marist dropped a turek +8 poll this morning, with him at 50%. it's a massive outlier and the actual race will almost assuredly be much much closer than that, but it certainly explains why republicans are suddenly throwing a bunch of money at iowa and hinson's campaign is sprinting to the middle.

Dubya is getting off the sidelines and fundraising for several senate candidates. This is pretty surprising to me given his unwillingness to get involved in anything political since leaving office.

NYT: Former President George W. Bush is helping raise money for the following US Senate candidates

🟥Susan Collins (ME)
🟥Jon Husted (OH)
🟥Dan Sullivan (AK)
🟥John Sununu (NH)
🟥Ashley Hinson (IA)
🟥Mike Rogers (MI) https://t.co/nxDAdXY8Nv pic.twitter.com/rDHJgSQzYY

— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) September 21, 2026

He's been plenty involved in working the old school conservative social circles to undermine Trump.

He is a despicable human. Weak of mind, lacking in honor.

Republicans need all the help they can get in those races. Glad to see him helping out.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Republicans need all the help they can get in those races. Glad to see him helping out.

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being petty about Paxton undoes any points for helping in my book.

Interesting analysis and insights from a MAGA pollster in this podcast from ten days ago. He gives a wide-ranging assessment of where he thinks things stand.



Trump propagandists and goaltenders won't like what he is saying. But he is correct: a substantial % of Trump's MAGA base are ticked off at Trump and the GOP, and justifiably so.

I doubt the ticked-off MAGA people will vote for a Dem, but they might not vote at all.

flown-the-coop said:

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He's been plenty involved in working the old school conservative social circles to undermine Trump.

He is a despicable human. Weak of mind, lacking in honor.

---

GWB is flawed, as we all are, and he made some monumental policy mistakes and bad decisions. Yet he has 1000 times more honor and decency in him than Trump possesses.

Quote:

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Trump propagandists and goaltenders won't like what he is saying. But he is correct: a substantial % of Trump's MAGA base are ticked off at Trump and the GOP, and justifiably so.

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Yeah, F16 is one of the last redoubts of folks that still celebrates Trump's behavior on Truth Social and elsewhere.

This pollster seems spot on that Trump's public antics are now a liability.

DeschutesAg said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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He's been plenty involved in working the old school conservative social circles to undermine Trump.

He is a despicable human. Weak of mind, lacking in honor.

---

GWB is flawed, as we all are, and he made some monumental policy mistakes and bad decisions. Yet he has 1000 times more honor and decency in him than Trump possesses.

---

oh that's funny.

Yea, not so much.

I suspect many non-fanatic Trump voters have Trump fatigue and they are going to vote Democrat or not at all.

With all the good Trump has done--immigration in particular--Trump's failure to live up to his own promises on war and affordability, combined with the insatiable narcissism, have just gotten too much.

I voted for him three times. There really wasn't any choice. I would never vote Democrat.

But so much of his second term has just been his ego on display, a series of unforced errors in which he has tried to carve his image on history.

I understand the argument for going at Iran, but you can't do that without the people on your side. The people are not on Trump's side on that issue and he made no attempt at all to defend it.

The really disastrous part of the anti-Trump wave is that so many of the Democrats who will profit from it are full-blown Marxists and Islamists.

Economist/YouGov Poll just released for last week.

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_5WiMaRX.pdf

Generic congressional ballot 2026:
Democratic 52% (+1)
Republican 38% (-1)
(Change from last week)

(Registered voters)
Generic congressional ballot 2026:
Democratic 45% (+1)
Republican 36% (-3)
(Change from last week)

(Likely voters)
President Trump approval:
Disapprove 63% (+4)
Approve 35% (-5)
(Change from last week)

(Registered voters)
President Trump approval
Disapprove 62% (+4)
Approve 35% (-5)
(Change from last week)

Generic Ballot polling trend by YouGov/Economist:
Oct. 2018: Democrats +6
Oct. 2022: Republicans +1
Sept. 2026: Democrats +14

Fox updated Power Rankings as well this morning:







https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-power-rankings-democrats-where-could-go-wrong

This is an interesting twist.

I expect it from a partisan opponent but not a sitting GOP Senator:

https://abcnews.com/Politics/republican-senator-calls-judiciary-committee-subpoena-donald-trump/story?id=136648436

Quote:

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Republican senator calls for Judiciary Committee to subpoena Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden
Curtis wants an investigation into the alleged personal use of political ties.

