It's pouring in Cypress now.
bad weather coming tomorrow
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Last: 8 yr ago by RC_57
I was enjoying sleeping in on a Saturday and got jolted awake by a clap of thunder about 20 minutes ago in Tomball. Hope it moves through quickly.
Bone dry in the Med Center.
Dark as hell in Atascocita but no rain yet. Looks like it's coming though
Ran outside to the back yard to grab something and didn't even get wet because the wind was blowing it rain further out. And it's pouring here in Kingwood.
quote:
I was enjoying sleeping in on a Saturday and got jolted awake by a clap of thunder about 20 minutes ago in Tomball. Hope it moves through quickly.
Dat nap doe
quote:
I was enjoying sleeping in on a Saturday and got jolted awake by a clap of thunder about 20 minutes ago in Tomball. Hope it moves through quickly.
Zemira posts.
who made it clap?
Is everyone still alive???
7nine
<Checks balls and crank>...yep
Sunny and blue skies after a short rumbler near JV
Good lord the news is desperate to turn this sh*t into something to cover their miss
LOL after calling out some mets their response is...
So you're telling me that I'm wrong because I called your forecast out, and that when your forecast is totally wrong its actually right because it happened somewhere other than where your crystal ball told you it would?
quote:
I definitely wouldn't call 8+ inches over eastern Texas and the NE extent of SE Texas a bust. I never understand why people say it is a bust or nothing happens just because the most populated region only got an inch or two. The QPF totals were actually pretty well mapped, just further to the northeast than expected. We constantly warn on here that we do not have the capabilities to constantly and accurately predict mesoscale based rain events. If that line would have developed another 50 miles further south it would have been a totally different attitude.
So you're telling me that I'm wrong because I called your forecast out, and that when your forecast is totally wrong its actually right because it happened somewhere other than where your crystal ball told you it would?
Rain passed already in Spring.
Don't mean to double post (posted these in another thread asking about area) but had folks on this thread mentioning the water level at Spring Creek & Riley Fuzzel during round 1 of all this. See below:
Spring Creek that Tuesday (Riley Fuzzel):
Spring Creek following Monday:
Don't mean to double post (posted these in another thread asking about area) but had folks on this thread mentioning the water level at Spring Creek & Riley Fuzzel during round 1 of all this. See below:
Spring Creek that Tuesday (Riley Fuzzel):
Spring Creek following Monday:
---
Class of '10 - A&M Undergrad & Master's Alum
Class of '10 - A&M Undergrad & Master's Alum
quote:what a ****ing joke. HISD cancelled all activities this weekend because of threats of floods and an event that would be benefitting high school juniors I was supposed to go to this morning was cancelled because of the boogeyman weather clowns
Good lord the news is desperate to turn this sh*t into something to cover their miss
You guys understand meteorology follows chaos theory right? And is subject to statistical thermodynamics? This basically means that until we invent a machine that can predict the future with 100% accuracy that weather systems will always be subject to uncertainty and variances with regards to any future prediction. This is also why as supercomputing power has increased that predictions have become more accurate as we can account for more variables in modeling runs.
Meteorological predictions are far more accurate than they were 30 years ago and will be far more accurate 30 years from now. Of course I don't expect the general public to ever understand physics, much less statistical thermodynamics so I expect this will fly over your heads and you all will keep screaming that the meteorologist was WRONG without even considering that they build in probability when they give you the damn forcast because they know they can never be 100% certain. "HURR DURR IT'S NO BETTER THAN FLIPPING A COIN AND A TRAINED MONKEY CAN DO THAT!" No, it's called uncertainty. They are giving you the best available information they have and you should understand that they cannot be 100% accurate. If they are wrong then that means the model run was wrong and missed some variables that weren't accounted for in the base modeling equations.
Getting mad at a meteorologist for being wrong is like getting mad at a seismologist for failing to predict an earthquake or at a psychiatrist for failing to predict a human's behavior. It's asinine and shows your total ignorance of the situation.
Meteorological predictions are far more accurate than they were 30 years ago and will be far more accurate 30 years from now. Of course I don't expect the general public to ever understand physics, much less statistical thermodynamics so I expect this will fly over your heads and you all will keep screaming that the meteorologist was WRONG without even considering that they build in probability when they give you the damn forcast because they know they can never be 100% certain. "HURR DURR IT'S NO BETTER THAN FLIPPING A COIN AND A TRAINED MONKEY CAN DO THAT!" No, it's called uncertainty. They are giving you the best available information they have and you should understand that they cannot be 100% accurate. If they are wrong then that means the model run was wrong and missed some variables that weren't accounted for in the base modeling equations.
Getting mad at a meteorologist for being wrong is like getting mad at a seismologist for failing to predict an earthquake or at a psychiatrist for failing to predict a human's behavior. It's asinine and shows your total ignorance of the situation.
jetch17
Joined:
Feb 5, 2002
Posts:
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How long do you want to ignore this user?
Epic Fail.
It's usually the ones that you don't prepare for that get you.
