I'd say nothing like him. He had one of the largest congregations in the state in the deep red suburbs of KC.

25,000 active members and largest UMC congregation in USA.

Bayou City said:

---

I'd say nothing like him. He had one of the largest congregations in the state in the deep red suburbs of KC.

25,000 active members and largest UMC congregation in USA.

---

More of a Joel Osteen, Jimmy Swaggert guy.

But no actual Christian leader can be a proud member of the Democratic Party, certainly not their candidate from US senate.

Thems are just the facts of life.

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.

---

Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

---

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?

---

It's been one of the worst kept secrets in the state that he lives in a $1.3m house in Florida and not the 1100 sq ft cabin he claims as his residence in the middle of nowhere (Great Bend, KS). It appears he was even worried about the appearance because I read he sold his florida home a week ago so maybe he's moving back?

As far as having his patients arrested, yes he absolutely did. They had unpaid medical debt with him so he sued them. When they missed a court date, he asked the court to issue a warrant for their arrest (via his lawyers) to bring them into court.

---

He asked for a warrant someone who owed him money would be required to make a court appearance and somehow that is… wrong? Wow. I see the problem here.

Rs are the party of law and order, I could see why his opponent has an issue with that.

Regarding residency, he seems to have a better claim than Omar to being eligible to run.

For reference, there are residency requirements and they have to be verified. If there was a there there, than he would no be on the ballot. HTH.

---

When the majority of your patients are moms, it's still not a great look to have them arrested for unpaid medical debt.

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.

---

Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

---

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?

---

It's been one of the worst kept secrets in the state that he lives in a $1.3m house in Florida and not the 1100 sq ft cabin he claims as his residence in the middle of nowhere (Great Bend, KS). It appears he was even worried about the appearance because I read he sold his florida home a week ago so maybe he's moving back?

As far as having his patients arrested, yes he absolutely did. They had unpaid medical debt with him so he sued them. When they missed a court date, he asked the court to issue a warrant for their arrest (via his lawyers) to bring them into court.

---

He asked for a warrant someone who owed him money would be required to make a court appearance and somehow that is… wrong? Wow. I see the problem here.

Rs are the party of law and order, I could see why his opponent has an issue with that.

Regarding residency, he seems to have a better claim than Omar to being eligible to run.

For reference, there are residency requirements and they have to be verified. If there was a there there, than he would no be on the ballot. HTH.

---

When the majority of your patients are moms, it's still not a great look to have them arrested for unpaid medical debt.

---

Why?

And he did not have anyone arrested. Trying to collect a debt and asking for the respondent to abide by court orders doesn't seem to be nefarious.

Theft of services is a crime, no?

Are you alleging the debts were not real? Or that he broke a law?

This is from @cygnal, a GOP pollster.

Among those who have already voted, 6% of Republicans have voted for the Democratic candidate, while 0% of Democrats have voted for the Republican candidate.

Among Independents, Democrats are winning by 37 points (67%-30%).

Almost all… pic.twitter.com/jl9oNTHtyO

— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) October 28, 2026

TRM said:

---

This is from @cygnal, a GOP pollster.

Among those who have already voted, 6% of Republicans have voted for the Democratic candidate, while 0% of Democrats have voted for the Republican candidate.

Among Independents, Democrats are winning by 37 points (67%-30%).

Almost all… pic.twitter.com/jl9oNTHtyO

— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) October 28, 2026

---

That's why freaks like Talarico will win in TX

TRM said:

---

This is from @cygnal, a GOP pollster.

Among those who have already voted, 6% of Republicans have voted for the Democratic candidate, while 0% of Democrats have voted for the Republican candidate.

Among Independents, Democrats are winning by 37 points (67%-30%).

Almost all… pic.twitter.com/jl9oNTHtyO

— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) October 28, 2026

---

This poll shouldn't be that surprising.

Take F16. We have a number of "republicans" who have real big concerns about "insert trivial issue here" and just have to vote for democrat because that would be better for Republicans in the long haul.

All that to say is this, people lie. One of the most common ways to lie is to push a % at the end.

TRM said:

---

This is from @cygnal, a GOP pollster.