Utah Republican Sen. John Curtis is calling on Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, and Ranking Member Dick Dubin, D-Ill., to subpoena both Donald Trump Jr. and Hunter Biden as part of an investigation into "the use of presidential family relationships for private financial benefit, preferential treatment or access by domestic and foreign interests" that Curtis is urging the senators to open.

Curtis' letter comes after he posted a video on X Friday saying that reports that Donald Trump Jr.'s two-day wedding afterparty in May had been funded by a Russian oligarch with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin "stink" and are "corruption." He promised further action on the topic.

"The country should not have to accept one standard for the family of a Republican president and another for the family of a Democratic president. Nor should congressional oversight begin and end when control of the White House changes hands," Curtis writes in the letter.

In his letter, Curtis raises direct concerns both about Hunter Biden's "substantial business with foreign entities ... while his father held or sought public office" and about "the relationship of President Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., with foreign business figures and the acceptance of significant gifts."

Curtis writes that concerns about Trump Jr.'s activities are "compounded" by his "promotion of family-backed cryptocurrency ventures, his continued pursuit of international real estate deals involving direct meetings with foreign heads of state, and his reported investments in defense contracting."

"These reports raise legitimate questions about foreign access to members of a sitting president's family and whether such relationships can create actual or perceived expectations of favorable treatment," Curtis writes. "They also may create expectations of a returned favor that would not be in the best interests of the American people or our allies, and could even create national security vulnerabilities."

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The referenced "reports" read as one would expect...

Quote:

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The president's son held his May wedding at an exclusive island in the Bahamas, with the oligarch -- Umar Kremlev -- footing a large portion of the bill for the events later that weekend, according to records reviewed by ProPublica as well as three people familiar with the event who spoke with the outlet.

ABC News has not independently confirmed the details of the ProPublica report.

---

For those unfamiliar Curtis is a climate change nut, moderate RINO aligned with the usual suspects of McConnell, Collins, etc.

How he snuck in under 2024 likely has to do with having Romney and his money not backing a true D.

Old McDonald said:

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marist dropped a turek +8 poll this morning, with him at 50%. it's a massive outlier and the actual race will almost assuredly be much much closer than that, but it certainly explains why republicans are suddenly throwing a bunch of money at iowa and hinson's campaign is sprinting to the middle.

---

is this just the Iowa Des Moines Register Poll which had Kamala +3 two days before she lost by 13 points to Trump in 2024?

just a small 56% error!

so New Hampshire will elect a GOP governor

but then turn around and not elect John Sununu as the Senator in the same race?

Brooke Rollins: If beef is too expensive, you can eat chicken, eggs, other great sources of protein. pic.twitter.com/QpmH1fH6uK

— FactPost (@factpostnews) September 21, 2026

Embarrassing messaging. I'd expect this from a Biden staffer

We've hit the "stop being poor" stage.

DeschutesAg said:

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Trump is displaying his Lukashenko and Orban tendencies with his attempted press ban.

Not a smart time for him to do that, not when most Americans were already very concerned about his tariffs, his stupid decisions, his lying, his corruption, his destruction of our economy, and his Administration's constant illegal attacks on the Constitution and our nation's longstanding well-established democratic norms.

---

So, they should instead vote for the Democrats who are currently fighting a civil war against their own people who literally want to get rid of the Constitution. The very same poeple that Democrats enabled by sprinting so far left that they created this monster.

I'm not disputing Americans are concerned about Trump but to turn around and then vote for the objectively worse party is brain dead stupid...just like their last POTUS in office. But many will because they can't think ahead nor think critically. The ability to weigh pros and cons, assess logical outcomes, and assess risk is completely lost on almost all Democrats and for many, many Republicans.

LMCane said:

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so New Hampshire will elect a GOP governor

but then turn around and not elect John Sununu as the Senator in the same race?

---

YouBet said:

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DeschutesAg said:

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Trump is displaying his Lukashenko and Orban tendencies with his attempted press ban.

Not a smart time for him to do that, not when most Americans were already very concerned about his tariffs, his stupid decisions, his lying, his corruption, his destruction of our economy, and his Administration's constant illegal attacks on the Constitution and our nation's longstanding well-established democratic norms.

---

So, they should instead vote for the Democrats who are currently fighting a civil war against their own people who literally want to get rid of the Constitution. The very same poeple that Democrats enabled by sprinting so far left that they created this monster.

