***Official Final 100 Days to 2026 Midterms Countdown/Discussion Thread***

73,406 Views | 1091 Replies | Last: 27 min ago by texagbeliever
Old McDonald
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In reply to texagbeliever • 3:51p, 10/27/26
texagbeliever said:
Old McDonald said:
everyone is speculating about the extent to which midterms polling is underestimating republicans. few are considering the possibility that it's the dems who are being underestimated.

Thats because polls are biased to high youth and minority turnout every cycle. So at best it would be the polls are right. It certainly wont be underestimated.

hmm i wouldn't be so sure of that if i were you
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Old McDonald • 4:00p, 10/27/26
Well for Texas you can go ahead and bump up Abbott to 55% and drop his opponent to 45%. As it has been the past 2 elections even with Beto Mania.

Apply that same 3-4 point swing to texas senate and Paxton wins by 3-4points. Which just goes to show you how the turnout numbers are likely judged to get these "competitive" races.
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Old McDonald
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In reply to texagbeliever • 4:07p, 10/27/26
i dunno about that, but all i'm saying is there's no hard set rule that polling misses always underestimate republicans. in fact, the very opposite happened in several high profile senate races during the last midterm election.
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FTAG 2000
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4:12p, 10/27/26
AG
lol. Those pools assume that 1) youth are going to turn out in high numbers (haven't yet) and that 2) 10% of GOP voters are going to switch sides to vote for Transfreako.

I don't know for sure on the first one but second ain't happening
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Old McDonald • 4:12p, 10/27/26
Yeah and 4 years ago Beto and Abbott were neck and neck in polls only for Abbott to win by 10% points. If you dont want to use history to inform you on the present then enjoy your surprises.
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jt2hunt
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In reply to Old McDonald • 4:14p, 10/27/26
AG
Old McDonald said:
everyone is speculating about the extent to which midterms polling is underestimating republicans. few are considering the possibility that it's the dems who are being underestimated.

LOLOLOL
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Old McDonald
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In reply to jt2hunt • 5:13p, 10/27/26
jt2hunt said:
Old McDonald said:
everyone is speculating about the extent to which midterms polling is underestimating republicans. few are considering the possibility that it's the dems who are being underestimated.

LOLOLOL
you're laughing, but senators oz, walker, and masters aren't
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Old McDonald
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In reply to texagbeliever • 5:15p, 10/27/26
texagbeliever said:
Yeah and 4 years ago Beto and Abbott were neck and neck in polls only for Abbott to win by 10% points. If you dont want to use history to inform you on the present then enjoy your surprises.
lol what? the polls consistently had beto trailing abbott by wide margins. the final RCP average was abbott +11, and he won by 10.
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amercer
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6:01p, 10/27/26
AG
Modeling turnout is hard. But pollsters don't like being wrong, so at some point they probably will overcorrect and end up underestimating Dem support.

Also, it's weird to think about a poll when half the votes are already in.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to amercer • 6:17p, 10/27/26
amercer said:
Modeling turnout is hard. But pollsters don't like being wrong, so at some point they probably will overcorrect and end up underestimating Dem support.

Also, it's weird to think about a poll when half the votes are already in.

You are assuming the goal of polls is to be right. Not to get clicks, site activity and references in media publications.
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flown-the-coop
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8:08p, 10/27/26
AG
Libs out protesting Trump in Lubbock. Definite Freako voter in the Superman costume.

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amercer
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 8:20p, 10/27/26
AG
Looks like tech students are the same as always
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samurai_science
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In reply to Old McDonald • 8:23p, 10/27/26
Old McDonald said:
texagbeliever said:
Yeah and 4 years ago Beto and Abbott were neck and neck in polls only for Abbott to win by 10% points. If you dont want to use history to inform you on the present then enjoy your surprises.

lol what? the polls consistently had beto trailing abbott by wide margins. the final RCP average was abbott +11, and he won by 10.

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Old McDonald
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In reply to samurai_science • 8:35p, 10/27/26
the right can't meme
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TX04Aggie
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 9:04p, 10/27/26
AG
The democrat partyreally is a party of freaks and misfits. It is wild. These pictures always look the same
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samurai_science
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In reply to Old McDonald • 9:09p, 10/27/26
Old McDonald said:
the right can't meme

Thats the spirit
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nortex97
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4:39a, 10/28/26
AG
Soetero race/religion bating called out by NBA champ Kyle Kuzma in Michigan. More at revolver link.

Democrats prepare for the mother of all election denials if blue wave fails to materialize.
Quote:
There are several reasons the polls may be off, not least of which is that they aren't much more accurate today than they were in 2016, when many pollsters' predictions were way off. The wild card, then and now, is Donald Trump. Pollsters are usually very good at sussing out when a respondent is not being truthful. With Trump, it's guesswork. Trump consistently outperforms the polls, and there is no reason to believe that will change in 2026.

I believe it is very likely that if the Democrats win the House and Senate, it will be much closer than projected, with several races too close to call on Election Night and a chance that Republicans hold the Senate.

Democrats are still planning to allege Republican tomfoolery with ballots, registration lists, and outright fraud. And if they happen to lose the Senate, the cries of "stop the steal" from the left will be loud and long.

