Philon is also super skinny. Acuff has more muscle.

I don't like Ament and dont' trust him to be an efficient scorer. Worried he is going to be another Kuzma.

I would still do Flemmings, Wagler, Acuff, Brown - which takes you to 8th pick. Then I would probably do Burries over Philon. I would rather have a 6'2 guy with muscle than a 6'4 175lb guy.

Burries is listed at 6'4" and you can tell he has real size. He's probably the biggest of the group with Flemings, Acuff, and Brown. Brown is listed bigger than Burries, but Burries just looks like a bigger player.

Guitarsoup said:

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Philon is also super skinny. Acuff has more muscle.

I don't like Ament and dont' trust him to be an efficient scorer. Worried he is going to be another Kuzma.

I would still do Flemmings, Wagler, Acuff, Brown - which takes you to 8th pick. Then I would probably do Burries over Philon. I would rather have a 6'2 guy with muscle than a 6'4 175lb guy.

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I can't even believe Ament is being talked about as coming out in this draft, at least in this modern NIL era. That kid screams a perfect example of a kid who hit a wild growth spurt and still isn't comfy in his new body. I get he was this tall coming into UT, but he's only just recently started to show flashes of knowing his body and any respectable level of physicality. He's one that I think should 1000% take a good chunk of NIL money to stick around Knoxville for another season and get another year of getting comfy in his feet against physical SEC competition.

The only way the Mavs take a forward imo is if they end up with a top four pick. If they end up 5-8 it'll 100% be a guard. I don't think Ament fits with Flagg or PJ that well, and he's really the only other forward that will likely be a top 10 lottery pick.

I actually do like Labaron Philon even though I think he's flawed. He's a solid athlete who will likely put on a bit more muscle as he matures into his grown man body, and he's incredibly offensively gifted (like many guards in the top 10-12. Not going to be great on D but most guards under 6'3" will probably struggle in the NBA. You could say the same thing about Acuff and Wagler (athletically). Flemings and Mikel Brown Jr. to some extent as well but I think both of those guys have either more athleticism or size to handle the NBA better defensively.

Agree on Ament. Just look about much Labaron Philon has helped himself by coming back. He's going to be a top 10 pick because he chose to mature another year and work on his game.

Tksymm7 said:

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Agree on Ament. Just look about much Labaron Philon has helped himself by coming back. He's going to be a top 10 pick because he chose to mature another year and work on his game.

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yep!

My white knuckle scenario is if the Mavs jump to the 4th pick. DP, Dybantsa, and Boozer are off the board and the Mavs are staring Caleb Wilson in the face. An athletic freak who can legitimately guard all 5 positions on court....but who absolutely needs the ball in his hands to be effective on offense and doesn't address really any need. I know the basic tenet of nba lottery draft 101 is that you should always take the best player available, but inserting Caleb Wilson into this Mavs lineup would be extremely clunky. I think it's the only case where I would prefer a trade down package.

He's a really interesting case study. The problem is which are the teams that would be drafting in the 5-10 range who are looking for a player like that? Maybe just Brooklyn? Really seems like all these teams towards the top need a 1-3 type of player. A good fit for him may be Indiana, but they don't have their pick if it falls out of the top 4, right?

Caleb Wilson would make the Suns or Hornets contenders if he were on one of those teams lol.

I can see Caleb Wilson fitting in to a similar lineup that we ran out there yesterday. What if it was Kyrie, Christie, Naji, Coop, and Caleb? That's a lot of athleticism and guys who offer different things on both ends. That's a lineup where you can get 3 stops and 6-8 points in 45 seconds.

It's really hard to pass on players like that, but I do understand the concern.

Vessel said:

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He's a really interesting case study. The problem is which are the teams that would be drafting in the 5-10 range who are looking for a player like that? Maybe just Brooklyn? Really seems like all these teams towards the top need a 1-3 type of player. A good fit for him may be Indiana, but they don't have their pick if it falls out of the top 4, right?

Caleb Wilson would make the Suns or Hornets contenders if he were on one of those teams lol.

I can see Caleb Wilson fitting in to a similar lineup that we ran out there yesterday. What if it was Kyrie, Christie, Naji, Coop, and Caleb? That's a lot of athleticism and guys who offer different things on both ends. That's a lineup where you can get 3 stops and 6-8 points in 45 seconds.