Among those who have already voted, 6% of Republicans have voted for the Democratic candidate, while 0% of Democrats have voted for the Republican candidate.

Among Independents, Democrats are winning by 37 points (67%-30%).

Almost all… pic.twitter.com/jl9oNTHtyO

— The Political HQ (@ThePoliticalHQ) October 28, 2026

---

"Generic ballot".

BS

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.

---

Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

---

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?

---

It's been one of the worst kept secrets in the state that he lives in a $1.3m house in Florida and not the 1100 sq ft cabin he claims as his residence in the middle of nowhere (Great Bend, KS). It appears he was even worried about the appearance because I read he sold his florida home a week ago so maybe he's moving back?

As far as having his patients arrested, yes he absolutely did. They had unpaid medical debt with him so he sued them. When they missed a court date, he asked the court to issue a warrant for their arrest (via his lawyers) to bring them into court.

---

He asked for a warrant someone who owed him money would be required to make a court appearance and somehow that is… wrong? Wow. I see the problem here.

Rs are the party of law and order, I could see why his opponent has an issue with that.

Regarding residency, he seems to have a better claim than Omar to being eligible to run.

For reference, there are residency requirements and they have to be verified. If there was a there there, than he would no be on the ballot. HTH.

---

When the majority of your patients are moms, it's still not a great look to have them arrested for unpaid medical debt.

---

Mom should be able to literally get away with murder.

-Dems. 2026

Silent For Too Long said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.

---

Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

---

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?

---

It's been one of the worst kept secrets in the state that he lives in a $1.3m house in Florida and not the 1100 sq ft cabin he claims as his residence in the middle of nowhere (Great Bend, KS). It appears he was even worried about the appearance because I read he sold his florida home a week ago so maybe he's moving back?

As far as having his patients arrested, yes he absolutely did. They had unpaid medical debt with him so he sued them. When they missed a court date, he asked the court to issue a warrant for their arrest (via his lawyers) to bring them into court.

---

He asked for a warrant someone who owed him money would be required to make a court appearance and somehow that is… wrong? Wow. I see the problem here.

Rs are the party of law and order, I could see why his opponent has an issue with that.

Regarding residency, he seems to have a better claim than Omar to being eligible to run.

For reference, there are residency requirements and they have to be verified. If there was a there there, than he would no be on the ballot. HTH.

---

When the majority of your patients are moms, it's still not a great look to have them arrested for unpaid medical debt.

---

Mom should be able to literally get away with murder.

-Dems. 2026

---

Y'all can try and spin this all you want but he's still taking it in the shorts over having his own patients arrested over medical debt.

nai06 said:

---

Silent For Too Long said:

---

Mom should be able to literally get away with murder.

-Dems. 2026

---

Y'all can try and spin this all you want but he's still taking it in the shorts over having his own patients arrested over medical debt.

---

Enough already.

Let's start with reality vs lies, misinformation, disinformation.

Marshall started a REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER in 1998 with other doctors. This was not some family clinic where Momma June forgot to pay for her pap smear.

Over a 20 year career owning and running a HOSPITAL, having 700 patient ACCOUNTS go to COLLECTIONS that resulted in CIVIL COURT actions is not unusual.

In 81 of those cases, warrants were issued for the respondent FAILING TO SHOW UP FOR COURT. In only 13 of those cases over 20 years could it be confirmed that the lawyers REPRESENTING the HOSPITAL sought for the judge to issue the warrants.

The NY Times was UNABLE TO CONFIRM if any of these warrants resulted in ARREST.


Fact check: Hamilton TV ad says Sen. Marshall had patients arrested for medical debt

Quote:

---

Facts: The ad spot features three doctors work in local health systems, Dr. Steven Owens, Dr. Eric Hockstad and Dr. Allison Cargnel. During the ad, one of them can be heard saying, "He (Marshall) actually had patients arrested for small medical debts," as a graphic on screen notes that "Marshall's 'patients were arrested in 81 cases,'" citing the September New York Times story.