I'm not disputing Americans are concerned about Trump but to turn around and then vote for the objectively worse party is brain dead stupid...just like their last POTUS in office. But many will because they can't think ahead nor think critically. The ability to weigh pros and cons, assess logical outcomes, and assess risk is completely lost on almost all Democrats and for many, many Republicans.

---

Alternative is the guy's party in charge that promised peace and prosperity and here we are.

He's not on any ticket, but 100% the driver right now. Objectively worse doesn't matter when objectively worse is now at the pump, grocery store, etc.

This nukes the Democrats

The Dems rely on a billion dollar ballot harvesting machine with tens of thousands of paid staffers who spend 40 hours a week:
- Registering voters
- Bugging voters to request an absentee ballot
- "Helping voters complete the ballot"
- Returning the… https://t.co/8FTw0twePs

— RightWI (@RightWI1776) September 22, 2026

True.

Angela Paxton is breaking her silence on Ken Paxton's Senate race, after accusing him of infidelity in divorce proceedings.

Without naming him, she told a group of GOP women to vote the ticket, "even when we're mad at them"

more from @birenbomb https://t.co/x6MhwmgT0l

— Rebekah Allen (@rebekahallen) September 22, 2026

Texas Tribune LOL.

PaulsBunions said:

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Brooke Rollins: If beef is too expensive, you can eat chicken, eggs, other great sources of protein. pic.twitter.com/QpmH1fH6uK

— FactPost (@factpostnews) September 21, 2026

Embarrassing messaging. I'd expect this from a Biden staffer

---

She is just explaining the obvious. Beef is expensive but a rotisserie chicken is $2 or so per person. Same with eggs and fish. So if you can't afford beef, quit *****ing and eat something else. Same as always.

Anyone in the trucking/ agriculture/ delivery business will confirm that the Democrats Emissions Mandates over the past 20 years on Diesel Engines and equipment have cost much more than the current short term diesel price increase.

'The foolish EGR and DEF engines have cost us Trillions in increased costs, repair, and down time. Owl Gore and Hussein Obama started this BS.

nortex97 said:

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This nukes the Democrats

The Dems rely on a billion dollar ballot harvesting machine with tens of thousands of paid staffers who spend 40 hours a week:
- Registering voters
- Bugging voters to request an absentee ballot
- "Helping voters complete the ballot"
- Returning the… https://t.co/8FTw0twePs

— RightWI (@RightWI1776) September 22, 2026

True.

Angela Paxton is breaking her silence on Ken Paxton's Senate race, after accusing him of infidelity in divorce proceedings.

Without naming him, she told a group of GOP women to vote the ticket, "even when we're mad at them"

more from @birenbomb https://t.co/x6MhwmgT0l

— Rebekah Allen (@rebekahallen) September 22, 2026

Texas Tribune LOL.

---

Angela is being an actual adult. This is the way. You don't not vote Republican, abstain, or vote dem because you're mad. Grow the **** up! It's about stopping communism, open borders, islamism, etc.

Agreed.

Democrats are claiming they're going to flip 4 Trump +11 or greater states, including 3 that are Trump +13 or better, plus flip Collins with a replacement candidate, plus hold Michigan with a very bad candidate who regularly under-runs the gubernatorial candidate by 5-10 points…

— Chris (@chriswithans) September 22, 2026

PaulsBunions said:

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Brooke Rollins: If beef is too expensive, you can eat chicken, eggs, other great sources of protein. pic.twitter.com/QpmH1fH6uK

— FactPost (@factpostnews) September 21, 2026

Embarrassing messaging. I'd expect this from a Biden staffer

---

This is the same argument as when Trump said "I'm just saying they don't need to have 30 dolls. They can have three. They don't need to have 250 pencils. They can have five."

I def think we have some over consumption in this country but I never expected to hear this talk from from the side that is arguing we are currently in the new Golden Age of America.

the Republicans are really gambling that traditional issues...like the economy, inflation, and gas prices...won't impact the midterms very much

From the Marist poll today.

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-september-2026/

Quote:

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Registered voters across the country favor Democrats for Congress by 12 points, but the contest may be less about Congress than about President Donald Trump. Voters are more likely to say their congressional vote is mainly a vote against President Trump than a vote for him. And voters now perceive the Democratic Party as the party to better handle the issues of the economy, foreign policy, and gas prices. They divide about whether the Democrats or Republicans are better equipped to address the issue of immigration. The battle for Congress plays out as President Trump's job approval rating remains under 40%.

