I worry that Purdy got his bad game out of his system against Seattle.
Dallas Cowboy Season thread
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Think of it this way: your food poisoning will be a great way to cut excess water weight
Southlake said:
I worry that Purdy got his bad game out of his system against Seattle.
I felt like there were about 4 throws he had that could have been picked. We'll see. There is no doubt Shanahan makes things as easy as possible on his QBs
This game will be a close one. It could honestly go either way. If we can keep deebo and CMC in check and rattle Purdy we have a good chance to win this game.
The offense needs to keep doing what they're doing from Monday. Maybe establish the run more but if the offense plays like they did the cowboys have a chance in every game.
The offense needs to keep doing what they're doing from Monday. Maybe establish the run more but if the offense plays like they did the cowboys have a chance in every game.
Updated
There we go! I knew something was missing hahah!
Southlake said:
I worry that Purdy got his bad game out of his system against Seattle.
Got to remember though. That's also one more game of film.
No rookie QB has ever made it to the super bowl. I don't expect Brock Purdy to be the first. Cowboys roll!
How well you run the ball has almost no correlation with winning. SF gets you by making you think you have to devote a bunch of resources to stopping the run, and then playactioning you to death. And the play action effectiveness depends not on how well they run the ball but on how hard you try to stop the runChoppinDs40 said:I dunno. Best way to stop a pass rush is run right at it... and they can certainly do that, from multiple angles.PatAg said:
I just think our defense is going to command the game, and they won't be able to stop our offense.
They are the team with the glaring weakness at a crucial position, not us.
Really need Kearse back to get on Kittle. Trevon Diggs will be ole'ing out of the way once Deebo gets a full head of steam.
The key stopping them is daring them to run it every down for 5-7 YPC, and then watching their offensive efficiency plummet by either obliging you and falling into the fallacy of "you never punt if you x number of yards per snap" or by trying to play action pass into heavier coverage.
The reason their offense is so good is because most DCs just cant help themselves and bring extra guys into the box. Quinn has actually bee great at refusing to do this this season despite the outcry from the fanbase about the run defense, because he knows how games are won and lost.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Infection_Ag11 said:How well you run the ball has almost no correlation with winning. SF gets you by making you think you have to devote a bunch of resources to stopping the run, and then playactioning you to death. And the play action effectiveness depends not on how well they run the ball but on how hard you try to stop the runChoppinDs40 said:I dunno. Best way to stop a pass rush is run right at it... and they can certainly do that, from multiple angles.PatAg said:
I just think our defense is going to command the game, and they won't be able to stop our offense.
They are the team with the glaring weakness at a crucial position, not us.
Really need Kearse back to get on Kittle. Trevon Diggs will be ole'ing out of the way once Deebo gets a full head of steam.
The key stopping them is daring them to run it every down for 5-7 YPC, and then watching their offensive efficiency plummet by either obliging you and falling into the fallacy of "you never punt if you x number of yards per snap" or by trying to play action pass into heavier coverage.
The reason their offense is so good is because most DCs just cant help themselves and bring extra guys into the box. Quinn has actually bee great at refusing to do this this season despite the outcry from the fanbase about the run defense, because he knows how games are won and lost.
Ok there big shooter. A heavy dose of the run neutralizes our best attribute on defense and likely keeps us from being able to pin our ears back and do what we do best. Rush the passer.
Tampa was a great matchup for our D because they refuse to run the ball and just let us line up and come at them.
You could just say "well yeah but they can't just keep running it if we score a bunch". Then the other side comes in… SF D is the best in the league.
They have the true best combination for playoff football. Top ranked defense and a great running game. Sound familiar to you 90s cowboys fans out there?
The 49ers are a very good team, but I'm tired of the media acting like San Francisco should be this huge favorite.
I'll say this though......who have the 49ers beaten this season?
Most of their wins are against average to bad teams. Their best wins are against pretty good teams.
The last time they faced an elite team they got smoked.
The Cowboys have beaten 3 of the 8 teams still left in the playoffs.
One of the issues with the Cowboys playoff futility of the 2000's and the Romo era was that this franchise never pulled upsets in the playoffs. On the flipside there are plenty of post season losses where they were the favorite.
I would argue the 1992 NFC Championship game against San Francisco was the last time the Cowboy franchise had an overachieving post season performance and won a game they were not supposed to.
