StoneCold99 said:

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I didn't keep up with exact numbers back then- how do these compare to 2016? Good or bad for Trump?

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Hillsborough and Pinellas are looking really good for Trump. These are Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Pinellas went for Obama in 2012, but Trump in 2016.
Hillsborough went for Obama in 2012 and Clinton in 2016.
Looks like Trump is holding onto Pinellas for 2020 and has a chance at swinging Hillsborough.

I haven't read through the rest of the thread, but 15 R counties start EV this weekend.

So as in Florida is looking like a toss up, leaning red, or red?

It's red

How stupid would a resident of PA have to be to vote for Biden? Both he and his running mate have said they WILL end fracking. Just because they come back and say they won't now doesn't change the fact that their FIRST statement was that they would.

The Florida GOP is a machine.

That's the benefit of being in a competitive state that tilts your way. It demands a well run operation and good candidates. Contrast with the atrophy in Texas over the last few cycles.

If the Dems couldn't flip either the Senate seat or the Governorship in Florida in 2018 with a damn near perfect electoral climate and a solid slate of candidates for those offices, they're really, really unlikely to muster a flip for President in 2020.

tate504 said:

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So as in Florida is looking like a toss up, leaning red, or red?

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If Miami-Dade County doesn't have a huge turnaround towards Biden soon, Florida will be beet red on November 3.

Hillary trounced Trump in 2016, by 63% to 33%. Biden has about a 2% point lead right now.

Florida Mail in Ballots:

Requested: D + 806,288
Returned to date: D + 553,414

So does that mean more democrats are actually voting in person? Or that they are just lazy and haven't mailed it yet or won't ever mail it?

Keegan99 said:

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The Florida GOP is a machine.

That's the benefit of being in a competitive state that tilts your way. It demands a well run operation and good candidates. Contrast with the atrophy in Texas over the last few cycles.

If the Dems couldn't flip either the Senate seat or the Governorship in Florida in 2018 with a damn near perfect electoral climate and a solid slate of candidates for those offices, they're really, really unlikely to muster a flip for President in 2020.

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Yeah Texas takes a lot of things for granted and it might come back to bite them in the ass if they don't straighten up. One of the lead GOP operatives said they haven't ever went out to recruit new voters until just recently. Said they relied on new GOP voters to emerge organically

That is BS to me, that is why Colorado and Virginia turned Blue and why Arizona is about to as well

bmks270 said:

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Florida Mail in Ballots:

Requested: D + 806,288
Returned to date: D + 553,414

So does that mean more democrats are actually voting in person? Or that they are just lazy and haven't mailed it yet or won't ever mail it?

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Lets hope they are all lazy and don't vote or fill them out wrong. And Hope that happens in all the battlegrounds

aggiehawg said:

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tate504 said:

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So as in Florida is looking like a toss up, leaning red, or red?

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If Miami-Dade County doesn't have a huge turnaround towards Biden soon, Florida will be beet red on November 3.

Hillary trounced Trump in 2016, by 63% to 33%. Biden has about a 2% point lead right now.

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I think that's for IPEV only. If you include both IPEV and Mail In, Miami Dade is on same trend as 2016 for R's and slightly better for D's.

IPEV: D:38.5%; R:38.3%
Mail: D:48.4%; R:25.5%
Total EV: D:45.1%; R:29.7% ----> 2016: D:43.9%; R:29.6%

Well that's a buzzkill.

Wonder why Schweikart is only focused on IPEV and not total EV? It looks like IPEV is favoring R's but Mail In EV is favoring D's.

akm91 said:

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Wonder why Schweikart is only focused on IPEV and not total EV? It looks like IPEV is favoring R's but Mail In EV is favoring D's.

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Because they have an approx est of how many Mail Ins are needed by Dems relative to In-Person in order to win.

The Dem GOTV strategy is built upon mail in EV only.
The GOP GOTV strategy is built upon In-Person EV and ED.

But looking at the mail in data, the Dem's are outpacing 2016. Did they factor that into their model?

He's focused on both. He knows what aggregate margin the Dems need from VBM and IPEV to have a shot on election day.

akm91 said:

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But looking at the mail in data, the Dem's are outpacing 2016. Did they factor that into their model?

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Yes. Democrats are afraid of leaving their homes. They will be no shows on Election Day.

Got it. It wasn't clear that he factored the mail in voting increase by D's. This year's election is hard to model out due to changes in behavior and mail in voting.

bmks270 said:

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akm91 said:

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But looking at the mail in data, the Dem's are outpacing 2016. Did they factor that into their model?

