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Did a weather guy do your wife Cromagnum? You seem to have a personal vendetta against them every time they are wrong

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LOL. I just enjoy calling out a job where your entire responsibility is to hype up the weather to draw in viewers for ratings. Science be damned if you are wrong most of the time because there are no repercussions. Maybe 30 years ago it was different but ever since TWC came along it has gotten way worse.

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what? how is predicting weather any different than coming up with a financial budget or forecast for a P&L and then revising the guidance as the market evolves? Because that happens everyday in business.

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there's a massive difference between projecting a budget as fact and projecting the weather as fact. No one ever takes a budget to be fact unless they're dumb. The weather? People clean out walmarts and home depots when the weather people predict DEATH AND DESPAIR and then, like clockwork, nothing happens

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Isn't that why it is called a weather "forecast" and not a weather "this is exactly what's going to happen and what time?" No one should ever take the weather forecast as absolute fact unless they are dumb.

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Concrete pours get canceled when rain chances hit 40%.

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***High impact storm system moving into TX***

***Significant flash flood threat Monday and Tuesday***

***Major river flood threat all week***

***Flash Flood Watch issued for the NW 1/3rd of SE TX***

***Coastal Flood Warning for Harris, Galveston, Chambers, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties***

Discussion:
Large scale upper level low over the SW US will edge into NM and W TX today while large conveyor belt of moisture becomes focused over the eastern 50% of the state of TX. A large line of slow moving heavy rainfall has already developed from Del Rio to west of Fort Worth with numerous flash flood warning ongoing. Moisture only increases as this line creeps eastward and expect rainfall rates to continue to increase. All ingredients are in place to produce a significant rainfall event over SE TX:

o Near record moisture levels (PWS 1.8-2.0 inches)

o Strong upper level storm system to the west with highly diffluent upper level flow

o Slow moving outflow boundaries parallel to the upper level winds

o Strong (20-40mph) low level moisture inflow

o High threat for boundaries to become perpendicular to the low level inflow

o Saturated air column

o Upper air disturbances aloft to enhance lift

Flash flood decision tree is suggesting 85-95% probability of a flash flood event over SE TX given the factors in play across the region.

Timing:
Should see W TX line of heavy rainfall reach the I-35 corridor later this morning/early this afternoon. Meso models show a significant enhancement of this activity this evening just east of I-35 which then approaches our NW counties late this evening. NW of a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Huntsville will be under the gun overnight with this slow moving line progressing into that area. Will bring this line into the US 59 corridor Monday morning (800-1000am) periodcould be slower with the line trying to stall out over the areabut thunderstorm outflows can sometimes push things a little more southward than the models expect. TX TECH 3km WRF blows this line through the region fairly quickly and well out into the Gulf of Mexico, but after coordination with HGX this seems unlikely and does not have much support from the other models. Clearly this is showing the meso scale influences that are at play.

Rainfall Amounts:
After coordinating with HGX and WGRFC we are comfortable going with widespread 4-8 inches over much of the regionand this is on the lower end especially the 4.0 inches range. Highest threat is along and NW of US 59 where totals could be significant over a large area. Will leave the upper end isolated maximum loosely defined in the 8-14 inch range. Certainly 10-15 inches in isolated areas is possible, but there is just no skill at determining where that will occur. Think those isolated maximums will be in the region bounded by Houston to Columbus to College Station. High intensity short duration rainfall totals will be likely with the strongest storms and would not be surprises to see 2-3 inch per hour rates.

Hydro:
The widespread nature of the high totals is screaming a major river flood event for SE TX. Highest QPF is across nearly the entire middle and lower Brazos basin/Navasota basin into the San Jacinto and Colorado basins and the NW of Harris Counties creeks and bayous. If these QPF numbers verify as expected a very significant flood of the Brazos River is likely. WGRFC running of the QPF values last evening results in:



Brazos: major to record (Near Bryan)

Navasota: major to record

San Jacinto: major (west fork), minor (east fork)

San Bernard: moderate to major

Colorado: moderate to major

Trinity: minor to moderate

Cypress Creek: moderate to major

Spring Creek: minor to moderate

The QPF spread out over 72 hours across Harris County keeps most watersheds below flood stage, but it is more likely that much of the rainfall will occur in the 24 hours period from Monday AM to Tuesday AM which will put much more water much faster onto the Harris County system.

Overall it looks like a potentially very significant event for the Brazos River basin

Tides:
ESE winds of 25-35mph yesterday have really elevated the tides along the upper TX coast and W side of Galveston Bay. Water levels rose to 3.5-3.7ft last evening resulting in several impacts around Kemah, Seabrook, and Clear Lake. Would not have expected such impacts at those levels and think wave run-up was a big factor in some of the overtopping seen at Kemah yesterday. Tides have shown almost no fall overnight and remain highly elevated with flooding ongoing on Bolivar and parts of the west end of GLS Is as well as the SE part of Harris County. Not likely to see much recovery today with water levels 3.5-4.0 ft all day and expect impacts to continue. Winds turn more SE and S on Monday and that should help lower water levels at least a foot or so.

Severe Threat:
Think this threat is slight. Can't rule out an isolated wind damage report or even hail if the storms really get going, but looking at the saturated profile in place usually is not a big severe weather event for this area. This threat is certainly secondary to the flash flood threat over the region.

Decision Support:

Rainfall Amounts: widespread 4-8 inches; isolated: 8-14 (moderate confidence)
Onset Timing: midnight to 800am (NW counties); 800am to 1000am US 59 corridor (moderate confidence)
Rainfall amounts location: moderate
River Flood Threat: very high
Creek/Bayou Flood Threat: moderate to high
Street Flooding Threat: high
Tides: 3.5-4.0ft through today with minor coastal flooding impacts
Severe: low (mainly gusty winds).

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Holy crap. How come nobody told me that Sci Guy started his own weather blog? I hated it when he left the Chronicle. And this has been going on six months! What the hell?

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Flash Flood Warning for western Harris County until 1130pm.

Excessive rainfall of 1.0-1.5 inches in 30 minutes or less moving across far western Harris County. HCFCD FWS gages showing 1-hr storm totals of over 2.0 inches over western Harris County on South Mayde Creek. Flooding of roadways is likely under this batch of heavy rainfall.

Upstream development over Fort Bend County has subsided, but not sure we are done just yet. Low level speed convergence continues over Matagorda and Brazoria Counties helping to develop additional scattered activity along with maybe some help from back low level ESE winds inland over SE TX. Very subtle factors are helping to produce this rainfall event and since they are not well defined there is little confidence on how this plays out this evening. Think the main focus may shift out west to Columbus to College Station overnight where the low level jet focuses, but this remains to be seen.

Rainfall this evening of 1-2 inches over western Harris County was not included in all the forecasted QPFso go ahead and add on 1-2 inches to all the advertised totals. Probably looking at storm totals of 4-6 inches additional on top of what has already fallen tonight into Tuesday night with isolated higher totals.

Activation time will be moved to 600am Monday instead of 900am. Still the potential that we will need to staff later tonight based on radar trends.

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west side is getting nailed

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