This 49ers team is beatable. If they can pull the upset on Sunday they can beat anyone else in the NFL.
I'll say this though......who have the 49ers beaten this season?
Most of their wins are against average to bad teams. Their best wins are against pretty good teams.
The last time they faced an elite team they got smoked.
The Cowboys have beaten 3 of the 8 teams still left in the playoffs.
One of the issues with the Cowboys playoff futility of the 2000's and the Romo era was that this franchise never pulled upsets in the playoffs. On the flipside there are plenty of post season losses where they were the favorite.
I would argue the 1992 NFC Championship game against San Francisco was the last time the Cowboy franchise had an overachieving post season performance and won a game they were not supposed to.
This 49ers team is beatable. If they can pull the upset on Sunday they can beat anyone else in the NFL.
I like Dallas on Sunday...
Play tight on the receivers and make Purdy beat you with precision passing while the pass rush is bearing down on him...
He's a rookie...
Play tight on the receivers and make Purdy beat you with precision passing while the pass rush is bearing down on him...
He's a rookie...
I'm still going into this one with cautious optimism, but I feel more confident going into this one compared to last year. As long as Dak keeps it clean and our pass rush pressures Purdy, I like our chances.
ChoppinDs40 said:Infection_Ag11 said:How well you run the ball has almost no correlation with winning. SF gets you by making you think you have to devote a bunch of resources to stopping the run, and then playactioning you to death. And the play action effectiveness depends not on how well they run the ball but on how hard you try to stop the runChoppinDs40 said:I dunno. Best way to stop a pass rush is run right at it... and they can certainly do that, from multiple angles.PatAg said:
I just think our defense is going to command the game, and they won't be able to stop our offense.
They are the team with the glaring weakness at a crucial position, not us.
Really need Kearse back to get on Kittle. Trevon Diggs will be ole'ing out of the way once Deebo gets a full head of steam.
The key stopping them is daring them to run it every down for 5-7 YPC, and then watching their offensive efficiency plummet by either obliging you and falling into the fallacy of "you never punt if you x number of yards per snap" or by trying to play action pass into heavier coverage.
The reason their offense is so good is because most DCs just cant help themselves and bring extra guys into the box. Quinn has actually bee great at refusing to do this this season despite the outcry from the fanbase about the run defense, because he knows how games are won and lost.
Ok there big shooter. A heavy dose of the run neutralizes our best attribute on defense and likely keeps us from being able to pin our ears back and do what we do best. Rush the passer.
Tampa was a great matchup for our D because they refuse to run the ball and just let us line up and come at them.
You could just say "well yeah but they can't just keep running it if we score a bunch". Then the other side comes in… SF D is the best in the league.
They have the true best combination for playoff football. Top ranked defense and a great running game. Sound familiar to you 90s cowboys fans out there?
But again, how well you run and stop the run don't correlate hardly at all with winning. SF is so good because their adjusted passing efficiency is third in the NFL, and they are #1 in the league in adjusted defensive passing efficiency. And those things aren't dependent on running the ball or stoping the run, statistically speaking.
You can run for 200 yards and hold your opponent to 50, you can still EASILY lose a modern NFL game if your opponent throws the ball much more explosively and efficiently than you do. The inverse of that essentially NEVER happens. If you throw the ball more efficiently and explosively beyond a certain threshold, you win virtually every time.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Kellso said:
The 49ers are a very good team, but I'm tired of the media acting like San Francisco should be this huge favorite.
I'll say this though......who have the 49ers beaten this season?
Most of their wins are against average to bad teams. Their best wins are against pretty good teams.
The last time they faced an elite team they got smoked.
The Cowboys have beaten 3 of the 8 teams still left in the playoffs.
One of the issues with the Cowboys playoff futility of the 2000's and the Romo era was that this franchise never pulled upsets in the playoffs. On the flipside there are plenty of post season losses where they were the favorite.
I would argue the 1992 NFC Championship game against San Francisco was the last time the Cowboy franchise had an overachieving post season performance and won a game they were not supposed to.
This 49ers team is beatable. If they can pull the upset on Sunday they can beat anyone else in the NFL.
The 49ers are playing with fire because all it takes for them to lose is one half of football of Brock Purdy playing like what he is, a seventh round rookie.
