I appreciate you saying that. Like I said, golders and bitcoiners are much more alike than different.
Buying physical gold/silver
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I haven't purchased gold or silver in some time and when I did I used TPM. I was looking today and spot prices of $75+. Is that the norm now? Is there a better place to look at to buy?
The black swan is someone mining gold from an asteroid like Psyche, bringing it home and the market implodes. My guess is that it happens in the next 50 years.Andrew Dufresne said:
It is important to remember this one thing: All of the easy to mine deposits of precious metal in the world have already been found, and mined. We are having to become increasingly more creative to pull Gold out of the ground.
You're assuming that there is ample supply of Gold ore out there just waiting to be mined. This is simply not the case. Remember this fun fact: All of the refined Gold discovered thus far would fit in a cube that is 23 meters wide on every side.
Au is pretty rare.
A Black Swan would be a gold meteorite landing on the family farm out of the clear blue.
Ag CPA said:The black swan is someone mining gold from an asteroid like Psyche, bringing it home and the market implodes. My guess is that it happens in the next 50 years.Andrew Dufresne said:
It is important to remember this one thing: All of the easy to mine deposits of precious metal in the world have already been found, and mined. We are having to become increasingly more creative to pull Gold out of the ground.
You're assuming that there is ample supply of Gold ore out there just waiting to be mined. This is simply not the case. Remember this fun fact: All of the refined Gold discovered thus far would fit in a cube that is 23 meters wide on every side.
Au is pretty rare.
16 Pysche is made up almost entirely of iron-nickel alloy.
Bitcoiners with their literal "pie in the sky" predictions about mining asteroids. Do you guys ever realize how insane y'all sound with this stuff? It's like the Hail Mary thing to throw out there when other arguments ain't working.
LMAO. Look bro, I'd love to bet you on your 50 year mark, unfortunately I'll be 85 in 50 years so I might not be around to collect all that dough from you.
Is there Gold in space? I'm sure there is.. But like on Earth, I'm willing to bet that Gold is very rare out there in the cosmos. Do you guys not realize how expensive it is just to simply go to space? Do you not factor in the input costs it would take to mine and then transport gold from outer space back to Earth?
Look my guy, we have trouble scouting out mines even here on Earth. LOTS of hope has been vanquished over the years when the data comes back showing low quality ore grades on a once promising site. But yeah, we'll be axing out asteroids for all their worth in no time.. and with optimal precision.
Knew this was a late-night drunk post two sentences in "bro".
I don't drink alcohol
Mining asteroids for gold sound more like the late night drink post…
You've seen too many movies if you think that is happening in the next 100 years.
I'm thinking that by the time we are mining asteroids with any efficiency we will also already be colonizing space (Mars, certain moons etc.)
A lot of extracted material will never come to Earth. Most would be used to further our colonization efforts.
A lot of extracted material will never come to Earth. Most would be used to further our colonization efforts.
Have any of y'all been paying attention to Palladium spot price lately? It's been hemorrhaging for a year straight. Almost down to $1K ounce troy.
I'm wondering where the bottom here is.
I'm wondering where the bottom here is.
Gold is surging
jagvocate said:
Question: was Volkers stated goal to hit an inflation target, ie 2% like this fed's, or was he shooting for deflation? He certainly wasn't trying for a soft landing.
Volcker was trying to break inflation by any means necessary. Inflation has to be destroyed root and branch and can take longer than many think to make it go away.
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jagvocate said:
Volcker was trying to break inflation by any means necessary. Inflation has to be destroyed root and branch and can take longer than many think to make it go away.
Volcker had the perfect Presidential administration to defeat inflation after one of the worst.
I'm not sure our broken country and aloof middle class and youth could stomach Reagan style cuts today. The difference today is they would need to be much larger and we would need to slash our burgeoning govt middle class overlords to the tune of 60 plus %.
I'm all for it, but the emotion over logic soccer mom and common senseless Gen Z would not.
