Faustus said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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How is it they won't see it coming when they've already pulled out and given up on Florida?

Concerned Moderates here can read this thread too. Won't even know what hit them!

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Biden is in Florida on Thursday. FWIW.

Biden's Super PAC pulled out of Florida and basically said it's a lost cause.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Biden's Super PAC pulled out of Florida and basically said it's a lost cause.

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I don't disagree.

But the why is Biden himself going down there on Thursday? Makes no sense if they think it's gone. He could go elsewhere.

aginlakeway said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Biden's Super PAC pulled out of Florida and basically said it's a lost cause.

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I don't disagree.

But the why is Biden himself going down there on Thursday? Makes no sense if they think it's gone. He could go elsewhere.

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House races in district 7 and 13.

aginlakeway said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Biden's Super PAC pulled out of Florida and basically said it's a lost cause.

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I don't disagree.

But the why is Biden himself going down there on Thursday? Makes no sense if they think it's gone. He could go elsewhere.

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Yeah, I went back and edited to reflect that it's the PAC that pulled out.

Biden is going to creakily tilt at windmills I guess. Might as well after having at Texas and Georgia.

Edit: MFR probably has hit on it.

Conservative Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

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If you are going by 2016 numbers, Trump could've won 2016 by being down 200999 (88,000+113,000-1) votes before Election Day and still have won by one vote.

In 2020 republicans are currently down 267,000 votes with several days left of early voting to go. Therefore it looks like republicans are going to surpass the 2016 threshold of 201,000 votes and possibly be almost tied going into Election Day (I.e. republicans will win big since Election Day voting republicans crush it).

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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aginlakeway said:

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Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Biden's Super PAC pulled out of Florida and basically said it's a lost cause.

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I don't disagree.

But the why is Biden himself going down there on Thursday? Makes no sense if they think it's gone. He could go elsewhere.

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House races in district 7 and 13.

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Yeah at this point it looks like they're focusing on down-ballot races. There's no other reason why they'd give Georgia and Texas priority over PA/MI/WI/OH and then head to Florida where figures show Trump is gaining serious ground.

rgag12 said:

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Conservative Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

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If you are going by 2016 numbers, Trump could've won 2016 by being down 200999 (88,000+113,000-1) votes before Election Day and still won by one vote.

In 2020 republicans are currently down 288,000 votes with several days left of early voting to go. Therefore it looks like republicans are going to surpass the 2016 threshold of 201000 votes and possibly be almost tied going into Election Day (I.e. republicans will win big since Election Day voting republicans crush it).

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I think with many more vote by mail, it will be harder to predict. I think a lot of republicans are voting by mail or in person early than would in a typical year, and especially the older folks in Florida. Not as much as the democrats, but I think certainly more than 2016.

There is also a theory that the Dems have further cannibalized their ED turnout with VBM efforts.

Haven't seen the data to support that, but it's not implausible.

bmks270 said:

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rgag12 said:

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Conservative Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

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If you are going by 2016 numbers, Trump could've won 2016 by being down 200999 (88,000+113,000-1) votes before Election Day and still won by one vote.

In 2020 republicans are currently down 288,000 votes with several days left of early voting to go. Therefore it looks like republicans are going to surpass the 2016 threshold of 201000 votes and possibly be almost tied going into Election Day (I.e. republicans will win big since Election Day voting republicans crush it).

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I think with many more vote by mail, it will be harder to predict. I think a lot of republicans are voting by mail or in person early than would in a typical year, and especially the older folks in Florida. Not as much as the democrats, but I think certainly more than 2016.

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Yea it's certainly harder to predict this year because of VBM, and it seems like people in general just want to vote early this year. However, if republicans get it down to sub 100,000 I think there are extremely good odds republicans win. Anything above that then you never know

rgag12 said:

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bmks270 said:

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rgag12 said:

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Conservative Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

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If you are going by 2016 numbers, Trump could've won 2016 by being down 200999 (88,000+113,000-1) votes before Election Day and still won by one vote.

In 2020 republicans are currently down 288,000 votes with several days left of early voting to go. Therefore it looks like republicans are going to surpass the 2016 threshold of 201000 votes and possibly be almost tied going into Election Day (I.e. republicans will win big since Election Day voting republicans crush it).

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I think with many more vote by mail, it will be harder to predict. I think a lot of republicans are voting by mail or in person early than would in a typical year, and especially the older folks in Florida. Not as much as the democrats, but I think certainly more than 2016.

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Yea it's certainly harder to predict this year because of VBM, and it seems like people in general just want to vote early this year. However, if republicans get it down to sub 100,000 I think there are extremely good odds republicans win. Anything above that then you never know

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Final voter turnout will be unknown, but I think we can assume it exceeds the 9.6 million in 2016. Trump just needs to win the remaining votes by +10, and I think he is already at +13 in early in person voting, and will be like +15-20 on Election Day.

Quote:

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Biden is in Florida on Thursday.

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Do you think he'll know that?

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

useful tracking ballot counts by party in battle ground states.

