quote:
I don't understand this bleach joke.
quote:We're entering the heart of hurricane season. Any day now, you're going to turn on the TV and see a weatherperson pointing to some radar blob out in the Atlantic and making two basic meteorological points:
I don't understand this bleach joke.
quote:
Turn Around, Don't Drown
quote:There's chatter of things close to Memorial Day in severity. I think we'll have some flooding and tornadoes, but not Memorial Day type damage.
We'll get a weather briefing tomorrow morning, but I just got notification that I may be spending tomorrow night in the EOC. Is it really supposed to be that bad?
quote:quote:
Turn Around, Don't Drown
A guy at my office just replied all this to like 100 people.
quote:quote:quote:
Turn Around, Don't Drown
A guy at my office just replied all this to like 100 people.
I hope you replied all asking him to stop replying all.
quote:quote:There's chatter of things close to Memorial Day in severity. I think we'll have some flooding and tornadoes, but not Memorial Day type damage.
We'll get a weather briefing tomorrow morning, but I just got notification that I may be spending tomorrow night in the EOC. Is it really supposed to be that bad?
quote:quote:quote:quote:
Turn Around, Don't Drown
A guy at my office just replied all this to like 100 people.
I hope you replied all asking him to stop replying all.
This is how companies should do layoffs.
quote:
***High impact.dangerous storm systemheading for SE TX***
Flash Flood Watch issued all counties from noon Tuesday-Wednesday evening
Coastal Flood Watch in effect Harris, Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties
Rainfall:
Significant change is required in the expected rainfall amounts for this eventpotentially leading to a dangerous flash flood event for E/SE TX. Latest model guidance has continued the trend of shifting the axis of heavy SSW and deeper into SE TX. This is requiring the adjusting upwards of rainfall totals over the next 24-36 hours. Combination of "tremendous" tropical moisturerising to record levels for early Marchmassive upper level divergence on the east side of a monster upper level trougha strong low level jet of 45kts feeding a continuous supply of moisture into a potentially WSW to ENE low level boundary all point to a very high flash flood threat from training strong thunderstorms over SE TX Tuesday evening/overnight.
Widespread Rainfall: 4-6 inches
Isolated Rainfall: 8-10 inches
Note that the amounts listed above are still lower than some guidance including some of the HPC graphics and HGX totals which are pushing isolated totals toward 12 inches. Would certainly not be surprised with 10-12 inches, but the narrow training bands that such totals will fall under I have no confidence of at this time. Will favor areas E of I-45 for maximum totals, but the entire area is under the gun!
Large scale rises on all watersheds are almost certain with this magnitude of rainfall and some will likely exceed their flood stages. If model trends and totals hold into tomorrow morningwe are facing a very serious flood/flash flood threat over this region.
Severe:
All parameters a go for a prolonged severe weather threat from early afternoon Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Low level wind fields really ramp up Tuesday afternoon and evening and suspect a tornado and wind damage threat from high precipitation supercells. Cells will be translating toward the NNE at 35-40mph, but some areas will be hit multiple times in training bands. Large scale upper air forcing arriving across the Rio Grande late Tuesday will force a large MCS to form and track ENE across SC/coastal bend into SE TX Wednesday morning. Will maintain wind damage threat with this line along with a tornado threat (likely lower than Tuesday evening).
Tides:
Tides are already coming up with strong onshore winds and the winds will only increase with strong gradient in place. Expecting 25-35mph with higher gusts Tuesday pushing water into the coast. ET surge showing an impressive 2 ft of surge at Galveston and total water level rise up around 3.5-4.0 ft which is close to causing minor flooding and overwash especially on Bolivar (Hwy 87). Could see some issues on the west side of Galveston Bay also.
Decision Support:
Widespread Rainfall Amounts and Timing:
600am Tues-600pm Tues: 1-2 inches
600pm Tues-600am Wed: 3-5 inches
600am Wed-600pm Wed: 2-4 inches
Flash Flood Guidance (Harris County):
1-hr: 3.4
3-hr: 4.0
6-hr: 4.9
Onset Timing:
Noon-300pm Tuesday
Duration:
Noon Tuesday-600pm Wednesday
Severe:
Tornado: low to moderate
Wind: moderate (60mph+ gusts)
Hail: low (1 inch or larger)
Latest (72 hours rainfall forecast):
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fi ... 7392196180
Tuesday (Severe Weather Outlook):
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 7392234677
quote:We are going to wait, it will only take a half hour to get to El Paso if things get bad.
Has Katy evacuated yet?
quote:quote:We are going to wait, it will only take a half hour to get to El Paso if things get bad.
Has Katy evacuated yet?
quote:quote:We are going to wait, it will only take a half hour to get to El Paso if things get bad.
Has Katy evacuated yet?
quote:No, but he does have this very timely asteroid update.
Does the funny weather kid have a report on this yet?
quote:Nope
Has Katy evacuated yet?