The Times' reporting found that Marshall filed lawsuits against more than 700 patients with outstanding bills during his career as an obstetrician-gynecologist and that patients were arrested in 81 of those cases for missing court dates. In 13 more lawsuits, his attorneys sought warrants, but The Times story said it was unclear whether an arrest occurred.

Citing court records, the story said Marshall's lawyers repeatedly requested arrest warrants in the cases.

The payments patients owed ranged from several thousand dollars to as little as $101, the story said. Patients had their wages and bank accounts garnished and were routinely charged an interest rate of 18%.

The Star analyzed a swath of medical debt lawsuits in the Kansas court system and found that while it's not uncommon for medical providers to sue patients, the 18% interest rate Marshall applied to unpaid bills was by far the highest of roughly 150 medical practices whose public records were reviewed by The Star. The Star found no other medical providers that charged annual interest at 18% or any other specified rate above 12%.

Reaction: Marshall has defended himself on the topic, and in Wednesday night's debate with Hamilton, Marshall said his practice followed the same procedures as other medical systems and doctors and said the patients were a "small fraction" of those he saw.

"This is such a gross mischaracterization of the compassion and love and care that the other doctors and nurses and I gave," he said.

---

It is a gross mischaracterization by the NY Times and other low-information, gullible folks who believe then repeat the misinformation. People should do better, be better when presenting information.

Thread on the collusion of Petola to find and get the decoy Sullivan to run to boost her chances of winning by deceiving the voters of Alaska.

Look at this lede. Decoy Dan, Peltola, and the Democrat Party all denied involvement in recruiting Dan--who registered for the election using a fake middle initial to confuse voters, and who apparently falsely claimed to be a Republican. Unsurprising, but it looks like lies. pic.twitter.com/YPxGnw8qdJ

— Eric W. (@EWess92) October 28, 2026

Also...

DOJ's lawsuit against Alaska doesn't really have any better prospects than before, as a legal matter, but they're reveling in the NY Times story — dropping their opposition to Peltola's intervention and suggesting they will seek expedited discovery. https://t.co/z4jr1skPdB pic.twitter.com/Vyy8ACoW1s

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 28, 2026

BREAKING: Colleague @davidspunt reports via two sources familiar that there is an ongoing DOJ "aggressive criminal investigation" into Daniel J. Sullivan appearing on the ballot for US Senate in Alaska, and the investigation has intensified in the wake of the bombshell NYT report…

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) October 28, 2026

gop pollsters are dooming

From Matt Towery “As we look at early voting it is becoming clear that a certain portion of the GOP base is not planning on voting. The GOP message in terms of paid ads has failed to explain why action on Iran was needed and what the consequences of a nuclear Iran would be. It is…

— InsiderAdvantage Polling (@InsiderPolling) October 27, 2026

Do I need to post all the dooming dems or no?

No at this point just let the surprise to that poster be our bonus.

Who?mikejones! said:

---

Do I need to post all the dooming dems or no?

---

Its a troll account

Who?mikejones! said:

---

Do I need to post all the dooming dems or no?

---

that's just the dems' default state of being

nai06 said:

---

Silent For Too Long said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

flown-the-coop said:

---

Rs in Kansas per Mark Halperin (was on Fox earlier) may be unmotivated as the candidate (Marshall?) was a bit lazy (like Paxton) in getting into the concept of campaigning.

Hopefully, if true, it can be resolved with ED voting.

Overall he expected either a surprise R hold on power or a "blue tsunami". Sort of reminds me of how one ol farmer hedged their brave call for who wins in Texas.

---

Turns out having your patients arrested and not actually living in the state is an unpopular position.

---

Oh, I didnt realize he was determined to not reside in the state and thus ineligible to run for senate. Why is he even still campaigning?

And what sort of LEO or prosecutor was he where he had patients and then had the arrested? Maybe a mental health facility or prison?

Is the Dem candidate one of his former patients? Detainee?

---

It's been one of the worst kept secrets in the state that he lives in a $1.3m house in Florida and not the 1100 sq ft cabin he claims as his residence in the middle of nowhere (Great Bend, KS). It appears he was even worried about the appearance because I read he sold his florida home a week ago so maybe he's moving back?

