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Buying physical gold/silver

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In reply to jagvocate • 12:20a, 4/4/22
jagvocate
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In reply to CC09LawAg • 7:43a, 4/4/22
AG
I think Silver now, in early 2022, is the value proposition of a generation.

Its ratio to gold has historically been 15:1 and silver currently is ~75:1 … a simple reversion to the mean implies a huge move in silver or a drop in gold. I'm betting on the former.

Silver has an industrial / electrical demand that makes it necessary for green eco dreams of electric cars, windmills, Solar panels, etc. and it's in most sophisticated military weapons. The coups de grace though is that it's getting harder to find and mine … we aren't making near enough of it.

So in addition to being "regular man's gold," I think silver has a lot of factors that will work in its favor in the coming crazy times.

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Mas89
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In reply to jagvocate • 8:15a, 4/4/22
AG
I'm not sure what years you are getting that 15-1 ratio for. Please explain.

Looking at the price for both for the last 20 years, a 60-1 gold to silver ratio looks about right. Including 2004 when I purchased some of both. Per google, the 2004 price average was 6.66 silver and 409.53 gold. Which is a 61.49 ratio.
Looking at 1990, 383.73 / 4.83 gives a 79.45 ratio for gold to silver.
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GrapevineAg
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8:34a, 4/4/22
AG
It was almost steady at 15:1 (gold:silver) for centuries until the Coinage Act of 1873. After that, the ratio has grown quite a bit.
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jagvocate
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9:45a, 4/4/22
AG
The ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 17.5:1.
In Roman times, the price ratio was set at 12 to 1.
In 1792, our founding fathers pegged the ratio at 15:1.

Many will say we as a society are smarter now and the newer ratios of the last century should be respected and history disregarded. But I am a silver bug, which means I have a bat **** crazy gene in the base case, and I'm betting on a reversion to the long mean, because everything is changing and few realize it ... [link to fantastiic Credit-Suisse article)

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Bocephus
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In reply to jagvocate • 4:16a, 4/5/22
AG
jagvocate said:
The ratio of silver to gold in the earth's crust is 17.5:1.
In Roman times, the price ratio was set at 12 to 1.
In 1792, our founding fathers pegged the ratio at 15:1.

Many will say we as a society are smarter now and the newer ratios of the last century should be respected and history disregarded. But I am a silver bug, which means I have a bat **** crazy gene in the base case, and I'm betting on a reversion to the long mean, because everything is changing and few realize it ... [link to fantastiic Credit-Suisse article)


One of the guys who shorted the housing market (Moneyball) told me that historically, economies were based on silver so I should keep buying it. That was good enough for me.
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
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BlitzBrother
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1:39p, 4/6/22
If I am wanting to hold $10,000 " end of the world " emergency transactable stash at home in silver , what would you recommend : American Eagles , 1 oz silver bars , rounds , other ? - Like thought of American Eagle given recognizable , but about 50% premium due to " replacement cost " - Silver bars closer to silver value although still 15 to 20% premium - What are thoughts , recommendations?
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Red Pear Realty
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1:51p, 4/6/22
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In your scenario do we still have batteries? Because if we don't have batteries it's harder to determine if your metal is really silver or not, so you probably need something that's highly recognizable and not easy to fake.
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mwp02ag
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 2:06p, 4/6/22
AG
Agreed. If you're talkin Walking Dead scenario you need to stock up on ammo, cigarettes, lighters, booze. That's gonna be good in that world. East barter.

Now if you're of the belief that I am, you think $10k/oz gold happens soon due to the death of fiat well then I'd be less worried about recognition because when you go to sell it or trade it for gold when the ratio gets right you'll be able to find buyers for it.

I'm just a rookie tryin to protect my purchase power though. I did just by some ASE for the first time. Just because I wanted them. I've also bought silver kangaroos, Kugerands, queen Elizabeth's (I think that's what they are called) and some of each of the TPM Texas series rounds.