It's really hard to pass on players like that, but I do understand the concern.

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Ya hard to know without the full context of where other teams end up in the draft. He's just the most glaring "what do you actually do for us?" player in the top 7.

That lineup would set NBA offense back to the stoneage lol. I think Kyrie might legit die if he's asked to lead that offensive group.

M.C. Swag said:

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My white knuckle scenario is if the Mavs jump to the 4th pick. DP, Dybantsa, and Boozer are off the board and the Mavs are staring Caleb Wilson in the face. An athletic freak who can legitimately guard all 5 positions on court....but who absolutely needs the ball in his hands to be effective on offense and doesn't address really any need. I know the basic tenet of nba lottery draft 101 is that you should always take the best player available, but inserting Caleb Wilson into this Mavs lineup would be extremely clunky. I think it's the only case where I would prefer a trade down package.

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I could see Memphis wanting Caleb Wilson instead of a PG if they are going to suck it up and keep Morant AND they fall to ~8th and don't want small Acuff next to small Morant.

Indy - no
Sac - needs PG more and needs to dump Sabonis, but maybe Sabonis/Wilson is a pair?
Wizards - needs a PF for the 60 games a year AD misses
Nets - needs everything, but needs to be good next year. I feel like Wagler makes sense there.
Hawks - I think Caleb Wilson makes a lot of sense, but they need a PG and C worse. But Wilson is from ATL.
Chicago - Perfect fit for Wilson.
Blazers - no idea what they are doing. Deni, Camara, Wilson, Clingan, Jrue would be a beast defensive lineup.
Charlotte - Perfect spot for Wilson, but you don't want to drop that far.

It's not that bad is it? Obviously it's a niche lineup where you're just trying to beat the other team with athleticism and pace, not exactly through precision and sets.

But I think it's plenty of ball handling and just enough shooting to space the floor for drives.

Drafting Wilson also allows you to trade PJ, Gafford, or even Naji for more guard help/shooting. So it does give you some other options.

This is why I'd love Boozer. I just think he's so "can't miss" and his size and play style allows you to trade some of the pieces we already have for other help at guard. So the Mavs can improve the team in multiple ways by drafting just one player.

Cued up to Mavs taking Brown:

Oh I would take Boozer at #1 regardless. Dude is a winner and anyone who has him lower than the top pick is overthinking it (like they did with Luka).

Boozer at the 5 and cooper at the 4 would be CRAZY

Draft Boozer 1, trade Lively and PJ to Milwaukee for Kuzma and the 11th pick, draft Burries… Profit.

Apparently the 5 out lineup has unlocked PJ's 3 pointer…

Current top 10 draft order:

1) Indiana
2) Washington
3) Brooklyn
4) Sacramento
5) Utah
6) Atlanta via NO
7) Dallas
8) Memphis
9) Chicago
10) Milwaukee

Obviously I think Peterson, Boozer and Dybantsa are in a tier of their own, with Wilson just behind them. So lets just say the order stays like this for simplicity.

I could see Indiana going with Boozer No.1 overall and plopping him in between Siakam and Zubac and being an absolute menace to society. I don't think they go guard because they already have Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith who will get the Lions share of minutes. Sure Peterson could make sense here but I think they would go with a sure thing.

Washington is taking Peterson here imo, but who knows.

Brooklyn would take Dybantsa even though they have SO many 6'6"-6'10" guys that are young. Would prefer Peterson if he were available. Brooklyn is probably the first team that I think would really like to draft a guard if they could have their druthers.

Sacramento taking best available because they are trash, and this is where it gets interesting.

Utah has fully committed to Keyonte George being their ball handling guard, and for good reason. Thus I think them taking an Acuff or really even a Kingston Flemings doesn't make a ton of sense. They'd be taking a primary ball handler when they already have one. They probably take Wagler in this scenario, but I think Utah would entertain moving down if at all possible. Utah wants a top 3 pick and could be discouraged if they don't get one. Atlanta is also in this situation some because they have Jalen Johnson running the show, but a guard makes more sense for them than Utah imo.

