American Hardwood said:

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The conventional wisdom for all of these predictions to work is that R's will outpace D's significantly on ED. But, so much conventional wisdom has gone out the window in this crazy election. How do we really know that R's will significantly outvote D's on election day?

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Don't overlook the Dem crossover vote and the fact that Johnson is not on the ballot. R's are smarter about the perils of VBM.

aggiehawg said:

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American Hardwood said:

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The conventional wisdom for all of these predictions to work is that R's will outpace D's significantly on ED. But, so much conventional wisdom has gone out the window in this crazy election. How do we really know that R's will significantly outvote D's on election day?

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Don't overlook the Dem crossover vote and the fact that Johnson is not on the ballot. R's are smarter about the perils of VBM.

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R's also aren't deathly afraid of a virus with a 99.9% survival rate for the vast majority of voting public. Also, traditionally R's always out perform D's on election day but yes, 2020 is different.

Dumb_Loggy said:

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The thing is, Trump could absolutely kill it in FL, but still lose overall (Clinton did it). I'm going to be cautiously optimistic until I see what happens in NC and the rust belt.

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That could happen, yes, but I agree with the previous poster that said this result would support the idea that the polling has been just flat wrong.

GA will be another indicator.

aggiehawg said:

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American Hardwood said:

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The conventional wisdom for all of these predictions to work is that R's will outpace D's significantly on ED. But, so much conventional wisdom has gone out the window in this crazy election. How do we really know that R's will significantly outvote D's on election day?

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Don't overlook the Dem crossover vote and the fact that Johnson is not on the ballot. R's are smarter about the perils of VBM.

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Oh I am not overlooking the crossover. I've posted that point on other threads. My only question is the validity of the assumption that D's won't show up on ED.

D's total early vote lead just dropped to 245,912. Was about 289,000 when I looked this morning.

American Hardwood said:

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The conventional wisdom for all of these predictions to work is that R's will outpace D's significantly on ED. But, so much conventional wisdom has gone out the window in this crazy election. How do we really know that R's will significantly outvote D's on election day?

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Here's a poll from pew research.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/08/americans-expectations-about-voting-in-2020-presidential-election-are-colored-by-partisan-differences/

Early/VBM vs. Election Day
Democrats = 75% vs 23%
Republicans = 37% vs. 60%

That's a significant margin on election day. That's why everyone is saying democrats need big leads going into election day. Much bigger than the leads they had in 2016. Te margins favoring Republicans on election day will be dramatic. This poll has been confirmed as well with the numbers we are seeing coming in.

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My only question is the validity of the assumption that D's won't show up on ED.

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The Dem sheeple drank the covid Kool Aid heavily, is my view. Plus they tend to be lazier and can't be bothered to actually go to the polls.

Gonna make it harder in some states to pull those water logged, hidden boxes of ballots to try to catch up.

I think it is important to watch where the NPA vote goes in Florida. If it breaks +20 to the democrats it's going to be a problem. If it's around +10 for the democrats then the republicans probably pull out a very close victory. Anything around 50/50 or + for the republicans means blowout for the republicans if current trends hold.

I've pulled the cross tabs from the most recent FAU poll. It has Biden up +2. The cross tabs are a bit wonky because categories are not totaling like they should but whatever. I'm looking for their breakouts on independents to see if there is a breakout one way or another. Their cross tabs show independents breaking out as follows: 116 - Biden / 112 - Trump. From that we get a 51%D - 49%R trend for independents. This is not showing a major break towards the democrats. If that is true then their vote totals will be mostly a wash.

It's looking increasingly like this is a base turnout election. If the republicans maintain current trajectory then by close of polls on Sunday they should be within 50k votes of the democrats. Add in the small number of votes the democrats will pickup from NPA voters and your looking at a ~70k lead on election for the democrats. It will all come down to election day turnout. If the republicans blow the doors off on election day as expected then they will win this election even with a slight shift of independents to the democrats.

The cross tabs indicate that 80% will cast their votes early with 20% remaining on election day. It also indicates that the election day breakdown of voters will be 42%R / 29%D / 29%I. That would yield a +~247k republican margin on election day (I am assuming roughly 1.9 million votes cast in FL on election day). If you calculate the NPAs into the margins with their lean from above it reduces the republican margin to +~236k. I am skeptical of this election day breakdown based upon the apparent cannibalization of election day democrat voters already underway, but we'll see what happens. That would yield a +150k republican registered voter advantage overall for Florida.

aginresearch said:

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I think it is important to watch where the NPA vote goes in Florida. If it breaks +20 to the democrats it's going to be a problem. If it's around +10 for the democrats then the republicans probably pull out a very close victory. Anything around 50/50 or + for the republicans means blowout for the republicans if current trends hold.