As far as having his patients arrested, yes he absolutely did. They had unpaid medical debt with him so he sued them. When they missed a court date, he asked the court to issue a warrant for their arrest (via his lawyers) to bring them into court.

---

He asked for a warrant someone who owed him money would be required to make a court appearance and somehow that is… wrong? Wow. I see the problem here.

Rs are the party of law and order, I could see why his opponent has an issue with that.

Regarding residency, he seems to have a better claim than Omar to being eligible to run.

For reference, there are residency requirements and they have to be verified. If there was a there there, than he would no be on the ballot. HTH.

---

When the majority of your patients are moms, it's still not a great look to have them arrested for unpaid medical debt.

---

Mom should be able to literally get away with murder.

-Dems. 2026

---

Y'all can try and spin this all you want but he's still taking it in the shorts over having his own patients arrested over medical debt.

---

I guess if you're cool with people stealing services (whatever services those are) from their providers, that's your jam.

flown-the-coop said:

---

nai06 said:

---

Silent For Too Long said:

---

Mom should be able to literally get away with murder.

-Dems. 2026

---

Y'all can try and spin this all you want but he's still taking it in the shorts over having his own patients arrested over medical debt.

---

Enough already.

Let's start with reality vs lies, misinformation, disinformation.

Marshall started a REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER in 1998 with other doctors. This was not some family clinic where Momma June forgot to pay for her pap smear.

Over a 20 year career owning and running a HOSPITAL, having 700 patient ACCOUNTS go to COLLECTIONS that resulted in CIVIL COURT actions is not unusual.

In 81 of those cases, warrants were issued for the respondent FAILING TO SHOW UP FOR COURT. In only 13 of those cases over 20 years could it be confirmed that the lawyers REPRESENTING the HOSPITAL sought for the judge to issue the warrants.

The NY Times was UNABLE TO CONFIRM if any of these warrants resulted in ARREST.


Fact check: Hamilton TV ad says Sen. Marshall had patients arrested for medical debt

Quote:

---

Facts: The ad spot features three doctors work in local health systems, Dr. Steven Owens, Dr. Eric Hockstad and Dr. Allison Cargnel. During the ad, one of them can be heard saying, "He (Marshall) actually had patients arrested for small medical debts," as a graphic on screen notes that "Marshall's 'patients were arrested in 81 cases,'" citing the September New York Times story.

The Times' reporting found that Marshall filed lawsuits against more than 700 patients with outstanding bills during his career as an obstetrician-gynecologist and that patients were arrested in 81 of those cases for missing court dates. In 13 more lawsuits, his attorneys sought warrants, but The Times story said it was unclear whether an arrest occurred.

Citing court records, the story said Marshall's lawyers repeatedly requested arrest warrants in the cases.

The payments patients owed ranged from several thousand dollars to as little as $101, the story said. Patients had their wages and bank accounts garnished and were routinely charged an interest rate of 18%.

The Star analyzed a swath of medical debt lawsuits in the Kansas court system and found that while it's not uncommon for medical providers to sue patients, the 18% interest rate Marshall applied to unpaid bills was by far the highest of roughly 150 medical practices whose public records were reviewed by The Star. The Star found no other medical providers that charged annual interest at 18% or any other specified rate above 12%.

Reaction: Marshall has defended himself on the topic, and in Wednesday night's debate with Hamilton, Marshall said his practice followed the same procedures as other medical systems and doctors and said the patients were a "small fraction" of those he saw.

"This is such a gross mischaracterization of the compassion and love and care that the other doctors and nurses and I gave," he said.

---

It is a gross mischaracterization by the NY Times and other low-information, gullible folks who believe then repeat the misinformation. People should do better, be better when presenting information.

---

It would be interesting if someone investigated to find out if these 3 docs ever had their offices go after people with late medical bills...

will25u said:

---

Thread on the collusion of Petola to find and get the decoy Sullivan to run to boost her chances of winning by deceiving the voters of Alaska.

Look at this lede. Decoy Dan, Peltola, and the Democrat Party all denied involvement in recruiting Dan--who registered for the election using a fake middle initial to confuse voters, and who apparently falsely claimed to be a Republican. Unsurprising, but it looks like lies. pic.twitter.com/YPxGnw8qdJ

— Eric W. (@EWess92) October 28, 2026

Also...