So that brings us to Dallas, and leaves them with likely one of Flemings, Acuff and Mikel Brown Jr., but again hot take I also really like Labaron Philon and Brayden Burries. And while that is early for them I think there are scenarios where they fit in with this team better than Flemings and Brown Jr. I am taking Acuff though if available even given the size and defensie issues.

All of this is to say after the top four I do think some teams will be creative or draft more for a fit than we might think.

Big loss last night. I think there's a real chance Memphis may not win a game the rest of the season. They are fielding a team that I legit think some of the NCAA 1-seeds would give a tough game too. They also have a brutal schedule down the stretch, with the only two seemingly winnable games being Chicago and Utah, who just brutalized Memphis.

I respect greatly that the Mavs are continuing to play all of their guys and not sitting dudes deliberately to lose games. But, with that being said, I think you might have to go to Khris Middleton, Klay, Naji, and PJ and be like "Hey this is going to get gross. I am sorry, but we're going to be limiting your minutes here down the stretch." Because they cannot afford for Middleton to go off for 35.

Not sitting them completely but just giving more minutes to Nembhard (as good and as bad as he can be), Poulakidas, Johnson, Powell etc.

Yeah, Memphis and Utah are doing what needs to be done in a really disgusting and egregious way. The good news is we're 5 wins clear of the Bulls, and our schedule is pretty rough also.

Looks like we're most likely going to finish with 7th best odds.

Vessel said:

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Yeah, Memphis and Utah are doing what needs to be done in a really disgusting and egregious way. The good news is we're 5 wins clear of the Bulls, and our schedule is pretty rough also.

Looks like we're most likely going to finish with 7th best odds.

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I think 6th best as long as you hold off Memphis. Mavs don't have a single game left against a team worse than them. Memphis has the Jazz.

Pelicans have Kings and Jazz.

My prediction for the lottery seed:

1. Indiana
2. Washington
3. Nets
4. Kings
5. Jazz
6. Mavs
7. Grizz
8. Pelicans
9. Bucks
10. Bulls
11. Blazers
12. Warriors
13. 76ers
14. Hawks

Remember, if you tie someone, you split the lottery balls. So if Mav/Grizzlies both finish with the same record, they split the number of balls between 6 and 7 and flip a coin to see who goes first if neither wins the lottery.

Mavs just beat the Cavs the other day. Memphis just got whooped by Chicago. Mavs are still trying while Memphis is not.

There is a world where we tie with Memphis, but I think most likely scenario is we end up behind them.

Our fate is in the hands of the basketball gods who must reward the ethical tank. Utah and Memphis must be punished for trying to trick the basketball gods.

Yeah, 6th is best case scenario. 6th or 7th virtually guarantees one of Flemings, Acuff, Brown or Wagler.

Maybe Memphis can pass Dallas, but even at 7th there is only a 13% chance of drafting worse than 8th.

If Mavs and Memphis tie, you would have to lose the coin toss AND have multiple teams 9-14 jump to top 4 to pick outside top 8.

M.C. Swag said:

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I desperately want the Mavs to finish 6th. It allows for *some* flexibility if a team or 2 behind the Mavs jumps up

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I hear you, but I think Burries deserves to be considered with the top group now. I think he's been really good over the past couple months. He also probably has less questions than Mikel Brown at this point.

Obviously we want to be as high as possible, but Burries at 9 is not the end of the world for me. 9 would have been brutal if Ament was the guy.

Vessel said:

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M.C. Swag said:

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I desperately want the Mavs to finish 6th. It allows for *some* flexibility if a team or 2 behind the Mavs jumps up

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I hear you, but I think Burries deserves to be considered with the top group now. I think he's been really good over the past couple months. He also probably has less questions than Mikel Brown at this point.

Obviously we want to be as high as possible, but Burries at 9 is not the end of the world for me. 9 would have been brutal if Ament was the guy.

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I just don't see the 'star' potential in Burries and his team is so stacked. Burries floor is higher but if we're drafting outside the top 4, I want Acuff for the upside of a 25ppg scoring machine.

I hear you on Burries. And tbh outside of the Mavs getting Peterson, Boozer, Dybantsa or MAYBE Wagler I don't think there are any real perfect scenarios.