It doesn't matter how well they run the ball or stop the run, if Dak plays anywhere close to the way he did on Monday and Purdy finally has a rookie performance they will almost certainly lose. The team that throws the ball more efficiently wins playoff games almost 85% of the time.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
SF is stout in the front 7. It's their defense and not their offense, in my opinion. Yes, I know their secondary is average, but they aren't the #1 defense in the NFL for nothing. It will likely come down to which Prescott shows up. If they get a lot of pressure on him, he normally plays horribly (as do many QBs).
And I don't feel like SF is the best team left. Those (at least two of them) are on the AFC side, in my opinion. Philly is probably equally as good as SF (their offense is probably better if Hurts is playing) and their defense is a lot better than it has been in recent seasons.
And I don't feel like SF is the best team left. Those (at least two of them) are on the AFC side, in my opinion. Philly is probably equally as good as SF (their offense is probably better if Hurts is playing) and their defense is a lot better than it has been in recent seasons.
Ag12thman said:
SF is stout in the front 7. It's their defense and not their offense, in my opinion. Yes, I know their secondary is average, but they aren't the #1 defense in the NFL for nothing. It will likely come down to which Prescott shows up. If they get a lot of pressure on him, he normally plays horribly (as do many QBs).
And I don't feel like SF is the best team left. Those (at least two of them) are on the AFC side, in my opinion. Philly is probably equally as good as SF (their offense is better) and their defense is a lot better than it has been in recent seasons.
Depends on how you generate pressure
Dak Prescott is statistically one of the best QBs in league history when he is blitzed, even if the blitz works and generates pressure. Where he struggles is pressure generated WITHOUT bringing extra guys, where he's just slightly above l ache average in that scenario.
Teams have largely moved away from blitzing Dallas since midway through last season. The Cowboys are the third least blitzed team in the league the last year and a half.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
You're just letting statistics cloud HOW they're so efficient.Infection_Ag11 said:
But again, how well you run and stop the run don't correlate hardly at all with winning. SF is so good because their adjusted passing efficiency is third in the NFL, and they are #1 in the league in adjusted defensive passing efficiency. And those things aren't dependent on running the ball or stoping the run, statistically speaking.
You can run for 200 yards and hold your opponent to 50, you can still EASILY lose a modern NFL game if your opponent throws the ball much more explosively and efficiently than you do. The inverse of that essentially NEVER happens. If you throw the ball more efficiently and explosively beyond a certain threshold, you win virtually every time.
Why do you think they're so efficient throwing the ball? because they RUN the damn ball and use play action and also get a lot of man coverage. No one plays coverage vs. SF because they'll eat you alive running the ball. They also have guys that do house calls once in the secondary. No DB in the league wants to tackle Deebo.
How is their D so good at pass efficiency? well probably because they stop the run and teams are put in 3rd and longs a bunch and then Nick Bosa and crew get to pin their ears back.
It all goes back to running the ball and stopping the run.
Sure yeah, some teams out there light it up in the air and don't run it... those are rare and then sometimes that game doesn't travel. KC is different because their quick passing game is just an extension of the running game.
I thought the trade for Kadarius Toney was genius. Terrible fit in NY but absolutely perfect for the KC offense. If he stays healthy and head on straight, he'll be their #2 target next year behind Kelce.
Kellso said:
The 49ers are a very good team, but I'm tired of the media acting like San Francisco should be this huge favorite.
I'll say this though......who have the 49ers beaten this season?
Most of their wins are against average to bad teams. Their best wins are against pretty good teams.
The last time they faced an elite team they got smoked.
The Cowboys have beaten 3 of the 8 teams still left in the playoffs.
One of the issues with the Cowboys playoff futility of the 2000's and the Romo era was that this franchise never pulled upsets in the playoffs. On the flipside there are plenty of post season losses where they were the favorite.
I would argue the 1992 NFC Championship game against San Francisco was the last time the Cowboy franchise had an overachieving post season performance and won a game they were not supposed to.
This 49ers team is beatable. If they can pull the upset on Sunday they can beat anyone else in the NFL.
Very good point. If you look back at their schedule, they have probably played two top flight offenses. KC made them look silly and the Chargers. Herbert didn't have a great game.
I think the Cowboys are going to challenge SF 100%.
