Florida Early Voting
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Last: 4 yr ago by Maacus
They're not....they will be voting at a HIGHER clip.P.U.T.U said:The dems have 20,000 more outstanding votes, if that is it and more republicans vote in person this race is done. The key is the republicans have to vote at a similar rate as they have been doing all day.Captn_Ag05 said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wg9gjwErFjhMb-IlbnuA5c50rPKtqYXaUGm-iTJMr-E/edit#gid=63049609
R's have cast 179,470 more ballots than Dems.
nm
On a normal year, I still think they outpace the dems with the after work vote. If so game over. A lot of early votes but dems had more with the republicans clearing house this year on election day.Prosperdick said:They're not....they will be voting at a HIGHER clip.P.U.T.U said:The dems have 20,000 more outstanding votes, if that is it and more republicans vote in person this race is done. The key is the republicans have to vote at a similar rate as they have been doing all day.Captn_Ag05 said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wg9gjwErFjhMb-IlbnuA5c50rPKtqYXaUGm-iTJMr-E/edit#gid=63049609
R's have cast 179,470 more ballots than Dems.
I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world - there's no one who would personally call me to account), but he will still be our POTUS and life will go on.Prosperdick said:Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.DTP02 said:Hood said:
GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!
"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Also I don't recall deifying Silver or Lord Fauci, much less feel the need to be ashamed for some third party's work. If anyone needs to be ashamed about Fauci it's POTUS, since he's the one that put him on the White House Corona Virus task force and let him preside as its unofficial spokesman to date. But if anyone doesn't feel shame as part of their nature, well, ahem.
They are good with numbers.
Florida's a slam dunk. Trump won't even need the late panhandle votes.
I want some data on Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Arizona.
I want some data on Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Arizona.
198K now!
Florida not in the bag yet. Independent voters are huge here.
Based on current numbers:
Hypothetical (just one out of a gazillion scenarios):
Indies (2,484,588) split evenly.
Trump flips 2% of registered Dems.
Biden flips 4.1% of registered GOP (yes, I know
).
Result:
Trump 5,273,334
Biden 5,273,044\
Virtual tie.
A lot of polls going toward a Biden win in Florida are doing so because they think he has a good chunk of the independent voters. If that happens then he could still win FL even with GOP surge.
Hypothetical:
Biden wins 55% of independent vote.
Other voters all stay with their registered party for the most part (unrealistic, but that seems to be the assumption of a LOT of these twitter posts).
Result:
Biden 5,302,722
Trump 5,243,655
Need to get that lead BIGGER!
Based on current numbers:
Hypothetical (just one out of a gazillion scenarios):
Indies (2,484,588) split evenly.
Trump flips 2% of registered Dems.
Biden flips 4.1% of registered GOP (yes, I know
).Result:
Trump 5,273,334
Biden 5,273,044\
Virtual tie.
A lot of polls going toward a Biden win in Florida are doing so because they think he has a good chunk of the independent voters. If that happens then he could still win FL even with GOP surge.
Hypothetical:
Biden wins 55% of independent vote.
Other voters all stay with their registered party for the most part (unrealistic, but that seems to be the assumption of a LOT of these twitter posts).
Result:
Biden 5,302,722
Trump 5,243,655
Need to get that lead BIGGER!
It seems like 175k vote lead is irrelevant with a couple million NPA's hanging out there? What am I missing?
They broke for DJT in 2016. Doubt it changes much this time.Oruc Reis said:
It seems like 175k vote lead is irrelevant with a couple million NPA's hanging out there? What am I missing?
For someone who doesn't feel shame....5 edit posts!Faustus said:I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world - there's no one who would personally call me to account), but he will still be our POTUS and life will go on.Prosperdick said:Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.DTP02 said:Hood said:
GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!
"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Also I don't recall deifying Silver or Lord Fauci, much less feel the need to be ashamed for some third party's work. If anyone needs to be ashamed about Fauci it's POTUS, since he's the one that put him on the White House Corona Virus task force and let him preside as its unofficial spokesman to date. But if anyone doesn't feel shame as part of their nature, well, ahem.
That's what my scenarios are getting at. If Biden wins 55% of the current NPA and no one jumps ships from other parties in any significant way he GAINS almost 250k votes on Trump.Oruc Reis said:
It seems like 175k vote lead is irrelevant with a couple million NPA's hanging out there? What am I missing?
You assume NPAs are moderates. If the Trump GOTV effort is bussing these NPA to polling stations, they have the hard numbers of how many votes they have.
If they were +4 in 2016, you are talking about a 14 point swing going to -10 in 2020...thats a monumental shift and highly unlikely.
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The panhandle alone is going to push this into the 230ish area. That doesn't include the limp dick part of Florida and the 2 more hours there.
Faustus said:I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world.Prosperdick said:Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.DTP02 said:Hood said:
GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!
"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Such a Beta.