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Yes. Democrats are afraid of leaving their homes. They will be no shows on Election Day.

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Yes, Dems may be outpacing their EV numbers, but that just means they are banking them earlier NOT that they are adding that many more votes to their totals vs. the past.

akm91 said:

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But looking at the mail in data, the Dem's are outpacing 2016. Did they factor that into their model?

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I can't remember but I read somewhere how they came to the 563,000 number. But anyway that is the magic number they came up with for Democrats to have a chance to win FL.

So you start with mail in ballots(but I don't have the numbers in front of me).

563,000 + republican lead in EV = current number Democrats need in mail in.

Whole equation is...

563,000 + republican lead in EV - democrat lead in mail in = votes still required by D's to have a chance in fl.

My mumbling probably doesn't make sense to anyone but me, but that is it.

At this point democrats will have to hope for a significant percent of crossover voters and independents breaking their way.

JB99 said:

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At this point democrats will have to hope for a significant percent of crossover voters and independents breaking their way.

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Also traditionally this Sunday and the Sunday before election day are big dem turnout days in Florida with Souls to the Polls being this Sunday and only democrat counties being open for early voting the Sunday before the election. Numbers are looking very good for Republicans. Would like to make sure that we don't see a big bump this Sunday in Florida before declaring victory; however, I am reasonably confident that Trump will win Florida by more in 2020 than 2016 around 2-3% victory.

So I'm looking at some of the 2016 data and the total number of voters who selected either Clinton or Trump (9.09 million). If you use the assumption that the same number of people will cast a vote this election for Trump or Biden, then subtract votes already cast to get the number of uncast votes.

Using this number (about 4.3 million


2016 Votes for Trump or Clinton = 9.09 million
2020 early votes (R, D, I) = 4.71 million

Assume same number vote for Trump or Biden as did Trump or Clinton in 2016:
9.09 - 4.71 = 4.38 million uncast votes.

Exclude votes with no party affiliation (Assume they break 50/50) the current democrat party lead = 427,517
Margin of all cast votes = D +8.9

Margin of uncast votes needed by Trump to catch up (0.43/4.31) = R + 9.7

Current in person early vote margin = R +10.1

If the remaining uncast votes hold to the early in person vote margin, Trump wins FL.

The above assumes same turnout as 2016, no cross party voting, and that unaffiliated vote split is 50/50. I think Trump has an edge with unaffiliated voters and turnout will be higher than 2016. Both favor Trump even further.

JB99 said:

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At this point democrats will have to hope for a significant percent of crossover voters and independents breaking their way.

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So it's actually the Dems hoping the polls of Hispanics/blacks are completely wrong.

Don't forget 15 republican counties start voting tomorrow.

Florida should be red on the night of November 3rd. There is nothing in the early data to suggest otherwise.

Again, if the Dems couldn't get the Governorship or a Senate seat in the ideal conditions of 2018, it's highly unlikely they're going to get the state now with Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

Florida should be the least of GOP worries.

Note that if Biden is really up 5+ nationally you don't get these sort of early voting results from Florida.

Florida should tip blue at a 3.5+ percent national Dem edge. At 5+ nationally Florida should be a heavy blue lean.

WHOOP!'91 said:

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How stupid would a resident of PA have to be to vote for Biden? Both he and his running mate have said they WILL end fracking. Just because they come back and say they won't now doesn't change the fact that their FIRST statement was that they would.

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If I heard correctly during the debate last night, Biden said he would target elimination of oil & gas by 2035. That would include the end of fracking. Couldn't find a video clip to verify his statement, but remember his statement stood out.

Florida will be called for Trump the minute the polls close.

And the meltdown will begin.

At the end of this election the whole polling industry is going to be in complete disarray. It's really criminal what they've done. By skewing polls so heavily Dem throughout the Summer they've also enabled Dems to get a heavy influx of donations. There needs to be some serious accountability on this industry because it's borderline election interference.

JB99 said:

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At the end of this election the whole polling industry is going to be in complete disarray. It's really criminal what they've done. By skewing polls so heavily Dem throughout the Summer they've also enabled Dems to get a heavy influx of donations. There needs to be some serious accountability on this industry because it's borderline election interference.

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Don't bet on any changes. The claim will be "Trump was just a huge aberration. No one could be honest about voting for him." (To be fair, a politician in favor of America vs. just power hungry, and doing what he says is pretty unusual).

Meanwhile, on planet earth, more good news.