I like to get them all out every so often just to check them out. All are gorgeous and just feel so right in my hand.
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CC09LawAg
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 3:47p, 4/6/22
Red Pear Realty said:
In your scenario do we still have batteries? Because if we don't have batteries it's harder to determine if your metal is really silver or not, so you probably need something that's highly recognizable and not easy to fake.


Is part of the appeal of "collections" or "series" of rounds that it legitimizes the coin? As in, if you have a set of 12 themed silver rounds and 10 of each, I would think that would carry some credibility to a buyer in a scenario where it can't be verified.

Am I wrong in thinking that?
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Esteban du Plantier
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In reply to BlitzBrother • 4:00p, 4/6/22
AG
BlitzBrother said:
If I am wanting to hold $10,000 " end of the world " emergency transactable stash at home in silver , what would you recommend : American Eagles , 1 oz silver bars , rounds , other ? - Like thought of American Eagle given recognizable , but about 50% premium due to " replacement cost " - Silver bars closer to silver value although still 15 to 20% premium - What are thoughts , recommendations?


Bags of 90% dimes.

Small denomination, trusted/easily identified and authenticated
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jagvocate
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In reply to Esteban du Plantier • 9:05p, 4/6/22
AG
Esteban du Plantier said:
BlitzBrother said:
If I am wanting to hold $10,000 " end of the world " emergency transactable stash at home in silver , what would you recommend : American Eagles , 1 oz silver bars , rounds , other ? - Like thought of American Eagle given recognizable , but about 50% premium due to " replacement cost " - Silver bars closer to silver value although still 15 to 20% premium - What are thoughts , recommendations?


Bags of 90% dimes.

Small denomination, trusted/easily identified and authenticated
Good luck finding those these days!

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ChiefKiefton
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In reply to jagvocate • 9:51p, 4/6/22
jagvocate said:
Esteban du Plantier said:
BlitzBrother said:
If I am wanting to hold $10,000 " end of the world " emergency transactable stash at home in silver , what would you recommend : American Eagles , 1 oz silver bars , rounds , other ? - Like thought of American Eagle given recognizable , but about 50% premium due to " replacement cost " - Silver bars closer to silver value although still 15 to 20% premium - What are thoughts , recommendations?


Bags of 90% dimes.

Small denomination, trusted/easily identified and authenticated
Good luck finding those these days!


Only 90% I am finding is at 25x!
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Esteban du Plantier
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In reply to ChiefKiefton • 10:16p, 4/6/22
AG
ChiefKiefton said:
jagvocate said:
Esteban du Plantier said:
BlitzBrother said:
If I am wanting to hold $10,000 " end of the world " emergency transactable stash at home in silver , what would you recommend : American Eagles , 1 oz silver bars , rounds , other ? - Like thought of American Eagle given recognizable , but about 50% premium due to " replacement cost " - Silver bars closer to silver value although still 15 to 20% premium - What are thoughts , recommendations?


Bags of 90% dimes.

Small denomination, trusted/easily identified and authenticated
Good luck finding those these days!


Only 90% I am finding is at 25x!


I just saw a bunch sell for 21-22x. Gotta know where to look.
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11:27p, 4/6/22
Esteban du Plantier
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In reply to [removed post] • 12:24a, 4/7/22
AG
FAT SEXY said:
I'm still pulling 20X or below by hawking eBay "Buy It Now" listings.. anything in that range is gobbled up quickly though. It is getting tighter however. I'm seeing less Silver hit the market and deals are getting fewer and farther between.

I avoid auctions on 90% Constitutional.. They always run up past 21x-22x these days.

A few of my Junk Silver purchases from the last month








Is there tax on coins on eBay?

I've bought a bunch of sterling, but no junk, and they charge sales tax on sterling.
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In reply to Esteban du Plantier • 12:28a, 4/7/22
aunuwyn08
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In reply to [removed post] • 1:01a, 4/7/22
AG
FAT SEXY said:
I'm still pulling 20X or below by hawking eBay "Buy It Now" listings.. anything in that range is gobbled up quickly though. It is getting tighter however. I'm seeing less Silver hit the market and deals are getting fewer and farther between.