Sometimes I get upwards of 10 edits on a post. I shoot from the hip and then worry at 'em.Prosperdick said:For someone who doesn't feel shame....5 edit posts!Faustus said:I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world - there's no one who would personally call me to account), but he will still be our POTUS and life will go on.Prosperdick said:Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.DTP02 said:Hood said:
GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!
"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Also I don't recall deifying Silver or Lord Fauci, much less feel the need to be ashamed for some third party's work. If anyone needs to be ashamed about Fauci it's POTUS, since he's the one that put him on the White House Corona Virus task force and let him preside as its unofficial spokesman to date. But if anyone doesn't feel shame as part of their nature, well, ahem.
I should have gone with
"POTUS put this guy on his task force and let him be its spokesman through today, and you;re going to hang the shame of that on me?"
Much more pithy.
That would be a 14 point swing from 2016? No way.Quote:
Hypothetical:
Biden wins 55% of independent vote.
Other voters all stay with their registered party for the most part (unrealistic, but that seems to be the assumption of a LOT of these twitter posts).
"And liberals, being liberals, will double down on failure." - dedgod
trying to find the 2016 data, link?
Doh! Wait, am I supposed to be able to feel shame or not?Ol_Ag_02 said:Faustus said:I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world.Prosperdick said:Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.DTP02 said:Hood said:
GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!
"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Such a Beta.
I think the lesson here is that I'm supposed to feel shame for Silver and Lord Fauci, and not POTUS.
The unaffiliated voters are not going to break that way. Definitely not with the showing of enthusiasm over the last several months. Best bet for Ds is they break even with them. But I think they will break 4-6 points towards Rs. Just a gut feeling on that though
You do not have a soul. You are a soul that has a body.
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
We sing Hallelujah! The Lamb has overcome!
So in an election where the GOP turnout is overperforming and the Dem turnout is underperforming, and where the GOP had a massive move in newly registered voters, you think the independents that went +4% for Trump last time are going to go higher than that for Biden this time? After all the evidence of a huge enthusiasm gap towards Trump, that is the message you take from all of that?Cactus Jack said:That's what my scenarios are getting at. If Biden wins 55% of the current NPA and no one jumps ships from other parties in any significant way he GAINS almost 250k votes on Trump.Oruc Reis said:
It seems like 175k vote lead is irrelevant with a couple million NPA's hanging out there? What am I missing?
And they probably do. Trump campaign seems awfully happy with Florida. Biden campaign is talking about alternate paths without Florida. It's true the Democrats can win without Florida but it becomes harder and Florida is a bell weather state for other demographic groups throughout the battleground states.
Fauci has essentially been in that role since the Reagan administration...can you imagine the howling of the media if he wasn't placed on the task force. Trump didn't have any choice and for better or worse listened to his recommendations. It's what Biden, who you voted for, would have done too.Faustus said:Sometimes I get upwards of 10 edits on a post. I shoot from the hip and then worry at 'em.Prosperdick said:For someone who doesn't feel shame....5 edit posts!Faustus said:I will be a little bit ashamed if POTUS is re-elected (but only as it reflects on us as a country to the world - there's no one who would personally call me to account), but he will still be our POTUS and life will go on.Prosperdick said:Sounds like he paused his FIFA soccer video game to giddily post some positive news. What a joke that moron is and libs should be ashamed they deified him like they did lord fauci but libs never feel shame, it's part of their nature.DTP02 said:Hood said:
GUYS! TAP TEH BRAKES!
"Listen, I'm not going to get into these Florida early voting numbers at all, because there's really no point. But here's a slight trend in one county I found that might make a tiny difference in the projected totals if it continues to grow!"
Also I don't recall deifying Silver or Lord Fauci, much less feel the need to be ashamed for some third party's work. If anyone needs to be ashamed about Fauci it's POTUS, since he's the one that put him on the White House Corona Virus task force and let him preside as its unofficial spokesman to date. But if anyone doesn't feel shame as part of their nature, well, ahem.
I should have gone with
"POTUS put this guy on his task force and let him be its spokesman through today, and your going to hang the shame of that on me?"
Much more pithy.
Exactly. I remember watching the returns in 2016, and the returns in FL were the first sign of trouble for Hillary. Trump appeals to people in FL for the same exact reason he appeals to them in PA especially.aginresearch said:
And they probably do. Trump campaign seems awfully happy with Florida. Biden campaign is talking about alternate paths without Florida. It's true the Democrats can win without Florida but it becomes harder and Florida is a bell weather state for other demographic groups throughout the battleground states.
Mostly Foggy Recollection
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Watch Marion county for a good representation of the rust belt states.
If Florida gets called before the polls close, does anyone actually think Florida is some sort of bubble? Some one-off?aginresearch said:
And they probably do. Trump campaign seems awfully happy with Florida. Biden campaign is talking about alternate paths without Florida. It's true the Democrats can win without Florida but it becomes harder and Florida is a bell weather state for other demographic groups throughout the battleground states.