DOJ's lawsuit against Alaska doesn't really have any better prospects than before, as a legal matter, but they're reveling in the NY Times story — dropping their opposition to Peltola's intervention and suggesting they will seek expedited discovery. https://t.co/z4jr1skPdB pic.twitter.com/Vyy8ACoW1s

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) October 28, 2026

BREAKING: Colleague @davidspunt reports via two sources familiar that there is an ongoing DOJ "aggressive criminal investigation" into Daniel J. Sullivan appearing on the ballot for US Senate in Alaska, and the investigation has intensified in the wake of the bombshell NYT report…

— Bill Melugin (@BillMelugin_) October 28, 2026

---

If Peltola's campaign spent money recruiting him and then paid him, but didn't report it as a campaign expense, that's a federal crime...

I think Peltola's basically finished, which is great news. Too late to really cancel ads/spending for either side though.

Mark Halperin
This is such a dirty trick and will probably decide the race. We know that Mary Peltola’s staff is lying about their involvement in the Alaskan Decoy Dan scam because we have all their text messages.
Credit: @MegynKellyShow @MarkHalperin pic.twitter.com/8kosXG9rxg

— Big Fish (@BigFish3000) October 28, 2026

And so is the jihadist.

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign message is NOT resonating with black voters in Detroit.

El-Sayed is banking on that voting block in Michigan, but from what these voters are saying on the ground, that’s far from guaranteed.

One voter even admitted he’s a lifelong Democrat… https://t.co/UQ3b3OGgSg pic.twitter.com/P4EKpBtNVu

— Overton (@overton_news) October 29, 2026

More El Sayed DSA-Dem civil war voting casualties. Former Clinton admin staffer.

Tommy, thank you for asking. Let me explain why I believe Abdul El-Sayed would be a dangerous choice for the United States Senate and why I believe patriotic Democrats should oppose his candidacy.

1) Support for authoritarianism and censorship: In 2012, El-Sayed signed a…

— Jamie Metzl (@JamieMetzl) October 28, 2026

John Sununu calls out Chris Pappas and Democrats for their campaigning on gas prices while their party has waged war on energy for years:

“The fact of the matter is you voted for $100 billion in tax increases on energy. If you want real affordability, we need permitting reform,… pic.twitter.com/rWrkJh3pAS

— Andrew Kolvet (@AndrewKolvet) October 29, 2026

Well played.

Slightly off topic but I've seen that permitting reform is something that might pass in the lame duck session. It would be a boon for green energy projects as well as O&G because it would strip the ability of the president to just cancel new projects.

https://instagr.am/p/DfAU62eP7BR

Not really a bad thing, agreed.

The collapse of democrats in KS continues. TargetSmart now has the mail/IPEV as D+2 (down from D+4 yesterday and from D+7 at the beginning of this week). Democrats have exhausted all of their high propensity voters while republicans continue to show up in high numbers into ED. pic.twitter.com/AT5j1zUIiq

— Khoa (@1980Khoa) October 29, 2026

Good to see. I had been a bit concerned about KS.

What are we thinking about Maine? I remember in 2020 Collins was on the ropes and ended up winning big.

amercer said:

---

Slightly off topic but I've seen that permitting reform is something that might pass in the lame duck session. It would be a boon for green energy projects as well as O&G because it would strip the ability of the president to just cancel new projects.

---

Assuming, of course, that green energy remains a secondary to tertiary source of production and not a primary means of production.

Gut feeling as of today:

Alaska: DEM (Flip)
Georgia: DEM
Iowa : GOP
Kansas: GOP
Maine: GOP
Michigan: DEM
Ohio: DEM (Flip)
New Hampshire: DEM
North Carolina: DEM (Flip)
Texas: GOP
Minnesota: DEM

50/50 Senate w/ Vance as tiebreaker. I'm not really sure about Alaska, Maine, or Texas though.

JDUB08AG said:

---

What are we thinking about Maine? I remember in 2020 Collins was on the ropes and ended up winning big.