If the Mavs draft Acuff I think you seriously would have to consider moving on from Kyrie. They definitely cannot be on the court at the same time, so do you really want your top 5 or so ball dominant pick sitting the bench behind Kyrie? Maybe? But I doubt it.

The same could probably be said for Flemings, Mikel Brown Jr. and probably Labaron Philon, although I think it's a much easier discussion to say "hey we want you to sit behind Kyrie for a year etc." to those three guys. Mikel Brown Jr. and Flemings could be combo guards imo, but it's not their strength.

Edit: Peterson might technically be the absolute best case scenario because he easily slots into the two guard, isn't that ball dominant but can also run an offense if you need.

M.C. Swag said:

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Vessel said:

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M.C. Swag said:

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I desperately want the Mavs to finish 6th. It allows for *some* flexibility if a team or 2 behind the Mavs jumps up

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I hear you, but I think Burries deserves to be considered with the top group now. I think he's been really good over the past couple months. He also probably has less questions than Mikel Brown at this point.

Obviously we want to be as high as possible, but Burries at 9 is not the end of the world for me. 9 would have been brutal if Ament was the guy.

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I just don't see the 'star' potential in Burries and his team is so stacked. Burries floor is higher but if we're drafting outside the top 4, I want Acuff for the upside of a 25ppg scoring machine.

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Agree. He will also be 21 when the next season starts despite being a freshman.

Fair points. He was good while they were without Peat for a long stretch. He doesn't have the ball as much as a typical lottery guard because they have Bradley, who is a senior.

Definitely a very high floor with Burries, but I think there is a high ceiling there. Not the ceiling of Acuff, for sure, but I think Acuff is less likely to hit his ceiling. Burries also has All Defense potential. His defensive metrics are comparable to some good centers/forwards.

Heard on KOC's pod yesterday that Allen Graves at Santa Clara is intent on coming in to the draft because he's married and ready to start getting the big bucks.

Great news for the Mavs late first round draft pick. There are going to be some good basketball players available there and we can add another rotation player with the 30th pick.

Tksymm7 said:

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I hear you on Burries. And tbh outside of the Mavs getting Peterson, Boozer, Dybantsa or MAYBE Wagler I don't think there are any real perfect scenarios.

If the Mavs draft Acuff I think you seriously would have to consider moving on from Kyrie. They definitely cannot be on the court at the same time, so do you really want your top 5 or so ball dominant pick sitting the bench behind Kyrie? Maybe? But I doubt it.

The same could probably be said for Flemings, Mikel Brown Jr. and probably Labaron Philon, although I think it's a much easier discussion to say "hey we want you to sit behind Kyrie for a year etc." to those three guys. Mikel Brown Jr. and Flemings could be combo guards imo, but it's not their strength.

Edit: Peterson might technically be the absolute best case scenario because he easily slots into the two guard, isn't that ball dominant but can also run an offense if you need.

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I'm not worried about Kyrie's fit moreso than I'm worried about his replacement. His time in the NBA is drawing to an end and the Mavs have 0 offensive creation without him.

Completely agree, but I would be worried about guard fit for the next two years or so when they have to be good. Kyrie and another guard like Acuff, Philon and to a lesser extent Flemings cannot be on the court for extended periods together. They would be tiny and get absolutely torched.

Maybe you do just say hey Acuff you're going to play a lot Kyrie is the guy here and you're behind him until he hangs it up so-to-speak. Kinda like what SA has done with Harper.

Kyrie tore his ACL at age 34. He might never be able to play starter's minutes again. The Mavs highest priority is getting a true offensive spacing, floor general.

I think you trade him if that's the case then and go all in on your next PG. That's a lot of money to pay for a guy playing 25 minutes a night or whatever the case may be in this scenario.

Vessel said:

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Heard on KOC's pod yesterday that Allen Graves at Santa Clara is intent on coming in to the draft because he's married and ready to start getting the big bucks.

Great news for the Mavs late first round draft pick. There are going to be some good basketball players available there and we can add another rotation player with the 30th pick.

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What's funny is that if he's a late first, he'd probably make more money from a big program in nil than he would in the NBA.

There was a story that yaxel turned down a $7 million nil deal and last year Cedric coward turned down a $3 million nil deal from Duke