Obama, Trump and Biden administrations were the death nails for this country. It started with Wilson and FDR but the end was accelerated big time due to the 21st century Presidents. Bush wasn't great, by any means, but these last three have been clown shows from a fiscal standpoint.
The four presidents with the worst deficits have been Barack Obama, Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan. Tax cuts are great, but if we don't (as you pointed out) absolutely rip the heart out of the Leviathan State by massive layoffs and spending cuts then pain is only delayed, not solved.
We will never take the tough medicine, our leaders will only tax and spend and deflate the currency further. Hence a great reason for this thread and precious metals!
We will never take the tough medicine, our leaders will only tax and spend and deflate the currency further. Hence a great reason for this thread and precious metals!
What " Reagan style cuts"?
I mean, I love Reagan as much as the next guy, but he increased federal spending and didn't cut anything. His budget director, David Stockman, finally threw up his hands and gave up after he realized that no one in the country really wanted to cut anything, no matter what they said.
Bush 41 was actually the guy who cut stuff, for all of the disdain shown to him now by conservatives. He cut the defense budget by 1/3. I know because I was there.
I mean, I love Reagan as much as the next guy, but he increased federal spending and didn't cut anything. His budget director, David Stockman, finally threw up his hands and gave up after he realized that no one in the country really wanted to cut anything, no matter what they said.
Bush 41 was actually the guy who cut stuff, for all of the disdain shown to him now by conservatives. He cut the defense budget by 1/3. I know because I was there.
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I should have been more specific… Reagan Admin cut social welfare programs immensely and cut Govt middle management jobs. I don't remember the exact number but it was LARGE for that time period and was well into the Billions.
What he increased was defense spending to defeat the Soviets. I can disagree with him on that as I come from the Thomas Massie wing of the party, but I understand why he did.
I can certainly live with a R president who only believes in Defense and gutting the Bureaucracy and Social programs.
Addressing deficits as an over arching holistic talking point is futile without talking about the finer details. Reagan absolutely did the right thing gutting social welfare and the middle manager in Government.
What he increased was defense spending to defeat the Soviets. I can disagree with him on that as I come from the Thomas Massie wing of the party, but I understand why he did.
I can certainly live with a R president who only believes in Defense and gutting the Bureaucracy and Social programs.
Addressing deficits as an over arching holistic talking point is futile without talking about the finer details. Reagan absolutely did the right thing gutting social welfare and the middle manager in Government.
Guys….. everything is fine! Nothing to see.
Love you, MFR, but I don't think Reagan cut anything. It's my recollection that he cut a deal with Tip O'Neill. The deal was that Reagan could spend whatever he wanted on defense and the Democrats could spend whatever they wanted on social programs.
Jabin said:
Love you, MFR, but I don't think Reagan cut anything. It's my recollection that he cut a deal with Tip O'Neill. The deal was that Reagan could spend whatever he wanted on defense and the Democrats could spend whatever they wanted on social programs.
Reagan definitely cut spending on mental health.
TAMU ‘98 Ole Miss ‘21
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I actually went digging on this.
Reagan cut $22 billion in social programs (mainly welfare and Unemployment benefits). He got there by promising Tip he would not gut SS (mistake, but I get it, an election issue). I believe they settled on raising the age and amount put in.
Yes, I remember reading Tip and the Gipper several years ago. It's not quite how that went.
Reagan cut $22 billion in social programs (mainly welfare and Unemployment benefits). He got there by promising Tip he would not gut SS (mistake, but I get it, an election issue). I believe they settled on raising the age and amount put in.
Yes, I remember reading Tip and the Gipper several years ago. It's not quite how that went.
Interesting. Live and learn.
The overall budget under Reagan continued to rise, a lot. Nothing by today's standards. But many conservatives such as myself were frustrated back then, asking ourselves if we can't control spending with Reagan as President, can we ever?
The overall budget under Reagan continued to rise, a lot. Nothing by today's standards. But many conservatives such as myself were frustrated back then, asking ourselves if we can't control spending with Reagan as President, can we ever?