I think this game will mostly be decided by the Cowboys offense versus the 49ers defense. If SF holds the Dallas running game in check and can generate enough pressure without blitzing, then the Cowboys offense is in trouble. That will lead to turnovers or short fields off a punt. I think SF should be able to run on Dallas and will grind out 150-200 yards rushing. But If SF is having to drive against long fields or play from behind then I don't think it will lead to big points.
Quote:
Why do you think they're so efficient throwing the ball? because they RUN the damn ball and use play action and also get a lot of man coverage. No one plays coverage vs. SF because they'll eat you alive running the ball. They also have guys that do house calls once in the secondary. No DB in the league wants to tackle Deebo.
You aren't reading my posts, the data CLEARLY shows this isn't true. How well you run the ball has virtually no correlation with passing efficiency. All that matters is that you TRY to run the ball a certain number of times. You can run for 2.5 YPC or 7 YPC on those attempts, it hardly impacts your efficiency throwing the ball across time at all. The only time running impacts passing efficiency is once you get below a certain run/pass ratio.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Quote:
Sure yeah, some teams out there light it up in the air and don't run it... those are rare and then sometimes that game doesn't travel.
This isn't true at all. Here are the rushing efficiency rankings of the top 5 passing efficiency offenses this year.
9th
16th
2nd
23rd
8th
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Kellso, I liked your "they are beatable" post. The NFC West was pretty bad this year! LA and ARZ were lifeless most of the season... Seattle got 4 wins off those 2 teams and was the only reason they were in the playoffs. 6 of SF's 13 wins were all NFC West wins. The only top 5 elite team SF played all year (KC) absolutely smoked them.
It's hard to win in the NFL and their win streak is very impressive. They have earned the right to be a team nobody wants to face right now... but they are not unbeatable and I hope Dallas is able to prove on Sunday that they are not the best team in the NFC.
And as a final note... I guarantee you SF is not happy about having to play us either. No doubt they also wanted MN to win their game so that we'd go to Philly.
It's hard to win in the NFL and their win streak is very impressive. They have earned the right to be a team nobody wants to face right now... but they are not unbeatable and I hope Dallas is able to prove on Sunday that they are not the best team in the NFC.
And as a final note... I guarantee you SF is not happy about having to play us either. No doubt they also wanted MN to win their game so that we'd go to Philly.
SF's wins this season:
4-13 Arizona (x2)
6-11 Las Vegas (OT)
8-8-1 Washington
9-8 Seattle (x3)
8-9 Tampa Bay
9-8 Miami
7-10 New Orleans
10-7 Los Angeles Chargers
7-10 Carolina
5-12 Los Angeles Rams
So they have wins over 3 teams with winning records, and their best win was against the 10-7 Chargers, and the win % of their competition was 39% overall...
DAL wins this season:
7-10 Tennessee
14-3 Philadelphia
3-13-1 Houston
4-12-1 Indianapolis
9-7-1 New York Giants (x2)
13-4 Minnesota
3-14 Chicago
9-8 Detroit
5-12 Los Angeles Rams
8-8-1 Washington
12-4 Cincinnati
8-9 Tampa Bay
So they have wins over 5 teams with winning records, and their best wins were Philly, Cincy, and Minnesota, and the win % of their competition overall was 47%...
Without question, DAL had a harder row to hoe this year...finishing with a SOS ranked 20th, while SF finished with a SOS ranked 32nd...
Bottom line, DAL has been more tested this season, and came away significantly more notable wins, than has SF...
Interestingly, the team with the second easiest schedule this year (SOS ranked #31) was....Philadelphia...
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
4-13 Arizona (x2)
6-11 Las Vegas (OT)
8-8-1 Washington
9-8 Seattle (x3)
8-9 Tampa Bay
9-8 Miami
7-10 New Orleans
10-7 Los Angeles Chargers
7-10 Carolina
5-12 Los Angeles Rams
So they have wins over 3 teams with winning records, and their best win was against the 10-7 Chargers, and the win % of their competition was 39% overall...
DAL wins this season:
7-10 Tennessee
14-3 Philadelphia
3-13-1 Houston
4-12-1 Indianapolis
9-7-1 New York Giants (x2)
13-4 Minnesota
3-14 Chicago
9-8 Detroit
5-12 Los Angeles Rams
8-8-1 Washington
12-4 Cincinnati
8-9 Tampa Bay
So they have wins over 5 teams with winning records, and their best wins were Philly, Cincy, and Minnesota, and the win % of their competition overall was 47%...
