I don't understand why two betting sites have become some arbiter of what's going to happen.

Great, so genpop can bet on who they think is going to win based on feels and that's supposed to now be a legitimate predictor.

It's ridiculous.

Windy City Ag said:

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Nate Silver's model shifted blue in his latest update. It now predicts a 52-48 Senate edge as the base case.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/nate-silver-revises-democrats-chances-102513300.html

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Nate Silver revises Democrats' chances of winning the Senate

Polling guru Nate Silver has upgraded Democrats' chances of winning control of the U.S. Senate in November's midterm elections, with his forecast now giving the party a 75 percent probability of victory.

Silver's FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, published by Silver Bulletin, previously classified Democrats' chances as "Lean D" as their prospects of retaking the chamber improved. The forecast has now moved into the "Likely D" category, marking a further shift in the model's outlook.

FLIPR stands for Forecast with Leading Indicators, Polls and (Expert) Ratings. According to Silver's explanation of the FLIPR methodology, the model combines polling data with other indicators alongside ratings from election analysts.

"FLIPR essentially consists of three different layers stacked on top of one another: polls, non-polling leading indicators (e.g., fundraising, incumbency) or what we sometimes call 'fundamentals,' and then a final layer of race ratings from longstanding outside expert groups like the Cook Political Report," Silver explains.

The model runs 40,000 simulations each time it is updated to estimate possible election outcomes. It also accounts for the possibility that polling errors may affect multiple races at once, rather than treating every contest as entirely independent.

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Id be interested in the specific simulation results where the republican / democrat turnout results represent 2024 or 2022 or 2018. That would be much more telling.

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I don't understand why two betting sites have become some arbiter of what's going to happen.

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The theory is that pure betting markets are no different than securities markets in their amoral, passionless focus on profiting from likely potential outcomes. It cuts out the hope and fear part of the process.

I don't really view that as a good argument due to the many frictions and flaws in the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms but that is the argument.

I do look at them as better options that all the random X/Twitter crap that is obviously manufactured to meet partisan and pre-canned hopes and dreams.

Windy City Ag said:

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Quote:

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I don't understand why two betting sites have become some arbiter of what's going to happen.

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The theory is that pure betting markets are no different than securities markets in their amoral, passionless focus on profiting from likely potential outcomes. It cuts out the hope and fear part of the process.

I don't really view that as a good argument due to the many frictions and flaws in the Polymarket and Kalshi platforms but that is the argument.

I do look at them as better options that all the random X/Twitter crap that is obviously manufactured to meet partisan and pre-canned hopes and dreams.

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Yeah, but most of the people betting on elections in these platforms are people influenced by bold in the first place.

It's a self-reinforcing of dumb.

Quote:

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Yeah, but most of the people betting on elections in these platforms are people influenced by bold in the first place.

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Yeah, betting markets do not meet Efficient Market Hypothesis criteria by any means.

Highest off-year first day vote total in history in Bexar County.

Not a good sign for Republicans.

OldArmy71 said:

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Highest off-year first day vote total in history in Bexar County.

Not a good sign for Republicans.

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Why?

Mike Johnson and other Rs have become increasingly confident and speaking of a Red hold on both houses.

I think come Monday the general consensus will be the Senate remains solid red and that the House will be interesting to watch to watch come election night.

Gingrich with the same maybe even more optimistic outlook talking about a historic surprise.

Keep the popcorn handy.

Jr. jumped into it and got community noted with the above. Pretty disgusting on Vivek's part.

YIkes! Ohio watch this and think about what it means. https://t.co/pUWEgX2sHX

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) October 20, 2026

The mom looks like a crazy homeless person.

AxelFoley85 said:

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Jr. jumped into it and got community noted with the above. Pretty disgusting on Vivek's part.

YIkes! Ohio watch this and think about what it means. https://t.co/pUWEgX2sHX

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) October 20, 2026

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Vivek Ramaswamy is not fit to lead. Watch our new ad. pic.twitter.com/EhWNMdFjjH

— Dr. Amy Acton (@amyactonoh) October 20, 2026

Yeah I think this one blew up in Vivek's face.

Politics ain't always pretty. Again, it's not Vivek's ad. It's also not like it is libeling her as going soft on pedophiles. That apparently is not out of bounds to the left.

Cook Political Report shifts Minnesota Senate race toward GOP https://t.co/RHPzqaPpa8

— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) October 20, 2026

Tafoya is on a tear.

ETA: lol. Moar Democrat socialist tears.

