The fact 538 doesn't have Trump winning Texas tells you all you need to know about how valid their model is.

538 has Trump at 68% chance of winning TX.

Edit- 538 has Biden with almost as good chance of winning FL as Trump does Tx is laughable.

D advantage in EV is now down to ~270K.

akm91 said:

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D advantage in EV is now down to ~270K.

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What is the projected ED Republican turnout?

Silvertaps said:

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akm91 said:

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D advantage in EV is now down to ~270K.

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What is the projected ED Republican turnout?

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It looks like the tracking for "super voter" has changed is now tracking "4/4 voters" in each party.

It says to match 2016 turnout, Republicans have a margin among 4/4 voters who haven't yet voted of +280,000 over the democrats.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

So just in the consistent voters model, the Reps have enough to take the lead.

Projected Miami-Dade to Trump by +50k?!

Keegan99 said:

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Guess Trump is feeling good about FL.

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I don't see who else to interpret that.

Keegan99 said:

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Guess Trump is feeling good about FL.

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So both campaigns have pulled Ads and Pacs out of Fla? That means it is locked up one way or the other to me. I'm guessing Trump has it locked in FLA. Can't get complacent now though

I thought it was pulling their ground game manager to another state. Don't think it was ads.

I can see the headlines on CNN right now "Trump pulls ads from Florida because of polls"

Keegan99 said:

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Guess Trump is feeling good about FL.

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Wow. That is significant.

More resources to put into Minnesota now.

JJMt said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Guess Trump is feeling good about FL.

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But didn't they pull their Ohio ads recently? Are they now not feeling so good about Ohio?

It's really hard to tell anything about ad-pulling. It could mean that the campaign feels comfortable there, but alternatively that the campaign feels hopelessly behind there.

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They're not hopelessly behind in Florida. Multiple reports that they're outpacing 2016 efforts and getting better results in traditionally democrat counties.

You can pull TV ads without pulling social media and online ads, which are arguably more targeted and effective.

The left is spinning this as "Trump campaign is out of cash and desperate".

Keegan99 said:

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The left is spinning this as "Trump campaign is out of cash and desperate".

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I hope you wouldn't have much cash left with 6 days to go.

But if your in the Biden crime family you probably just don't spend it, then after you lose the election, you keep it all to yourself.

Meanwhile this is the line for IVANKA in Florida.

JJMt said:

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Keegan99 said:

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Guess Trump is feeling good about FL.

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But didn't they pull their Ohio ads recently? Are they now not feeling so good about Ohio?

It's really hard to tell anything about ad-pulling. It could mean that the campaign feels comfortable there, but alternatively that the campaign feels hopelessly behind there.

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Regarding Ohio, it is about the media markets which often encompass more than one state depending on where located.

Ohio is bordered by Pennsylvania, Michigan, Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia. So those markets might have more to do with rural areas next to Ohio in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Make sense?

His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

Wonder what she is wearing ... with that kind of line to get in ...

aginlakeway said:

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Wonder what she is wearing ... with that kind of line to get in ...

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Praying for clothing malfunction

Quote:

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So both campaigns have pulled Ads and Pacs out of Fla? That means it is locked up one way or the other to me. I'm guessing Trump has it locked in FLA. Can't get complacent now though

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Trump has it locked up is the only way to interpret that. Trump doesn't win without FL so there's no way he pulls out without it locked up. Biden does not need FL so he's cutting his losses and focusing elsewhere.

AggieUSMC said:

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Quote:

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So both campaigns have pulled Ads and Pacs out of Fla? That means it is locked up one way or the other to me. I'm guessing Trump has it locked in FLA. Can't get complacent now though

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Trump has it locked up is the only way to interpret that. Trump doesn't win without FL so there's no way he pulls out without it locked up. Biden does not need FL so he's cutting his losses and focusing elsewhere.

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Biden is in Florida on Thursday.

Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

Yes. The Rs are shaving thousands off that lead each HOUR.

Conservative Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

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At the current pace, especially with bright red counties just now allowing in person early voting, he expects R's to be either tied with D's or even slightly ahead. There's no way D's outvote R's on election day in Florida (or most of the other swing states).

Trump Pulls Florida Ads as Cash-Poor Campaign Enters Final Week

• Focus shifts to northern states where he prevailed in 2016
• Buoyed by fundraising, Biden holds 3-1 edge in recent spending

By Gregory Korte and Mario Parker
(Bloomberg) --
President Donald Trump's campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016.
Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one over that time.
Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he's down in all those states but Ohio, where it's effectively even.