Without question, DAL had a harder row to hoe this year...finishing with a SOS ranked 20th, while SF finished with a SOS ranked 32nd...
Bottom line, DAL has been more tested this season, and came away significantly more notable wins, than has SF...
Interestingly, the team with the second easiest schedule this year (SOS ranked #31) was....Philadelphia...
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other
Also remember the Miami game was without Tua, and the Chargers thoroughly outplayed them for 3.5 quarters.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
Infection_Ag11 said:Ag12thman said:
SF is stout in the front 7. It's their defense and not their offense, in my opinion. Yes, I know their secondary is average, but they aren't the #1 defense in the NFL for nothing. It will likely come down to which Prescott shows up. If they get a lot of pressure on him, he normally plays horribly (as do many QBs).
And I don't feel like SF is the best team left. Those (at least two of them) are on the AFC side, in my opinion. Philly is probably equally as good as SF (their offense is better) and their defense is a lot better than it has been in recent seasons.
Depends on how you generate pressure
Dak Prescott is statistically one of the best QBs in league history when he is blitzed, even if the blitz works and generates pressure. Where he struggles is pressure generated WITHOUT bringing extra guys, where he's just slightly above l ache average in that scenario.
Teams have largely moved away from blitzing Dallas since midway through last season. The Cowboys are the third least blitzed team in the league the last year and a half.
Sounds like if the o-line can somewhat neutralize the SF d-line and force them to blitz that there will be plays to be made. I feel a lot better about that possibility with everyone on the o-line being back at their normal spots. Rushing yards are going to be hard to come by. This feels like a game where Dak is going to have to carry the team to win.
Cowboys are gonna kick some '9er ass!
aggiephoenix02 said:
Cowboys are gonna kick some '9er ass!
I hope so. Listening to Steve Young blabbering about the Cowboys in the pre game show the other night reminded me how much I hated the 49ers in the 90's. The dude is still butthurt about the 92 game.
Everyone believed the 49ers were the better team in 92...Young was dying to get Joe's "monkey" off his back...Hubert J. Farnsworth said:aggiephoenix02 said:
Cowboys are gonna kick some '9er ass!
I hope so. Listening to Steve Young blabbering about the Cowboys in the pre game show the other night reminded me how much I hated the 49ers in the 90's. The dude is still butthurt about the 92 game.
He had to wait 2 more years, and frankly, if Jimmy and Jerry could have gotten along, he may not have ever gotten on top...
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has had a passing and rushing touchdown in four straight playoff games.
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) January 18, 2023
He is the only player in NFL history to do this.
I never could stand Steve Young and still can't. He just talks like he believes he's the smartest dude to ever been born.
Being a descendant of Brigham Young will do that.
What Dak did in Tampa, he's going to have to do 3 more times if we want to win the SB. Doesn't have to be perfect, but that version of Dak needs to show up.
If Eli Manning could get red hot and be unstoppable in the playoffs (twice... and I still can't believe it) then so can Dak.
If Eli Manning could get red hot and be unstoppable in the playoffs (twice... and I still can't believe it) then so can Dak.
I wouldn't say Eli got hot... they scored 17 and 21 points to win those 2 superbowls... Dak just had 5 TDs in 1 game.
Dak needs to be good to really good but most of all... we've got to MAKE OUR KICKS, not turn the ball over, and Defense show up.
If we can play an above average game in all phases, we can beat anyone. Play poorly in one phase and we're likely toast.
Dak needs to be good to really good but most of all... we've got to MAKE OUR KICKS, not turn the ball over, and Defense show up.
If we can play an above average game in all phases, we can beat anyone. Play poorly in one phase and we're likely toast.
Tua played that day, but he did have a bad game. I remember because I lost my fantasy football matchup that week, and would've won if I had started Dak instead of Tua. Apparently that was also the game where Jimmy G got hurt.Infection_Ag11 said:
Also remember the Miami game was without Tua, and the Chargers thoroughly outplayed them for 3.5 quarters.
I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about this weekend. We've got the "lose a wild card game we shouldn't" monkey off our back, and now no one is giving us much of a chance against the Niners, which could be a great motivator.
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