Nope. A blank checkbook with a limitless supply of other peoples money (borrowed or taxed) gives no incentive to lessen spending.Quote:
if we can't control spending with Reagan as President, can we ever?
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It's a great question and it's why I feel that Woodrow Wilson and FDR were by far and away, the two worst Presidential Administrations ever!
I have a list of 8-9 but these two ruined America and created the Leviathan State that destroys us from the inside out.
It's a conversation over many drinks or coffees, for those that don't like the hard stuff, as it's wonky, but I love discussing this, especially with Leftists. I've converted a few when they hear it and digest it, but they were Liberal to begin with, and not the modern Leftist, who is illiberal.
I have a list of 8-9 but these two ruined America and created the Leviathan State that destroys us from the inside out.
It's a conversation over many drinks or coffees, for those that don't like the hard stuff, as it's wonky, but I love discussing this, especially with Leftists. I've converted a few when they hear it and digest it, but they were Liberal to begin with, and not the modern Leftist, who is illiberal.
https://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?id=6558
The above linked article is a good review of Gold and Silver relative to the S&P 500 and the looming debt crisis. TLDR: The S&P 500 bull is over, and precious metals are basing, possibly for the start of a new bull market of their own.
The above linked article is a good review of Gold and Silver relative to the S&P 500 and the looming debt crisis. TLDR: The S&P 500 bull is over, and precious metals are basing, possibly for the start of a new bull market of their own.
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I agree. I've upped my counterparty free buys 3X since early Q2. Mainly Precious metals and BTC.
I have purchased some hard farm assets too for our place that are hard to procure, but it's hard to say how much those would appreciate.
I have purchased some hard farm assets too for our place that are hard to procure, but it's hard to say how much those would appreciate.
I guess I'm trying to ask is if that fed and this fed had similar goals or not to get an idea if we can expect a similar three wave response from inflation. My kindergarten understanding of macro, and the post above all seem to agree with my feeling that we're not done with inflation by any means and we're certainly not going to go through a period of deflation anytime soon. 2019 prices may be gone forever.jagvocate said:
Volcker was trying to break inflation by any means necessary. Inflation has to be destroyed root and branch and can take longer than many think to make it go away.
It seems logical to me that since this fed didn't take the "destroy inflation at all cost" and went for the soft landing, combined with continued government spending, we're defiantly not going to be in a three wave period of inflation. Horrible stagflation with cost of living expenses continuing to skyrocket and asset prices that go through periods of softness and losses is our current path.
How long can we go down this road?
What will it take for this to go into hyperinflation?
Continued multi-trillion dollar deficits should do the trick.Quote:
What will it take for this to go into hyperinflation?
That's a great question, and one I've not heard or read a definitive answer to. My guess is that if the dollar ever stops being the world's currency standard, watch out. The only reason we're not in hyperinflation right now is because the dollar's value is essentially tied to the value of hard assets through international contracts.Quote:
What will it take for this to go into hyperinflation?
Great points. I look to Japan for clues. They've been a zombie for longer than any could have imagined.
Meanwhile, they are losing "control" of their yield curves, which will debase their currency further to fight, and eventually something will break.
In the meanwhile, holders of gold were protected better than holders of yen. Gold priced in yen was at an all time high last I checked.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-prices-090420231
Meanwhile, they are losing "control" of their yield curves, which will debase their currency further to fight, and eventually something will break.
In the meanwhile, holders of gold were protected better than holders of yen. Gold priced in yen was at an all time high last I checked.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-prices-090420231
AggieT said:Continued multi-trillion dollar deficits should do the trick.Quote:
What will it take for this to go into hyperinflation?
Once the US population realizes the US dollar jant being used for international transactions and that our own allies are selling off all their bonds. A quick gas or oil shortage due to conflict in US could speed up the panic buys and supply chain disruptions. But the good thing is we can flip most of these policies and situations once everyone is on the same page.
New poster here. Is there a good summary of this thread anywhere? Any pointers on figuring out what and when to buy?
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