Former Democrat Joe Manchin to campaign with Republican Susan Collins in Maine ahead of midterms https://t.co/8FsoHvaopY

— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) October 20, 2026

Meanwhile in Maricopa County, Arizona. I got this notification from our neighborhood watch. Katie Hobbs is the democrat governor and is running against Andy Biggs.

nortex97 said:

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Politics ain't always pretty. Again, it's not Vivek's ad. It's also not like it is libeling her as going soft on pedophiles. That apparently is not out of bounds to the left.

Cook Political Report shifts Minnesota Senate race toward GOP https://t.co/RHPzqaPpa8

— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) October 20, 2026

Tafoya is on a tear.

ETA: lol. Moar Democrat socialist tears.

Former Democrat Joe Manchin to campaign with Republican Susan Collins in Maine ahead of midterms https://t.co/8FsoHvaopY

— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) October 20, 2026

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They confirmed it was his ad

Ramaswamy's campaign confirms they are behind the ad featuring Acton's mom

Spot will begin streaming tonight, and will be airing statewidehttps://t.co/cLphxycGoG

— Alex Isenstadt (@axiosalex) October 21, 2026

ETA

At a town hall in Westerville, Vivek Ramaswamy addressed a controversial ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother. https://t.co/Eup71qC4BU pic.twitter.com/isW2M7FzvZ

— NBC4 Columbus (@nbc4i) October 21, 2026

Vivek is on point. WTF xis wrong with his opponent? Your own mom thrashes you?

Acton is scum and should withdraw.

PaulsBunions said:

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AxelFoley85 said:

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Jr. jumped into it and got community noted with the above. Pretty disgusting on Vivek's part.

YIkes! Ohio watch this and think about what it means. https://t.co/pUWEgX2sHX

— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) October 20, 2026

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Vivek Ramaswamy is not fit to lead. Watch our new ad. pic.twitter.com/EhWNMdFjjH

— Dr. Amy Acton (@amyactonoh) October 20, 2026

Yeah I think this one blew up in Vivek's face.

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Childhood rape, not really an election winner there. Down goes another Republican.

PaulsBunions said:

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BREAKING: Vivek Ramaswamy crashes to new all-time low in the odds to win Ohio's governor race.

30% chance. pic.twitter.com/Rq4UDsdXpm

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 20, 2026

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update: it's collapsed to 22% at time of writing. spectacular own goal by vivek.

GMaster0 said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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AxelFoley85 said:

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Jr. jumped into it and got community noted with the above. Pretty disgusting on Vivek's part.

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Yeah I think this one blew up in Vivek's face.

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Childhood rape, not really an election winner there. Down goes another Republican.

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lol, hes Democrat wearing the mask of a Republican

Old McDonald said:

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PaulsBunions said:

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BREAKING: Vivek Ramaswamy crashes to new all-time low in the odds to win Ohio's governor race.

30% chance. pic.twitter.com/Rq4UDsdXpm

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 20, 2026

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update: it's collapsed to 22% at time of writing. spectacular own goal by vivek.

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Well when you allow your opponent to purchase stock against you that means you're probably on target it's easy to shift the odds when your opponents dump cash against you.

Windy City Ag said:

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Yeah, but most of the people betting on elections in these platforms are people influenced by bold in the first place.

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Yeah, betting markets do not meet Efficient Market Hypothesis criteria by any means.

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I would like to see data on this, this was a topic at dinner the other night.

flown-the-coop said:

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Vivek is on point. WTF xis wrong with his opponent? Your own mom thrashes you?

Acton is scum and should withdraw.

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Break this down for me please.

Absolutely incredible…

"Wedgewood Polls" just admitted they are a fake polling firm and made up their polls.

Their fake polls have been posted in both the NYT and Nate Silver’s averages. pic.twitter.com/ceZU2NdpK5

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) October 21, 2026

Just when I think the election can't get any funnier, one of the polls used by aggregators such as Nate Silver comes out and proclaims they are a fraud and just proving what trash most public polls are.

Wow.

ETA:

Dude faked a poll of Mississippi and got Schumer to dump money into a race they’ll lose by 22 points

Not the hero we deserve https://t.co/EcsWfPVUAC

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) October 21, 2026

LOL.

I imagine the rest of the ticket frantically begging the President for another round of commentary on Husted’s formidable hindquarters just to talk about anything else. https://t.co/SzSNIQXaxg

— Josh Holmes (@HolmesJosh) October 21, 2026

But no change in House or Senate forecast

Forecast and Polling Average Update:

With the admission from “Wedgewood Polling” that their purported polls were in fact fabricated, we have removed 17 polls from our race-level polling lists and averages.