I've pulled the cross tabs from the most recent FAU poll. It has Biden up +2. The cross tabs are a bit wonky because categories are not totaling like they should but whatever. I'm looking for their breakouts on independents to see if there is a breakout one way or another. Their cross tabs show independents breaking out as follows: 116 - Biden / 112 - Trump. From that we get a 51%D - 49%R trend for independents. This is not showing a major break towards the democrats. If that is true then their vote totals will be mostly a wash.

It's looking increasingly like this is a base turnout election. If the republicans maintain current trajectory then by close of polls on Sunday they should be within 50k votes of the democrats. Add in the small number of votes the democrats will pickup from NPA voters and your looking at a ~70k lead on election for the democrats. It will all come down to election day turnout. If the republicans blow the doors off on election day as expected then they will win this election even with a slight shift of independents to the democrats.

The cross tabs indicate that 80% will cast their votes early with 20% remaining on election day. It also indicates that the election day breakdown of voters will be 42%R / 29%D / 29%I. That would yield a +~247k republican margin on election day (I am assuming roughly 1.9 million votes cast in FL on election day). If you calculate the NPAs into the margins with their lean from above it reduces the republican margin to +~236k. I am skeptical of this election day breakdown based upon the apparent cannibalization of election day democrat voters already underway, but we'll see what happens. That would yield a +150k republican registered voter advantage overall for Florida.

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as for NPA votes joeisdone has the split currently at +6 D. Now this isn't based on any polling rather than looking at each county R/D split and assigning that to the NPA votes. This number is going down every time the map is updated

Yup I am aware of that. Once all the early votes are in that metric will be very close to the number I derived from the FAU poll. Either way it is not enough NPA votes for the democrats to swing the election if the current trends hold and republicans turn out on election day.

Prosperdick said:

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Folks also need to realize there have been 190K more R's registered in the state than D's since 2016 so although we keep using the totals from 2016 as a guide there's almost a 200K cushion of additional Republican registrations.

Also I keep hearing many R's will flip to D because they're mad about Covid but considering Florida is basically open now and DeSantis is very popular I have a hard time believing that narrative.

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And in 2018, DeDantis and Rick Scott were supposed to lose. They won.

aginresearch said:

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I think it is important to watch where the NPA vote goes in Florida. If it breaks +20 to the democrats it's going to be a problem. If it's around +10 for the democrats then the republicans probably pull out a very close victory. Anything around 50/50 or + for the republicans means blowout for the republicans if current trends hold.

I've pulled the cross tabs from the most recent FAU poll. It has Biden up +2. The cross tabs are a bit wonky because categories are not totaling like they should but whatever. I'm looking for their breakouts on independents to see if there is a breakout one way or another. Their cross tabs show independents breaking out as follows: 116 - Biden / 112 - Trump. From that we get a 51%D - 49%R trend for independents. This is not showing a major break towards the democrats. If that is true then their vote totals will be mostly a wash.

It's looking increasingly like this is a base turnout election. If the republicans maintain current trajectory then by close of polls on Sunday they should be within 50k votes of the democrats. Add in the small number of votes the democrats will pickup from NPA voters and your looking at a ~70k lead on election for the democrats. It will all come down to election day turnout. If the republicans blow the doors off on election day as expected then they will win this election even with a slight shift of independents to the democrats.

The cross tabs indicate that 80% will cast their votes early with 20% remaining on election day. It also indicates that the election day breakdown of voters will be 42%R / 29%D / 29%I. That would yield a +~247k republican margin on election day (I am assuming roughly 1.9 million votes cast in FL on election day). If you calculate the NPAs into the margins with their lean from above it reduces the republican margin to +~236k. I am skeptical of this election day breakdown based upon the apparent cannibalization of election day democrat voters already underway, but we'll see what happens. That would yield a +150k republican registered voter advantage overall for Florida.

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Username checks out.

JB99 said:

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American Hardwood said:

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The conventional wisdom for all of these predictions to work is that R's will outpace D's significantly on ED. But, so much conventional wisdom has gone out the window in this crazy election. How do we really know that R's will significantly outvote D's on election day?