Trump gestures during a rally in Sanford, Florida on Oct. 12.

The president still has $350,275 budgeted to spend on ads in Florida through Election Day, but has canceled $5.5 million in the final two weeks of the campaign, according to data compiled from ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.
The Trump campaign says its organizational strength in Florida will carry it into Trump's column on Election Night as Republicans get more in-person voters to the polls.
'Ground Game'
"You have to have a ground game. Joe Biden does not have one. The president does," Trump communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a phone call with reporters Tuesday. "That's why you saw the president close the gap in Florida."
Biden and Trump are effectively tied in the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the state.
About 312,000 more registered Republicans have voted in person in Florida than registered Democrats since early voting began a week ago. But Democrats lead by more than 615,000 votes in mail-in voting, according to the U.S. Elections Project, giving Democrats a 41.8% to 37.1% overall advantage.
"Florida is going to go the president's way," Murtaugh said.
The Biden campaign has added $41 million to its ad budget in the home stretch, pouring more money into every battleground state except Texas. Through Election Day, the campaign has budgeted $8.3 million in Florida, $7.1 million in Pennsylvania, $5.3 million in Michigan and $4.9 million in North Carolina.
In the final week, Biden is set to outspend Trump in every battleground state except for Minnesota and Ohio, where Biden still maintains an overall advantage.

Conservative Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

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The panhandle, which is DEEP RED, by 25-50 points in each county, just started early voting this week. That's why you are seeing D votes DWINDLING FAST.

Mostly Foggy Recollection said:

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Conservative Ag said:

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Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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Can someone explain this to me? Does he expect the D lead to be less than 88,000 by Election Day? Not sure I follow his math.

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The panhandle, which is DEEP RED, by 25-50 points in each county, just started early voting this week. That's why you are seeing D votes DWINDLING FAST.

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It's almost as if they're enthusiastically voting for Trump in person as opposed to lazy/frightened of their own shadow Dems mailing their ballots and cowering in fear.

HoustonAggie37713 said:

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Trump Pulls Florida Ads as Cash-Poor Campaign Enters Final Week

• Focus shifts to northern states where he prevailed in 2016
• Buoyed by fundraising, Biden holds 3-1 edge in recent spending

By Gregory Korte and Mario Parker
(Bloomberg) --
President Donald Trump's campaign has all but pulled its advertising out of Florida, as it stakes its relatively small bank account on the industrial northern states that carried him to victory in 2016.
Since the beginning of the fall campaign on Labor Day, Trump has cut $24 million from his national ad budget, while former Vice President Joe Biden has added $197 million. Biden has outspent Trump three-to-one over that time.
Trump is now placing his final bet on just four battleground states: Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Polls show he's down in all those states but Ohio, where it's effectively even.

Trump gestures during a rally in Sanford, Florida on Oct. 12.

The president still has $350,275 budgeted to spend on ads in Florida through Election Day, but has canceled $5.5 million in the final two weeks of the campaign, according to data compiled from ad-tracking firm Advertising Analytics.
The Trump campaign says its organizational strength in Florida will carry it into Trump's column on Election Night as Republicans get more in-person voters to the polls.
'Ground Game'
"You have to have a ground game. Joe Biden does not have one. The president does," Trump communications director Tim Murtaugh said in a phone call with reporters Tuesday. "That's why you saw the president close the gap in Florida."
Biden and Trump are effectively tied in the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the state.
About 312,000 more registered Republicans have voted in person in Florida than registered Democrats since early voting began a week ago. But Democrats lead by more than 615,000 votes in mail-in voting, according to the U.S. Elections Project, giving Democrats a 41.8% to 37.1% overall advantage.
"Florida is going to go the president's way," Murtaugh said.
The Biden campaign has added $41 million to its ad budget in the home stretch, pouring more money into every battleground state except Texas. Through Election Day, the campaign has budgeted $8.3 million in Florida, $7.1 million in Pennsylvania, $5.3 million in Michigan and $4.9 million in North Carolina.
In the final week, Biden is set to outspend Trump in every battleground state except for Minnesota and Ohio, where Biden still maintains an overall advantage.

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SMH. These people believe their own spin. It's gonna be a rough 4 years for them.

Pretty hilarious to hear Democrats brag about campaign contributions after Citizens United and their rebuke of it.

Prosperdick said:

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His last point is the most salient....they won't even see it coming like certain concerned moderates on this forum.

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How is it they don't even see it coming when the pro-Biden PACs have already pulled out and given up on Florida per posts on this thread?

Concerned Moderates here can read this thread too. Won't even know what hit them!