Keegan99 said:

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There is also a theory that the Dems have further cannibalized their ED turnout with VBM efforts.

Haven't seen the data to support that, but it's not implausible.

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Sometimes, the easier you make something for some people, the more entitled they feel to demand it be made easier. Not gonna name names.

"There is also a theory that the Dems have further cannibalized their ED turnout"

EWWWWWWW!!!!

This guy's numbers are way off. Not even sure what his points are.

The net lead of the Dems when taking into account both IPEV AND Mail-in Votes is +242K. It is dropping hourly, which is good. However, by his numbers Trump already has the lead, which is incorrect.

I think it is poorly worded but I believe he is just putting out the number of votes the Reps added by In person voting. He is not tracking the Dem in person numbers. However he does normally note how many votes the lead has dropped. I don't see that in this update. What he is saying is at the pace things are shaking out now the Dem lead will be erased this week. They very well may lose the 2016 level Election Day buffer they had by mid day today.

So he is saying trump has a 130k vote lead in early voting? If so that's really good right because republicans historically out vote dems on ED?

Cheetah01 said:

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This guy's numbers are way off. Not even sure what his points are.

The net lead of the Dems when taking into account both IPEV AND Mail-in Votes is +242K. It is dropping hourly, which is good. However, by his numbers Trump already has the lead, which is incorrect.

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You're not reading it correctly but Larry has an odd way of listing it so it's understandable.

Trump does not have the lead but will need an increase of 154,102 (R's over D) and at the rate it's been growing there's a good chance R's increase that much by election day. If that's the case it would be a tie and R's would almost certainly win as they will show up in person on election day in much greater numbers than Dems.

The second number is simply to match the D's lead on election day 2016, which was 88,000. R's only need a net increase of 41,102 in order to only be losing by 88,000 on election day, which again would be good news for Trump as he won the state by over 100,000 votes in 2016.

Again, I know it's confusing but once you understand how he's positioning the target numbers it makes sense.

Prosperdick said:

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This guy is extremely confusing.

JAG03 said:

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So he is saying trump has a 130k vote lead in early voting? If so that's really good right because republicans historically out vote dems on ED?

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Yep - a majority of the old Florida republicans who turn out probably have ED.

I'm usually pretty good with numbers and making sense of them but he has a f'ed up way of communicating what he is trying to say.

JAG03 said:

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So he is saying trump has a 130k vote lead in early voting? If so that's really good right because republicans historically out vote dems on ED?

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No he's not and I agree Larry is confusing but part of it is twitter's character limitation. I'll break it down.

Dems have a vote by mail lead of ~615K. Reps have an in person early vote lead of ~373K.

Subtract 373K from 615K and you get the total lead of ~242,000.

Dems led 2016 election day by 88,000 and Trump won in 2016 by 113,000 votes. Therefore, he has two targets.

The first target is the aggressive one. If R's can increase their IPEV by another 154,000 it will match the 88,000 deficit in 2016 and since Trump won 2016 by 113,000 votes that means R's outvoted D's on election day by 201,000. It would look very good for Trump winning Florida easily, especially since it's likely more D's have voted early this time around.

The second target is the easier one. R's only need to increase their lead in IPEV by 41,000 to simply make it a tie based on 2016 numbers. Because Trump gained 210,000 votes on election day 2016 the 41K is simply the 242K difference.

The second target will be moot after today because R's will likely gain more than 41,000 in person voting today, especially in the pan handle.

Hopefully after today he can remove target 2 and provide more context for target 1 and eliminate some confusion.

He's already removed Target 2 from his tweets.

Thanks for the explanation.

So what's the bottom line?

aginlakeway said:

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So what's the bottom line?

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See my post above.

Prosperdick said:

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Dumb_Loggy said:

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He's already removed Target 2 from his tweets.

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I noticed that, good. Now the main target is currently 144,000 (already shaved 10,000 since earlier this morning).

I think we will hit that target by Friday and with any luck add another 88,000 lead by election day. In other words, if R's and D's are tied on election day it's OVER BIGLY.

Disclaimer: this all assumes registered R's vote R and registered D's vote D. I think more D's will flip to R than the other way around but of course the media/polling services are in COMPLETE disagreement. Also the media/polling services feel the Independents will move HARD to the left and vote Dem.

BOTTOM LINE: As you are watching the results early on election night remember this...if you see Trump take Florida easily it means the media and polling services were WAY wrong and that bodes VERY well for the rest of the night.

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While I agree with your bolder statement in general, the key counties to watch will be Hillsborough, Orange and Palm Beach. These counties are full of snowbirds from the rust belt states. If they outperform 2016, it's going to be a fun night.

The thing is, Trump could absolutely kill it in FL, but still lose overall (Clinton did it). I'm going to be cautiously optimistic until I see what happens in NC and the rust belt.

The conventional wisdom for all of these predictions to work is that R's will outpace D's significantly on ED. But, so much conventional wisdom has gone out the window in this crazy election. How do we really know that R's will significantly outvote D's on election day?