---

Ah yes, the Marist poll.

Whites: 81-19 Abbott (+62)

Loses pic.twitter.com/4gfF8XgBZU

— Latinx Adjacent Doctor PhD (@TonerousHyus) September 23, 2026

Paxton overperforms Hinson and Lahn on margin even more than Texas’ R+0.8 margin over Iowa.

Or you could just use half your brain and realize Marist is to polling what the juggalos are to clowns. https://t.co/fLBt9ESk9U

— Chris (@chriswithans) September 23, 2026

I think they mainly continue to exist to influence aggregate estimates for the leftists. Their final 2024 poll on Nov 4th 2024 had Harris 51 Trump 47. So my only credit to them is that at least they don't try to hide their crap late in the cycles.

None of their cross tabs ever make any sense, because they 'smooth' their data to get the outcome they want to project. I'd post more but it's not really worth it on that crap outfit.

W said:

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the Republicans are really gambling that traditional issues...like the economy, inflation, and gas prices...won't impact the midterms very much

---

Historically the party in charge gets blamed for anything going wrong at the midterms and A LOT is going wrong right now.

Prices of everything, esp. gas is a lot higher than 2-years ago

War in Iran

Trump bans MSM outlets from White House Briefings.

We can dive into all the reasons why and explain how it's not the GOP's fault any way you want to twist it, but 75% of American's don't look that deep. They just see a lot of money leaving their wallets at a never before seen rate and will blame the GOP. Independents will vote DEM or not vote and Republicans will not vote or not vote DEM. Dems will always vote for their team, no matter who is running.

Remember the 2022 midterms and that great Red wave we were going to see? Yeah, didn't happen.

Why anyone thinks in this current economy the GOP is going to for sure hole both houses is beyond me.

W said:

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the Republicans are really gambling that traditional issues...like the economy, inflation, and gas prices...won't impact the midterms very much

---

I think the Republicans have a good chance simply because the Democrats have zero leadership right now. The only Dem with any motion right now is the NYC Mayor.

Quote:

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I think they mainly continue to exist to influence aggregate estimates for the leftists. Their final 2024 poll on Nov 4th 2024 had Harris 51 Trump 47. So my only credit to them is that at least they don't try to hide their crap late in the cycles.

---

They do produce outliers. I look at Nate Silver's work on leans and he rates it as slight Dem lean . . .+1. Seems conservative.

More stories popping up that the Hate Americans are paying folks to post their "suffering" stories about gas prices and endless wars.

These guys are paid to post a TikTok or FB video claiming there are in Texas or other "toss up" and get the anecdotal out that are then spread through other paid influencers and promoted on the platforms.

Hell, even Fox had a lady in Texas saying she can no longer afford steak for her teenage son and is worried he will go hungry.

Lots of manufactured "news" this cycle as the libs have no platform and nothing of substance to point to that they would change (that would make things "better").

Now that messaging tends to influence feelings up to the election and this jades polling to make it ever more unreliable, the rhetoric has some effect.

But rhetoric is less effective at switching an actual vote.

And people need to be reminded that Trump and Vance campaigning is not being done in places they are "worried about losing" - that's more horse***** It's being done to counter-program things like these paid influencers / liars and the lies spread by the "Free Press", including "journalist" who may post here on f16.

Eggs and drug prices are down.

Eat eggs, do drugs, profit.

HTH.

But seriously, not everything is higher. He'll, housing is dropping in places and other categories have been stable or down.

And don't give me the "with the price of diesel, everything will go up!". Folks can deal with that when and if it happens, but the "wait for tomorrow it's going to be worse" is never a reason to vote for Hate Americans.

I read twitter a lot.

I see many politicians who are up for re-election boast that they are "recognized" for their opposition to H1B. They know the winds are blowing against H1B and so want to be in with the group even though they have done nothing yet other than tweets.

All midterm posturing, nothing else.

The H1B and OPT programs are a SCAM on the American people.

They were created with one purpose: to replace American workers with cheap foreign labor.

Not on my watch. Honored to have earned an A+ from @NumbersUSA for working to end the H1B and OPT scams. https://t.co/nd5ZC536sa

— Rep. Riley M. Moore (@RepRileyMoore) September 22, 2026