bmks270 said:

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Dem lead is down to 204k. (44k R gain today).

In 2016 Trump was +201k on Election Day.

With Dems voting by mail expect the Trump Election Day margin to exceed 2016.
Bidens only hope of winning is massive party crossover and winning independents.
I think Trump is going to win Florida by 3+ considering his increased minority support since 2016 and the Cuban voting block in Florida.

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I briefly looked at that site, but am missing how we know that the current R early voting is going to decrease the EV numbers?

BCO07 said:

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bmks270 said:

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Dem lead is down to 204k. (44k R gain today).

In 2016 Trump was +201k on Election Day.

With Dems voting by mail expect the Trump Election Day margin to exceed 2016.
Bidens only hope of winning is massive party crossover and winning independents.
I think Trump is going to win Florida by 3+ considering his increased minority support since 2016 and the Cuban voting block in Florida.

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I briefly looked at that site, but am missing how we know that the current R early voting is going to decrease the EV numbers?

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I'm not sure what you're asking. It's straight forward.
The democrats have returned 204,000 more ballots than republicans.
But in 2016, republicans had 201,000 more ballots than democrats on Election Day.
If you assume a larger republican margin for 2020 Election Day, which is a pretty safe assumption given democrats are not voting in person, then the current 204,000 democrat lead will be wiped out Election Day.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Florida weighted after today.

FLORIDA MODEL DAY 3:
PROJECTED TURNOUT:
10,827,769
PROJECTED VOTE TOTAL:
Trump - 50.32%
Biden - 47.05%

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Link to this model?

bmks270 said:

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BCO07 said:

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bmks270 said:

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Dem lead is down to 204k. (44k R gain today).

In 2016 Trump was +201k on Election Day.

With Dems voting by mail expect the Trump Election Day margin to exceed 2016.
Bidens only hope of winning is massive party crossover and winning independents.
I think Trump is going to win Florida by 3+ considering his increased minority support since 2016 and the Cuban voting block in Florida.

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I briefly looked at that site, but am missing how we know that the current R early voting is going to decrease the EV numbers?

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I'm not sure what you're asking. It's straight forward.
The democrats have returned 204,000 more ballots than republicans.
But in 2016, republicans had 201,000 more ballots than democrats on Election Day.
If you assume a larger republican margin for 2020 Election Day, which is a pretty safe assumption given democrats are not voting in person, then the current 204,000 democrat lead will be wiped out Election Day.

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My understanding is that there is a much higher early vote rate this year than last election. If that's true, wouldn't that mean that there will be fewer total R votes left to overcome that gap?

Yes but at the same time their share would be greater. They also have a 200k+ advantage in remaining 4/4 voters (those who voted in the last 4 elections).

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Where was the guy saying that FL was going to be over by Wednesday?

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It's over. Go look at the betting markets. Huge shift to Trump on the money line from late last week.

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/

Which odds?

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Missed your post earlier. Bookies.com

" Florida, as always a close race, saw odds flip back to Trump again this week. The GOP is at -121 with Democrats at -110 in the Sunshine State, where the lead has changed hands a few times in recent weeks. Last week, Biden was a -150 favorite in Florida."

This was 5 days ago. It's now up to -180 to -200 on sites I looked at.

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Florida weighted after today.

FLORIDA MODEL DAY 3:
PROJECTED TURNOUT:
10,827,769
PROJECTED VOTE TOTAL:
Trump - 50.32%
Biden - 47.05%

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Link to this model?

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BCO07 said:

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bmks270 said:

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BCO07 said:

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bmks270 said:

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Dem lead is down to 204k. (44k R gain today).

In 2016 Trump was +201k on Election Day.

With Dems voting by mail expect the Trump Election Day margin to exceed 2016.
Bidens only hope of winning is massive party crossover and winning independents.
I think Trump is going to win Florida by 3+ considering his increased minority support since 2016 and the Cuban voting block in Florida.

---

I briefly looked at that site, but am missing how we know that the current R early voting is going to decrease the EV numbers?

---

I'm not sure what you're asking. It's straight forward.
The democrats have returned 204,000 more ballots than republicans.
But in 2016, republicans had 201,000 more ballots than democrats on Election Day.
If you assume a larger republican margin for 2020 Election Day, which is a pretty safe assumption given democrats are not voting in person, then the current 204,000 democrat lead will be wiped out Election Day.

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My understanding is that there is a much higher early vote rate this year than last election. If that's true, wouldn't that mean that there will be fewer total R votes left to overcome that gap?

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Yes, however, I suspect the early difference is stronger among democrats than republicans. Florida has had early voting for a while. I think Joe is done website has a page showing in 2016 over 70% votes early on 2016. That could conceivably be bumped up to 80-85% for 2020.

There are more days of early voting left.
And still over 2,000,000 votes shy of the 2016 turnout. Trump has been winning the in person early vote by +13 so far, and polling of voter intent showed Republicans may be +20 on Election Day turnout.

Even if the remaining 2,000,000+ voters needed to reach 2016 turnout all vote early, if the +13 trend holds for in person voting, that is a republican margin of more than +260k.