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will25u
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8:29a
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Who?mikejones!
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8:32a
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Dallas82
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In reply to RogerFurlong • 11:26a
RogerFurlong said:
Dallas82 said:

He's campaigning in Oklahoma. Jesus. He won Oklahoma by +34.3. The Republican Senate candidate is leading by 28 points.
The Republican House candidate is up by 9 points. The Republican Governor is only up by 3.7 points.
In a state Trump carried by over 34 points two years ago.
So either they are worried about the Governor and Representive or Trump just feels the need to preach to a friendly crown for a quick ego boost.

In purple states the republicans may not want to be tied to Trump or Vance. Same reason Kamala or Obama's not going to campaign in Texas. Or maybe Obama just wants to preach to friendly crowds for a quick ego boost.


No, Obama went to Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia. All states that Trump won.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Dallas82 • 11:29a
AG
Dallas82 said:
RogerFurlong said:
Dallas82 said:

He's campaigning in Oklahoma. Jesus. He won Oklahoma by +34.3. The Republican Senate candidate is leading by 28 points.
The Republican House candidate is up by 9 points. The Republican Governor is only up by 3.7 points.
In a state Trump carried by over 34 points two years ago.
So either they are worried about the Governor and Representive or Trump just feels the need to preach to a friendly crown for a quick ego boost.

In purple states the republicans may not want to be tied to Trump or Vance. Same reason Kamala or Obama's not going to campaign in Texas. Or maybe Obama just wants to preach to friendly crowds for a quick ego boost.


No, Obama went to Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia. All states that Trump won.

This has been explained multiple times, including directly to you, that Trump is not making campaign stops based on where Rs are most worried. Its calculated on areas where up and down the ballot there is some potential to juice voter enthusiasm... and also places that will generate the most turnout and coverage.

I am going to guess by your username you are a bid older. Continuing to apply old school campaign heuristics to this cycle is a fool's errand. You are welcome to continue to do so, but its old man yelling at clouds.
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will25u
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12:00p
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nortex97
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In reply to will25u • 12:50p
AG
'Don't report the truth or mock us! It's illegal!'

Blue wave fantasists are going to have a long weekend.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:15p
AG
Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.
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Who?mikejones!
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1:21p
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nai06
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 1:46p
AG
flown-the-coop said:
Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.


Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.
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nortex97
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1:52p
AG
JD Vance is supposedly headed for a fraud announcement in MN tomorrow. Could be good.


Caveat, could be wrong, but this could really help in the senate race.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to nai06 • 2:01p
AG
nai06 said:
flown-the-coop said:
Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.


Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:02p
AG
I would expect one or more of these types of announcements daily until Election Day.

Recall some have warned that Trump is playing for keeps. It's about time.
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nai06
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In reply to flown-the-coop • 2:10p
AG
flown-the-coop said:
nai06 said:
flown-the-coop said:
Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.


Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?


It's been one of the worst kept secrets in the state that he lives in a $1.3m house in Florida and not the 1100 sq ft cabin he claims as his residence in the middle of nowhere (Great Bend, KS). It appears he was even worried about the appearance because I read he sold his florida home a week ago so maybe he's moving back?

As far as having his patients arrested, yes he absolutely did. They had unpaid medical debt with him so he sued them. When they missed a court date, he asked the court to issue a warrant for their arrest (via his lawyers) to bring them into court.

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aezmvp
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 2:15p
Who?mikejones! said:

I think this was a deliberate strategy nationwide to do this to feed a blue wave narrative. Depress GOP votes from media picking up polls and then using voter data to confirm. But it doesn't seem to have panned out yet.
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Bayou City
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2:19p
Marshall is running against Adam Hamilton. He's a Methodist pastor. Super nice guy. He was our pastor when we lived in KS.

Great choice by the Ds
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to nai06 • 2:21p
AG
nai06 said:
flown-the-coop said:
nai06 said:
flown-the-coop said:
Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.


Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?


It's been one of the worst kept secrets in the state that he lives in a $1.3m house in Florida and not the 1100 sq ft cabin he claims as his residence in the middle of nowhere (Great Bend, KS). It appears he was even worried about the appearance because I read he sold his florida home a week ago so maybe he's moving back?

As far as having his patients arrested, yes he absolutely did. They had unpaid medical debt with him so he sued them. When they missed a court date, he asked the court to issue a warrant for their arrest (via his lawyers) to bring them into court.



He asked for a warrant someone who owed him money would be required to make a court appearance and somehow that is… wrong? Wow. I see the problem here.

Rs are the party of law and order, I could see why his opponent has an issue with that.

Regarding residency, he seems to have a better claim than Omar to being eligible to run.

For reference, there are residency requirements and they have to be verified. If there was a there there, than he would no be on the ballot. HTH.
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flown-the-coop
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In reply to Bayou City • 2:21p
AG
Bayou City said:
Marshall is running against Adam Hamilton. He's a Methodist pastor. Super nice guy. He was our pastor when we lived in KS.

Great choice by the Ds
like Talarico. Got it.
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Im Gipper
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In reply to texagbeliever • 2:26p
texagbeliever said:
Yeah and 4 years ago Beto and Abbott were neck and neck in polls only for Abbott to win by 10% points. If you dont want to use history to inform you on the present then enjoy your surprises.


Which polls?

He was comfortably ahead in most.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/governor/general/2022/texas/abbott-vs-orourke

I'm Gipper
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