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Here's a poll from pew research.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/08/americans-expectations-about-voting-in-2020-presidential-election-are-colored-by-partisan-differences/

Early/VBM vs. Election Day
Democrats = 75% vs 23%
Republicans = 37% vs. 60%

That's a significant margin on election day. That's why everyone is saying democrats need big leads going into election day. Much bigger than the leads they had in 2016. Te margins favoring Republicans on election day will be dramatic. This poll has been confirmed as well with the numbers we are seeing coming in.

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If the FL turnout is 10,000,000, with 7,000,000 ballots already cast the Republicans need to win the remaining voters by +7.8%. Currently Reps lead in person early vote by +13.3%. The pew research above shows an Election Day margin of +23%.

In order to tie the current Dem lead of 231k ballots cast, assuming a R +23% margin on Election Day, then that means there only needs to be an Election Day turnout of 1,005,056 people.

I expect Election Day turnout to be closer to 1.5 to 2 million on the low end and 3+ million on the high end, and democrats to have an even smaller lead on Election Day than they do now.

The data is looking very grim for Biden, and great for Trump.

American Hardwood said:

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The conventional wisdom for all of these predictions to work is that R's will outpace D's significantly on ED. But, so much conventional wisdom has gone out the window in this crazy election. How do we really know that R's will significantly outvote D's on election day?

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I hate to cite the polls, but they have shown that the R's will outvote the D's on election day by high numbers. That has been pretty consistent.

You have to wonder though how many people decided to vote early after thinking they were going to wait for election day? I think the convenience of not having to wait in line forever is a big selling point.

Cactus Jack said:

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You have to wonder though how many people decided to vote early after thinking they were going to wait for election day? I think the convenience of not having to wait in line forever is a big selling point.

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Us patriots wait for election day.

aggiehawg said:

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Prosperdick said:

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Folks also need to realize there have been 190K more R's registered in the state than D's since 2016 so although we keep using the totals from 2016 as a guide there's almost a 200K cushion of additional Republican registrations.

Also I keep hearing many R's will flip to D because they're mad about Covid but considering Florida is basically open now and DeSantis is very popular I have a hard time believing that narrative.

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And in 2018, DeDantis and Rick Scott were supposed to lose. They won.

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Which could turn out to be YUGE for this election if Trump wins. I don't think Trump would win Florida if both of them lost because they would have a liberal governor doing everything he could to help the libs in regards to mail in ballots and covid.

DeSantis and Scott won by like 10k votes each, which is crazy. That could turn out to largely affect the 2020 Presidential race.

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Which could turn out to be YUGE for this election if Trump wins. I don't think Trump would win Florida if both of them lost because they would have a liberal governor doing everything he could to help the libs in regards to mail in ballots and covid.

DeSantis and Scott won by like 10k votes each, which is crazy. That could turn out to largely affect the 2020 Presidential race.

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Precisely. Florida would still be shut down if DeSantis wasn't governor. And VBM would be crazy, filled with governor issued EOs.

Early voting in Lee County FL has been pretty big. All of the conservatives in my circle have already voted. I don't know anyone waiting for election day, so I hope the gap is small or erased.

As I was typing this: a volunteer with Stampede America knocked on my door. Gave him some good news and a Gatorade for the rest of his walking.

Current early voting wait times have calmed down. Some were 1.5 hours last week:

All the early vote sunshine pumping (not just FL) is getting my hopes up and triggering my PTSD from 2018. I may need go lock myself in a closet until after the election. < keeping fingers and eyes crossed >

Just an Ag said:

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All the early vote sunshine pumping (not just FL) is getting my hopes up and triggering my PTSD from 2018. I may need go lock myself in a closet until after the election. < keeping fingers and eyes crossed >

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Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018, just remember that key fact.

R +4,800 votes gap closed in past 60 minutes

been gaining 5,000-6,000 votes per hour (Mail In + Inperson early voting)

astros4545 said:

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R +4,800 votes gap closed in past 60 minutes

been gaining 5,000-6,000 votes per hour (Mail In + Inperson early voting)

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Wow. Very encouraging news out of Florida. Hopefully it stays at that pace.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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My only question is the validity of the assumption that D's won't show up on ED.

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The Dem sheeple drank the covid Kool Aid heavily, is my view. Plus they tend to be lazier and can't be bothered to actually go to the polls.

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Couple it with them showing up on ED, seeing a long line, and saying to themselves "Biden is up 8 here in FL, so my vote won't make a difference." There will be many of those, IMO.

astros4545 said:

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R +4,800 votes gap closed in past 60 minutes

been gaining 5,000-6,000 votes per hour (Mail In + Inperson early voting)

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Where are you pulling this from? What I'm looking at isn't updating that often

Polls are open for 4-5 more hours in Florida.