The "4/4 voter" data indicates Republicans have 242k more that haven't yet voted than the democrats do. These are the most reliable voters so it's safe to assume they will materialize.

Seems like republicans have been gaining 40-50k a day this week, so they could be about even the day before the election. And then with a +20 Election Day turnout, it's a Trump victory. Assuming Trump gets his base and independents split evenly.

Depending on the party cross over vote and independent lean, Trump might already have more votes cast for him than Biden.

Keegan99 said:

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The super voters are holding out for the MAGA Shock and Awe campaign on Nov 3.

This is all good news for florida right?

Yes. Very good sign.

IDaggie06 said:

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This is all good news for florida right?

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Absolutely...and it further underscores how wrong the pollsters were that were predicting a Reagan/Mondale like landslide for Biden. There's absolutely no way you get a Reagan victory without Florida.

That being said need to keep the foot on the pedal and what I love about Trump is you can call him a lot of things but complacent isn't one of them.

I'd love for someone to aggregate all the rallies Hillary and Joe attended in 2016 and 2020 respectively and compare it to just this last week for Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if he still has performed more.

ETA - many deep red counties closed voting early as a weather precaution yesterday but should be fully open today all the way until 7pm.

Anyone expecting Zeta to affect turnout in the panhandle?

Florida picks up +2,500 R votes in the first hour of polling. Hopefully and can get back to the +4,000 pace of yesterday



North Carolina updated (only once per day)

Yesterday early vote lead for Democrats was 335,6880
Today update shows D lead of 322965

Only a 13K improvement for R's, not sure what the target value before election day is for NC

barnyard1996 said:

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Anyone expecting Zeta to affect turnout in the panhandle?

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The paramilitary drug cartel only has pull in the valley.

Florida is a slam dunk for Trump

Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

I'm holding fire in Seminole county until election day. It makes the enemey's vote-stealing calculations harder. "Whites of their eyes" and such.

I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

astros4545 said:

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Florida picks up +2,500 R votes in the first hour of polling. Hopefully and can get back to the +4,000 pace of yesterday



North Carolina updated (only once per day)

Yesterday early vote lead for Democrats was 335,6880
Today update shows D lead of 322965

Only a 13K improvement for R's, not sure what the target value before election day is for NC

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Dems had a 310K lead in 2016, for perspective.

DCPD158 said:

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I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

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Correct, its making assumption that the person votes the way they are registered

20% of the votes are unaffiliated which would completely change results based on how they vote

its still a good idea and estimate making several big assumptions

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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Yep, Florida was Even odds 7 days ago


GOP gap +4,500 votes past hour

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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Great. Same bookmaker (Bovada) has Biden -170 to win the whole thing.

https://offshoresportsbookfact.net/politics/2020-presidential-odds-bovada/

astros4545 said:

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Yep, Florida was Even odds 7 days ago


GOP gap +4,500 votes past hour

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Need to see AZ and PA start shifting.

DCPD158 said:

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I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

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The measure is of limited utility, like everything else, but at least it's something. I think a decent model can be built by combining voter registration, early vote affiliation, polling, sign counts, and donor counts, but every one of those requires so much context that it's hard to draw a conclusion.

And the real problem with all this is that there's only one "real" event every four years. The landscape changes faster than that, so it's mostly theory in a vacuum with no chance to calibrate.

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Who is this guy and what credibility does he have?

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Go through his twitter. he's a GOP homer and everything he posts is skewed. If you really think the GOP has Florida wrapped up by 800k, don't you think others would be on the same numbers? The truth is no one knows what election day turnout will be.

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Great. Same bookmaker (Bovada) has Biden -170 to win the whole thing.

https://offshoresportsbookfact.net/politics/2020-presidential-odds-bovada/

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Well that would make sense...

Oddsmakers are in the business of understanding how the public will bet. When the public reads polls, well there ya go.

DCPD158 said:

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I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

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I believe I said it a few pages back, but I'll say it again. There are most likely several Cubans and Venezuelans who are registered democrats but are voting Trump given they know what socialism really is.

Ulrich said:

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DCPD158 said:

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I think these count a R or D voting, but not how they voted. I know registered Ds that have voted early here in Florida, but voted Trump (my wife included).

Am I wrong on how I'm reading these?

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The measure is of limited utility, like everything else, but at least it's something. I think a decent model can be built by combining voter registration, early vote affiliation, polling, sign counts, and donor counts, but every one of those requires so much context that it's hard to draw a conclusion.

And the real problem with all this is that there's only one "real" event every four years. The landscape changes faster than that, so it's mostly theory in a vacuum with no chance to calibrate.

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Of course it's assuming an R votes R and a D votes D, it's illegal to open the ballots before Election Day. As for the landscape change in Florida there have been almost 200,000 more Republicans registered to vote since 2016.

I suppose you could argue all those people who took the time to register Republican despise Trump and are only doing this as a cruel prank on Election Day.

Seriously though, if you look at the rallies in Florida as well as the polling of Hispanics/Cubans for Trump there's a VERY good chance there will be more registered Dems voting Trump (at least at the top of the ticket) than R's voting for Biden.