raw data. He's up front with his methodology which is traditional, R's vote R and D's vote D. This year will likely be a bit different but it could end up being the same (D's voting R cancel out all the R's voting D).

He was one of the VERY few who nailed 2016 so he has that going for him. He also nailed 4 of the 5 most contested Senate seats in 2018 and missed the 5th by half a point. Yes, he missed badly on the House and he openly admits it, unlike MANY pollsters who act like they've never been wrong. Since 2016 he has a better track record overall than almost all of the other pollsters and he does NOT use polling data, mostly registration numbers and how they correlate to previous elections.

Does that make sense or is he just a GOP hack? Your answer will say a lot more about you than it does him.

Fightin_Aggie said:

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aggiehawg said:

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Check out the map and hover over Miami/Dade and Palm Beach counties.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

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So this is only in person? No count yet on mail in?

Looks like Broward county is going to have to have 200% of registered voters this year

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There are buttons at the bottom left that allows you to filter by EV-In Person, EV-Mail Only or EV-All

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

---

Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

---

He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

---

Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

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LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.

Secolobo said:

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Just talked to a buddy from Tampa. He said Raymond James Stadium looks like the Super Bowl.

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This Biden rally related or voting related?

Secolobo said:

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Just talked to a buddy from Tampa. He said Raymond James Stadium looks like the Super Bowl.

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Hopefully you reminded your friend that his eyes lie and Biden is +8 in Florida...

Gyles Marrett said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

---

Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

---

Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

---

He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

---

Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

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LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.

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Mostly true but in my retort I was assuming he would cherry pick one of the tweets where Larry says something to the effect of "If this keeps up it's over" or something along those lines. Yes, for the most part he's just straight giving the numbers but I didn't want to provide him an "out."

Do you guys see that?

It's the tide receding on the Florida shores.

A MAGA Tsunami is coming.

Prosperdick said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

---

Dumb_Loggy said:

---

Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

---

Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

---

He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

---

Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

---

LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.

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Mostly true but in my retort I was assuming he would cherry pick one of the tweets where Larry says something to the effect of "If this keeps up it's over" or something along those lines. Yes, for the most part he's just straight giving the numbers but I didn't want to provide him an "out."

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Gotcha...I tend to have the habit of reading the numbers and making my own interpretations overlooking those extra comments like you said he adds. But you're right, I'm sure he'd have jumped all over that like a 6 foot white circle at a Biden event.

Prosperdick said:

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Ulrich said:

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DCPD158 said:

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I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

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The measure is of limited utility, like everything else, but at least it's something. I think a decent model can be built by combining voter registration, early vote affiliation, polling, sign counts, and donor counts, but every one of those requires so much context that it's hard to draw a conclusion.

And the real problem with all this is that there's only one "real" event every four years. The landscape changes faster than that, so it's mostly theory in a vacuum with no chance to calibrate.

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Of course it's assuming an R votes R and a D votes D, it's illegal to open the ballots before Election Day. As for the landscape change in Florida there have been almost 200,000 more Republicans registered to vote since 2016.

I suppose you could argue all those people who took the time to register Republican despise Trump and are only doing this as a cruel prank on Election Day.

Seriously though, if you look at the rallies in Florida as well as the polling of Hispanics/Cubans for Trump there's a VERY good chance there will be more registered Dems voting Trump (at least at the top of the ticket) than R's voting for Biden.

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Which still leaves almost 200k more registered Democrats than Republicans in Florida as of August 31,2020.

https://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reportsxlsx/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

There are a lot more Republican Super Voters left too, and Republicans tend to vote more on election day. I'd put this one in the bag for Republicans. However just because you haven't voted in the last four elections doesn't mean that you're not turning out for this one. Democrats have enough voters out there to win, it just doesn't look likely at this point.

Gyles Marrett said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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StoneCold99 said:

---

HoustonAggie37713 said:

---

Dumb_Loggy said:

---

Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

---

Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

---

He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

---

Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

---

LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.

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Yeah, he's pure science.

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Gyles Marrett said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

---

Gyles Marrett said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

---

StoneCold99 said:

---

HoustonAggie37713 said:

---

Dumb_Loggy said:

---

Prosperdick said:

---

---

Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

---

Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

---

No, I honestly don't think other pollsters would be on facts and actual numbers.

---

Well he was part of Trumps internal polling team in 2016 so I'd say yeah, he has a right bias.

---

He's literally just sharing data anyone of us could look up....Fine to say he supports Trump but if you want to dismiss it you'd be better off explaining why he's wrong.....but I know that's hard to do when he's just quoting numbers because it's hard to argue with factual numbers. Much easier just to dismiss and scream bias.

---

Wrong. He's giving commentary that may or may not be true. Which may or may not be based on good political science. He's putting a slant on data.

---

LOL wut? Literally all his Florida posts have been "The vote totals are now ___________. Trump needs __________ votes to get to the amount he needs based on 2016". How you see that as slant bias is beyond me.

---

Yeah, he's pure science.

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Yeah, he is justified in being confident, but can we really predicted how the independents will go? They could hand it to Biden. Or maybe the polling of minorities are off and they skews democrat more than they did in 2016. The independent and party crossover votes could still give Florida to Biden, despite a high turnout of registered republicans.

He addressed that, as long as the people who normally vote republican show up there is not enough independents and democrats to outvote them.

All possibilities. However, some polls show independents breaking at best 55 - 45 Biden which is not enough if the Republicans can get the margin below 50k before election day. Most show it 50/50 or very slight Biden lean which is a virtual wash.

P.U.T.U said:

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He addressed that, as long as the people who normally vote republican show up there is not enough independents and democrats to outvote them.

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and you can't predict D voting R or R voting D this cycle. Really just thinking about it make your head explode. Ready for it to be over

R's close gap +4,800 past 60 minutes

I didn't really want to start a whole new thread for this - what's the deal with EV in Ohio? In almost every swing state Democrats are ahead in EV as expected and we're conjecturing whether Republicans will make up ground. But Target Smart seems to be showing a landslide for Republicans. Obviously this is based off Target Smart's modeling so we don't know the candidate votes for sure (like in all states), but is there anything that would make their modeling for Ohio way off base compared to other states? Is Trump easily running away with Ohio?

2016
Dem 704,610 (47.5%)
Rep 595,726 (40.2%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.3%)

2020
Dem 1,063,669 (41.2%)
Rep 1,188,383 (46.1%)
Unaf 183,212 (12.7%)

If Republicans have a 5% lead in EV, is there really any chance this goes blue in the end?

So Florida is trending towards Republicans and Ohio is looking like it's practically locked up. Without these states, mathematically Biden still has a lot of paths to victory but it's hard to imagine a president winning without Florida and Ohio given how previous elections have gone.

It's 2020. Nothing would shock me.