---

It's the same this year, so unless this is the cycle the polls actually get Collins voters correct, she's going to wind up winning by 5-9.

And Troy Jackson seems pretty desperately dishonest, also.

WOW - Troy Jackson is every bit the dirtbag we thought he was.

Imagine trying to take advantage of an old lady like this for a campaign ad…

And not thinking it would come back to bite you. https://t.co/OiFapnqMil

— Matt Whitlock (@MattWhitlock) October 29, 2026

Quote:

---

What are we thinking about Maine? I remember in 2020 Collins was on the ropes and ended up winning big.

---

They had an interview with Nate Silver recently where he talked about the last cycle where the model said one thing and his gut said another. He kept talking about how the model has embedded polling error and was not accounting in his mind for things that traditionally are big headwinds for the incumbent party and at that moment should have pointed to Trump winning.

He talks pretty deeply about how you size up the possible direction of the systematic polling errors and how you have to ask yourself what might cause that shift. In the case of the last Trump election, it was pretty obvious that a mix of social issues, Covid and inflation fatigue, and other factors were headwinds for the Dems that meant the polling errors were undervaluing Republican candidates.

Interesting read in aggregate on his substack.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-good-bad-and-ugly-outcomes-in

Quote:

---

So let's stress-test that lead. What if the polls overrate Democrats by 2 points in every state? Well then, Kansas and Iowa stay Republican. But James Talarico would prevail by 0.6 points, and Troy Jackson would hold on by 0.7 points in Maine.4 Democrats still take the Senate 52-48.

With a 3-point polling error, though, Maine and Texas turn into narrow GOP wins, and Democrats would top out at 50 seats. And with a 4-point polling error, they'd also fail to pick up Alaska and lose Michigan, producing a 52-48 GOP Senate.

---

He asks what are the current factors today that could shift polling error one way or the other and in this case many of them are Trump Admin related.

Maine especially has been hit with Trump Admin trade issues and his ratings are pretty awful there. Energy costs are a huge issue right now.

It seems unlikely she will be undercounted to such a degree this time around.

Ag with kids said:

---

It would be interesting if someone investigated to find out if these 3 docs ever had their offices go after people with late medical bills...

---

"Business who do not pursue debts owed to them are soon to not be in business." - CEO of Confucious Says

nortex97 said:

---

Not really a bad thing, agreed.

The collapse of democrats in KS continues. TargetSmart now has the mail/IPEV as D+2 (down from D+4 yesterday and from D+7 at the beginning of this week). Democrats have exhausted all of their high propensity voters while republicans continue to show up in high numbers into ED. pic.twitter.com/AT5j1zUIiq

— Khoa (@1980Khoa) October 29, 2026

Good to see. I had been a bit concerned about KS.

---

Understanding now that they ran another "pastor" in KS like they did in Texas, then the phrase needs to be to "Pray the Dems Away".

Time for the Good Lord himself to cast out these false prophets.

In KS it is somehow funnier than here though. They found THE guy more responsible for the destruction of the UMC than anyone else, who seems to mainly obsess about gender/sexuality from the pulpit these days, and made him their super christian.

This is funny even for CNN standards imho:

Do the morons at CNN realize how unrealistic it is for a democrat to win TX by 6 pts? They didn't even try to make it look realistic. EV data show that blue counties (e.g. Dallas) have low turnout while red counties (e.g. rural) are showing up in high numbers. pic.twitter.com/x7Wo2vdoUC

— Khoa (@1980Khoa) October 29, 2026

Even if one were to suspend disbelief and think they ran a poll and got that data cleanly, it's pathetic to publish such an unrealistic thing at this point.

We have to pray the Dems away, simple as that.

And yes, that poll was funny and it now seems to be simply of game of how insane polling can be made to look.

Seems almost purposeful this cycle.

A Maine woman claims a videographer told her she would be appearing in an ad for Sen. Susan Collins...

She was shocked when the ad came out, and it was for Troy Jackson.

"If they're willing to mislead me, how far will they go." pic.twitter.com/TZSXCPQOSD

— The Maine Wire (@TheMaineWire) October 29, 2026