As polling and averages are a component of our forecast model, we have… https://t.co/70Ts7QXVOt

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 21, 2026

what's funny about Wedgwood statement is that they got caught fabricating data and tried to get ahead of it by claiming it was a social experiment

"we only robbed the bank to show how easy it is to rob the bank"

Ducks4brkfast said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Vivek is on point. WTF xis wrong with his opponent? Your own mom thrashes you?

Acton is scum and should withdraw.

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Break this down for me please.

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voters: i have to choose between food and getting to work

Vivek: amy acton was raped by her stepfather. can she be trusted to lead?

Ducks4brkfast said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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Vivek is on point. WTF xis wrong with his opponent? Your own mom thrashes you?

Acton is scum and should withdraw.

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Break this down for me please.

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Ohio voters have a choice between bad and worse for governor. It's up to the voters to decide who is the less detestable person.

TRM said:

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But no change in House or Senate forecast

Forecast and Polling Average Update:

With the admission from “Wedgewood Polling” that their purported polls were in fact fabricated, we have removed 17 polls from our race-level polling lists and averages.

As polling and averages are a component of our forecast model, we have… https://t.co/70Ts7QXVOt

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) October 21, 2026

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Wedgewood just proved that they can get instant credibility by providing data that supports the liberal media (Democrat) narrative. Facts don't matter.

flown-the-coop said:

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Vivek is on point. WTF xis wrong with his opponent? Your own mom thrashes you?

Acton is scum and should withdraw.

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This take makes sense until you do 10 seconds of googling. The woman lost custody of Amy when she was 12, and stayed married to the man who molested Amy for the rest of his life. The man fled the state to avoid prosecution.

Now Vivek is saying "look at this pedophile enabler who let her husband molest her daughter. See what she says about the girl she was supposed to protect? Don't vote for Amy!"

Amy gets sympathy points and Vivek looks even more scummy. It was a stupid ad and only hurts his campaign.

While Dem Primary voter turnout continues to remain high, the number in Texas I'm watching is the no primary voter…

If that number stays higher than avg then I think the prediction is it breaks D.

I guess Vivek is counting on people not doing the ten seconds of Googling. I agree that this ad is very misleading and low. It makes Vivek look bad.

It is similar to Talarico saying that Paxton let a child molester go free after one day in jail when it was the victim's mother who decided that her child shouldn't go through the stress of testifying against the man, leaving the prosecution with no choice.

All is fair in live, war, and politics but sometimes a little honesty and integrity might not be a bad choice for a candidate.

Old McDonald said:

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what's funny about Wedgwood statement is that they got caught fabricating data and tried to get ahead of it by claiming it was a social experiment

"we only robbed the bank to show how easy it is to rob the bank"

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Yes, I saw that talking point this am from pathetic Nate Silver, who at this point is somehow less credible as an analyst than even the NYT team of propagandists.

Yeah, IDK what the legal entitlements are here, but "we only robbed the bank to prove how easy it is to rob banks" isn't exactly the most compelling defense.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 21, 2026

But he and the other leftists to my knowledge have admitted they broke no laws (other than supposedly soliciting money for polls they never ran?).

It's all really quite comical. It highly likely will cost the Dems the MI senate seat imho, as they substantively helped clear/win the field in the D primary for the soon-to-be losing jihadist.

It's also funny the Marist polls aren't really any better than these fakes, and he accepts those too at face value. Then a few hours before that post above was championing pollsters as having learned so much since 2016, 2020, and 2024 fails (all pushing team DSA-Dem direction).

Again, he just cracks me up. Kalshi and Polymarket are more credible, probably, which is saying something.

2 Edits: had to remove Nate's profanity in the screen grab. He's an angry man. Sorry.

Yes, I agree that is a good comparison. Unfortunately in this case it is the Republican who ends up looking low down for running the ad

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I would like to see data on this, this was a topic at dinner the other night.

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Most of the traditional research on betting markets focuses on the regulated national and state level systems or the much more mature services overseas like Ladbrokes in the UK. Those systems actually show some signs of efficiency based on the academic test of whether odds given are predictive of outcomes, whether you can arbitrage against different platforms, and whether prices adjust to new information in an efficient manner. That was definitely not the case early on with the online sports betting markets.

A few interesting reads

https://theprobmatrix.com/the-complete-guide-to-betting-market-efficiency-what-it-means-for-you/

https://www.reading.ac.uk/web/files/economics/emdp201910.pdf

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/15270025231204997

The new guys in the "predictions markets" on the other hand have displayed pretty rank and obvious market manipulation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/22/cftc-prediction-markets-mentions-contracts-have-manipulation-risk.html

https://www.wired.com/story/over-dollar600-million-traded-on-polymarket-election-contracts-after-races-ended/