I avoid auctions on 90% Constitutional.. They always run up past 21x-22x these days.

A few of my Junk Silver purchases from the last month








So you're the guy going head to head with me on ebay!
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mwp02ag
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8:39a, 4/7/22
AG
We have a good month on the books and were going to buy the $100 face bag of dimes and quarters from Tex metals for a bit less than $2400 but they sold out yesterday.

Don't know enough to buy comfortably on eBay yet so I was willing to pay the higher premium for a nice chunk of easily bartered coins.
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jagvocate
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In reply to mwp02ag • 9:04a, 4/7/22
AG
mwp02ag said:
We have a good month on the books and were going to buy the $100 face bag of dimes and quarters from Tex metals for a bit less than $2400 but they sold out yesterday.

Don't know enough to buy comfortably on eBay yet so I was willing to pay the higher premium for a nice chunk of easily bartered coins.
If I was retired I'd play the eBay game but the marginal savings isn't worth it to me at the moment. I don't play the "junk silver will be money game" much anyways -- if you really think it all falls apart to that extent, then

  • ammo, cigs, and vodka will bring a much higher premium and
  • how does one go to work with such a nihilist approach in the back of their mind?

I buy silver because I think it's more undervalued than gold and it will protect my assets from the coming hyperstagflation that's already begun. But the main thing is that folks here are taking steps to convert IOU money into real assets, and that's always a good thing.

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mwp02ag
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In reply to jagvocate • 10:10a, 4/7/22
AG
You know, I have a post right above saying the same things. Not sure what to think about my last post when my own words are put right back in my face.
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In reply to mwp02ag • 10:17a, 4/7/22
jagvocate
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In reply to mwp02ag • 1:29p, 4/7/22
AG
mwp02ag said:
You know, I have a post right above saying the same things. Not sure what to think about my last post when my own words are put right back in my face.
8 years in the Army showed me what some call the 'prison economy' (cigs, sex, and booze) rule when the thin veneer of society comes off ... not our original thoughts

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2:04a, 4/8/22
mwp02ag
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In reply to [removed post] • 6:03a, 4/8/22
AG
That's awesome info man, thanks for all you bring to this thread. I've learned a lot from your posts.
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GrapevineAg
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In reply to [removed post] • 7:56a, 4/8/22
AG
That's a great list, and I'd like to add the "ear test" for silver. Gently drop a silver coin on a hard surface like a countertop, or flick the edge of it with your fingernail - nothing rings like silver. Works even on 40% silver half dollars and 35% war nickels.
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In reply to GrapevineAg • 3:20p, 4/8/22
aunuwyn08
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7:07p, 4/8/22
AG
Ice melts extremely fast on silver.
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jagvocate
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7:21p, 4/10/22
AG
If your love of physical gold and silver extends into the miners, both GDX and GDXJ have quietly broken long term trends against gold itself, showing greater relative strength over the last few weeks and looking like the first leg of a multi-year bull uptrend.
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Outdoorag011
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9:43a, 4/11/22
"Do you still buy gold and silver"?

A text from a buddy this morning who has been anti precious metals ever since I've known him. Going to call him tonight to see what has changed in his view. He's been a 100% stock market guy. No real estate and he is much to traditional for crypto.
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Red Pear Realty
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1:07p, 4/11/22
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Anybody know the YOY returns of the S&P 500 compared to Gold/Silver?
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Esteban du Plantier
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 1:15p, 4/11/22
AG
Since when?
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Esteban du Plantier
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In reply to Outdoorag011 • 1:30p, 4/11/22
AG
Don't tell people you own precious metals.

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Red Pear Realty
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In reply to Esteban du Plantier • 2:57p, 4/11/22
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Year over year
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Esteban du Plantier
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In reply to Red Pear Realty • 4:23p, 4/11/22
AG
Red Pear Realty said:
Year over year


Gold up 12% vs a year vs SPY up 6%.

But why does that matter? Gold is not an investment so why compare to an investment?
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