It's usually the ones that you don't prepare for that get you.
quote:
You guys understand meteorology follows chaos theory right? And is subject to statistical thermodynamics? This basically means that until we invent a machine that can predict the future with 100% accuracy that weather systems will always be subject to uncertainty and variances with regards to any future prediction. This is also why as supercomputing power has increased that predictions have become more accurate as we can account for more variables in modeling runs.
Meteorological predictions are far more accurate than they were 30 years ago and will be far more accurate 30 years from now. Of course I don't expect the general public to ever understand physics, much less statistical thermodynamics so I expect this will fly over your heads and you all will keep screaming that the meteorologist was WRONG without even considering that they build in probability when they give you the damn forcast because they know they can never be 100% certain. "HURR DURR IT'S NO BETTER THAN FLIPPING A COIN AND A TRAINED MONKEY CAN DO THAT!" No, it's called uncertainty. They are giving you the best available information they have and you should understand that they cannot be 100% accurate. If they are wrong then that means the model run was wrong and missed some variables that weren't accounted for in the base modeling equations.
Getting mad at a meteorologist for being wrong is like getting mad at a seismologist for failing to predict an earthquake or at a psychiatrist for failing to predict a human's behavior. It's asinine and shows your total ignorance of the situation.
Easy. Pay them when they are right and dont whrn they are wrong. Most of us get fired for being wrong all the time so ai think its a fair compromise.
It's a beautiful day. Maybe I can get some work done in the yard.
quote:
While it sucks that they miss so often, going with your idea would just mean no more meteorologists. Then you can make your own guesses and be wrong all the time for free.
Im all for it. Then i wouldnt have to listen tl the ******s on the news standing in puddles to show video of floods that never happened.
quote:Someone's forcing you to watch the news against your will?quote:
While it sucks that they miss so often, going with your idea would just mean no more meteorologists. Then you can make your own guesses and be wrong all the time for free.
Im all for it. Then i wouldnt have to listen tl the ******s on the news standing in puddles to show video of floods that never happened.
quote:quote:
You guys understand meteorology follows chaos theory right? And is subject to statistical thermodynamics? This basically means that until we invent a machine that can predict the future with 100% accuracy that weather systems will always be subject to uncertainty and variances with regards to any future prediction. This is also why as supercomputing power has increased that predictions have become more accurate as we can account for more variables in modeling runs.
Meteorological predictions are far more accurate than they were 30 years ago and will be far more accurate 30 years from now. Of course I don't expect the general public to ever understand physics, much less statistical thermodynamics so I expect this will fly over your heads and you all will keep screaming that the meteorologist was WRONG without even considering that they build in probability when they give you the damn forcast because they know they can never be 100% certain. "HURR DURR IT'S NO BETTER THAN FLIPPING A COIN AND A TRAINED MONKEY CAN DO THAT!" No, it's called uncertainty. They are giving you the best available information they have and you should understand that they cannot be 100% accurate. If they are wrong then that means the model run was wrong and missed some variables that weren't accounted for in the base modeling equations.
Getting mad at a meteorologist for being wrong is like getting mad at a seismologist for failing to predict an earthquake or at a psychiatrist for failing to predict a human's behavior. It's asinine and shows your total ignorance of the situation.
Easy. Pay them when they are right and dont whrn they are wrong. Most of us get fired for being wrong all the time so ai think its a fair compromise.
You're the one giving a TV meteorologist, who likely just gets his forecasts from the NWS, credit for being right or wrong in the first place not me. You're the one who actually thinks the person on TV matters. They are there to report what the NWS and ECMWF models predict and to look good on TV. None of them are paid according to what their predictions are at all. This is why I went the environmental air quality route and ultimately became an environmental engineer versus broadcast meteorology after getting a meteorology undergrad. TV meteorology is a joke.
If you want an actual weather prediction from the source and not fed through layers of bull****, go to the NWS and ECMWF models on their respective websites. Using any TV meteorologist is pointless because modern meteorology is almost entirely modeling based, which require supercomputers to run.
Shoulda got a degree in hurricane forecasting. I could have had a drunk uncertain monkey model it and then once a year call in there will be 8 major systems and 4 big huge ones we shall call Earl. That's right, 4 hurricanes named Earl. They'll all hit 7 months from now. Earl gonna **** some **** up. One in NYC, one in Seattle, Miami will get bent over and the last one will hit Corpus.
I understand what you're saying, and I find the forecasts as laughable as the next guy. And put very little stock into them.
But meteorology is not an easy major. We made friends with a couple people in it because they were in pretty much every one of our engineering math classes. Lot of math and science in it.....and difficult math and science.
But meteorology is not an easy major. We made friends with a couple people in it because they were in pretty much every one of our engineering math classes. Lot of math and science in it.....and difficult math and science.
quote:quote:quote:Someone's forcing you to watch the news against your will?quote:
While it sucks that they miss so often, going with your idea would just mean no more meteorologists. Then you can make your own guesses and be wrong all the time for free.
Im all for it. Then i wouldnt have to listen tl the ******s on the news standing in puddles to show video of floods that never happened.
Chita's boobs are quite forceful.
Touch
I'm just making fun.
when they predict a flood, no flood. When they don't predict a flood, we get a flood.
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